Charles Onyango-Obbo
In 2025, the Central African Republic has the highest proportion of children in the world—56.2 per cent of its population is under 18. Nigeria has over 112 million children, roughly equivalent to the entire population of the Philippines, the world’s 13th most populous country.
Uganda is not far behind. With a median age of just 16.9, it ranks among the youngest countries in the world. According to Visual Capitalist, by 2050, two in every five children worldwide will be born in Africa. By 2100, half of the world’s children will be sub-Saharan. The continent is becoming the world’s baby factory.
This is no small matter. While much of the world is ageing, Africa—and especially Uganda—is teeming with youth. Japan, for instance, has a median age of 48. China’s is 38. In Europe, schools are closing. Toy manufacturers are folding. Governments now offer cash incentives simply for couples to have babies.
In contrast, Uganda’s playgrounds, trading centres and villages resound with youthful energy. We are entering a world divided in two: those with children, and those without. And in such a world, children are not merely cherished—they are power.
Taking a bold look at the near future, childbearing may no longer be just a personal choice. It could become a marker of national strength. Just as countries compete over oil and minerals, they may soon compete for people.
What if countries like Germany or South Korea begin offering Ugandan families land, jobs or citizenship in return for relocating and raising children? What if “child-poor” nations use trade agreements or visa schemes to tap into Africa’s baby boom? Some are already taking steps.
Hungary offers generous family support. Women with four or more children are exempt from income tax for life. Families may receive housing loans of up to about Shs25 million, which reduces with each child born. South Korea, with the world’s lowest birth rate (0.72 children per woman), provides new parents with the equivalent of about Shs5.5 million as a childbirth grant, and up to Shs1.3 million monthly in child support.
Singapore gives close to Shs28 million per child in cash bonuses, plus tax breaks and housing benefits. In Japan, small towns offer up to Shs10 million per child to families willing to settle and raise children in depopulated areas.
These payments are rising as the crisis deepens. Some experts predict that in 20 to 30 years, being a full-time mother in these countries could earn more than a university graduate’s salary—especially if birth rates continue to fall.
In Kenya and Rwanda, governments are already using mobile money and digital ID systems to deliver public services. Uganda could follow suit, turning childbearing into a formalised form of work, where mothers receive baby bonuses through MTN Mobile Money (MoMo) or Airtel Pay.
Now imagine the future taking another step forward. Scientists are developing artificial wombs—machines capable of growing babies outside the human body. In countries where women are not having children, this may become the next frontier.
Picture a clinic in Kampala growing babies—not born in hospitals, but developed in machines. It sounds like science fiction, yet it is already undergoing trials.
And what might that mean for Uganda, where ethnicity continues to shape everything from politics to marriage?
If babies are created in laboratories, they may not inherit clan or ethnic identities. No Baganda, Banyankole, Jopadhola or Acholi. No totems. They might simply be Ugandans—or even global citizens. This could mark the start of a truly post-tribal generation.
Another question arises: would a world filled with rare, valued children be more peaceful? Perhaps.
If children become too precious to risk, countries might shy away from sending them to war. Instead, machines would fight on their behalf. But that does not guarantee peace.
If millions of young people grow up without jobs or land, their energy could turn volatile. Kenya’s recent Gen-Z protests showed what happens when youth, frustrated by unfair taxes and a bleak future, take to the streets. A youth surge, if mishandled, can spark more instability than opportunity.
Like many other nations, Uganda also faces a formidable challenge—climate change. Rainfall patterns are shifting. Crops are failing. Lakes such as Victoria are shrinking.
By 2050, much of East Africa’s prime farmland may be gone. Ugandan cities like Gulu and Mbarara could be overwhelmed with unemployed youth. By then, Uganda’s population is projected to surpass 100 million, with nearly half under 18. That would give Uganda more children than Germany has people today.
If Uganda invests in education and employment, it could command global influence. If it falters, it risks becoming a battleground for child-poor nations seeking to exploit its most valuable resource: its children. In fact, if you think of the young people enduring slave-like working conditions in the Gulf, the first phase of this is already under way.
The author is a journalist, writer and curator of the "Wall of Great Africans". X@cobbo3
