Mr Charles Onyango-Obbo
What do a Shs100 million “thank you” payment to Members of Parliament, coffee, the International Specialised Hospital of Uganda (ISHU), the UPDF Military Tribunal, the oil refinery and pipeline projects, and an impending constitutional amendment of the presidential system have in common? Quite a lot.
In recent days, Opposition MPs have alleged that legislators from both the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and “select” Opposition members were given Shs100 million each, primarily as a token of appreciation for their support in passing the National Coffee Amendment Bill, 2024, which merged the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) into the Ministry of Agriculture.
Some sources also told the media that the payments were intended to secure backing for a proposed amendment to the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) Act, which would formally confer broad powers on the Military Tribunal to try civilians after these were recently scuttled by the Supreme Court. Uganda’s Parliament has 556 members, of whom approximately 109 are Opposition MPs. It is possible that 450 members of the August House hit pay dirt.
This figure should lie between 76 and 82 percent (we will see why shortly). That amounts to a total payout of Shs45 billion (US$12.2 million). The payments, if one considers what seems to be the Museveni System’s larger political game, could be only the first installment in a grander project concerning how the president would govern in his final years and the country he will bequeath to his successors.
Among other things, they are probably a signal that the long-rumoured “reforms” to scrap the presidential system and replace it with a parliamentary one—in which the president is elected by the House—could be coming in the months ahead. Apart from everything else, at 81 or 82, Museveni is not up to the rigours of the hectic 24/7 presidential campaigns of the past.
A parliamentary system would spare him the health risks of such a campaign. A constitutional amendment for that requires a two-thirds majority in Parliament (371 votes), which the NRM, even without resorting to the violence that marked the lifting of the presidential 75-year age limit in 2017, would easily achieve with allied independents and “select” Opposition MPs. However, to be safe and ensure a resounding vote, Museveni would need about 80 percent support—hence the wisdom of greasing 450 MPs’ elbows. There’s a wrinkle.
A referendum might be required for such a significant change, as seen in the 2005 multi-party referendum. That would be tight before the January 2026 General Election. This might mean that the January 2026 election would be postponed for many months—via a parliamentary vote. This is where the amendment of the UPDF and Military Tribunal becomes important.
A remake of the law that gives the Military Tribunal sweeping powers and immunities against being challenged opens the door, in all but name, for the imposition of martial law from 2026 onwards. It will not only be terrorism and national security breach laws under which civilians are tried in the Military Tribunal—we could also see a return to the Idi Amin years, when “economic sabotage” offences were tried by soldiers.
Part of the thinking behind this will have developed from the regime’s understanding of the meaning of the opposition the International Specialised Hospital in Lubowa and the Coffee Act faced.
Despite opposition, Lubowa Hospital has so far swallowed at least US$379.71 million (Sh1.4 trillion at 2019 exchange rates). The hospital is a public-private partnership with Finasi International FZC (Italy), which is building the hospital, contracted to operate it for eight years after completion. With an aging leadership, the Museveni System needs a world-class hospital at home to care for its patriarchs and matriarchs.
But most importantly, it is easier for a sickly leader to continue running the country’s affairs from a hospital off Entebbe Road than from Frankfurt, Germany, over 6,000 kilometres away. It also mitigates the increasing risk of Western sanctions. In that quasi-martial situation, for security, you need greater control of the commanding heights of the economy. Right now, based on what is homegrown, it is coffee. The Coffee Act solved part of the problem by allowing the government to assert its authority over coffee more firmly.
But the real deal has been government support for the private company Inspire Africa Coffee’s ventures in coffee value addition, with the bulk tied to its Ntungamo factory. So far, the government has provided it with at least Sh292.6 billion (about US$79 million), with more yet to come.
The second element of this control of the economy is the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), stretching 1,443 km from Kabaale to Tanga in Tanzania. As of March 2025, over 50 per cent of the pipeline has been laid. Completion is projected for July 2026, though some reports suggest delays could push this to Quarter 4 of 2026 or early 2027. Alongside this is the oil refinery.
Financing has reportedly been secured, with construction possibly starting later in 2025–2026, aiming for 2028–2030 completion. Opposition to Lubowa Hospital, control of coffee, and especially the oil pipeline could all land people before the Military Tribunal for “economic sabotage” soon. And if the political cost of it all becomes too high? No worries—Museveni would no longer personally face angry citizens in direct campaigns for the presidency.
With Shs100 million+ in their accounts, MPs would reliably elect him president. Witness a cunning architect of plans, though frequently in the past they have dissolved into glorious failures. You can’t hang on your hopes on that.
Mr Onyango-Obbo, writer, and curator of the “Wall of Great Africans”. X@cobbo3
