Heatwave, coupled with drought, destroyed a swamp in Pader District. PHOTO/BILL OKETCH
Uganda is seeing shifting patterns of movement, including cross-border movements among pastoralists that bring them into conflict with settled farming communities and lead to inter-ethnic tensions.
Uganda’s climate vulnerability is likely to induce climate mobility with negative consequences if no actions are taken to tame the crisis, a new climate mobility blueprint points out.
The blueprint which analyses the current trends and future projections, states that communities across the country are experiencing mounting adaptation challenges in dealing with climate change-induced hazards including heavy rainfall causing floods and landslides, and prolonged drought.
“These climatic extremes are not only threatening the livelihoods of local communities but are also triggering population movements that are henceforth referred to as climate mobility in Uganda,” the blueprint says.
Climate mobility refers to the movement of people due to climate change-linked environmental changes such as natural disasters, sea-level rise, floods, and droughts.
The document prepared by the Ministry of Water and Environment’s climate change department, Centre for Global Climate Mobility and Africa Climate Mobility Initiative says climate change is having a significant impact on regions such as West Nile, eastern Uganda, including Karamoja, Mbale and areas within the cattle corridor.
Uganda is experiencing increasing climate risk, including storms, droughts, shifting rainfall patterns, flooding and landslides, yet the impacts vary across its territory.
It says presently, Arua has been grappling with extended periods of drought, exacerbated by the significant influx of refugees. The Karamoja Sub-region faces recurrent droughts, posing severe threats to agriculture and pastoralism, which form the backbone of the local economy. Similarly, the document says in Mbale, the vulnerability to landslides is heightened by deforestation and intense rainfall, prompting communities to seek safer locations.
“Despite their distinct geographical and socio-economic contexts, these regions share a common challenge of climate-induced disruptions driving human mobility. In the future, a population shift is projected towards south-western Uganda because of climate change impacts, particularly in response to increases in water availability and crop production. By 2050, it is estimated that 3.6 percent of the population could be on the move due to climate impacts,” the blueprint says.
Current climate mobility realities
Ms Sarah Rosengaertner, the deputy managing director of the Global Centre for Climate Mobility, said the impact of climate change affects a large proportion of the population.
“Where there are hotspot areas, the communities that are being most impacted and we know those impacts look different in different places. There are different dynamics, whether it's flooding, drought, it's related to impacts on agriculture, livestock farming and so on. We want to also look at what are some practical solutions that could really help support communities in adapting and resilience building,” she said.
Ms Rosengaertner said Uganda is one of the champions in Africa for the fight against climate change and its negative impacts. “You have taken political leadership with the Kampala Declaration and we do want to see how we can support Africa as a champion globally. What can African countries do together to address some of these issues?” she said.
“For example, the challenges around pastoralist adaptation are not unique to Uganda. They're not unique even to just East Africa. They're really a challenge across the continent,” she added.
Data from the blueprint shows that as a result of drought, Uganda is seeing shifting patterns of movement, including cross-border movements among pastoralists that bring them into conflict with settled farming communities and lead to inter-ethnic tensions.
“Families and children from areas experiencing drought engage in rural-urban migration as a means of diversifying income. This can create conditions of overcrowding and unplanned settlement in cities and fragile landscapes like wetlands, lakeshores and steep slopes, and increases the presence of street children, who are vulnerable to exploitation,” the document says.
Figures from the Ministry of Relief, Disaster Preparedness and Refugees indicates that in 2020 alone, 65,000 houses were destroyed by floods and 2,187 lives lost to landslides.
The report said government efforts to relocate people from landslide-prone areas often fail as people return to maintain livelihoods and community ties. Pastoralist communities also resist efforts to modernize and diversify their livelihoods.
Refugee influx place heavy burden
The latest data from the Office of Prime Minister department of refugees and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees indicates that Uganda has more than 1.7 million refugees and asylum seekers.
The blueprint says with the mean annual temperature projections showing that projected temperature will increase by 1-1.5°C for most parts of the country, no significant changes in rainfall are projected across the country, except around central western Uganda around Kiryandongo, Kikube, Kyegegwa, and Kamwenge, where precipitation is projected to reduce by 5-15 percent with a slight increase in precipitation in the south-western Highlands by 5-10 percent relative to the baseline.
The blueprint says for Uganda, as for the continent, the modelling projections suggest that most future movements driven by climate impacts will be internal, rather than cross-border.
“Internal climate mobility in Uganda could multiply by five within the next two decades from 500,000 people in 2020 to up to 5.1 million in 2050 under a high emissions and inequitable development scenario,” the document says.
According to the document, already densely settled areas like the West Nile and Kampala, that host large numbers of refugees today are projected to see more severe climate impacts by 2050 that could prompt people to leave while less developed parts of the country, like the Karamoja could see an influx of people in the future due to relatively better climatic conditions by 2050.
Ms Margaret Athieno Mwebesa, the commissioner for Climate Change at the Ministry of Water and Environment, said given current realities and projected trends, the government, working with local leaders, affected communities and partners, should leverage existing laws, policies, and programmes, as well as consider the development of new instruments to advance the following goals and actions.
She said the impact of climate change is real and the country is facing the threat of desertification just like in a number of places within Africa and globally. “We are facing rising sea levels and more frequent and severe weather events that undermine the enjoyment of our human rights, including the rights to life, water, sanitation, food, health, adequate housing,” she said.
“And for us in Uganda, every onset of the rains, we get flooding, get mudslides, we get landslides and it's too much. So it is real. We are facing it. We are suffering it. So there's need for us to take action,” she added.
She, however, said the government and partners are putting together action plans to respond to the impending crisis, and asked the communities not to relax, but work towards averting the crisis.
