Writer: Karoli Ssemogerere. PHOTO/FILE
The situation in Goma is of grave concern. M23 rebels have captured Goma. The DRC may be sliding back into four semi-formal regions under the same flag. This vast country the size of Western Europe has great potential but it is inhibited by decades of violent conflict, more than 30 years of different levels of armed conflict, from insurgency and worse.
This makes a political solution even more urgent. In the last election, President Tshisekedi won 73 percent of the presidential vote in 2023 but nine opposition candidates signed a declaration rejecting the results. The gains from modest reforms and, adoption of proportional representation for example are invisible due to inherent mistrust among its elite. Congo has 25 provinces plus the capital Kinshasa. At independence, Congo was divided into six provinces, Equateur, Kasai, Katanga, Kivu, Leopoldville, and Orientale. Political thinking and strategy are still dominated by this mindset, mineral-rich Kasai, the Kivu region is closely associated with Rwanda and Burundi.
In 2022, the DRC joined the East African Community sharing membership with Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi. There was fresh hope that inside the EAC, they would be able to resolve their differences. However, the DRC like Tanzania maintains a leg in SADC, the South African Development Community of the former frontline states. It is little wonder that in the latest blow-up, President Kagame of Rwanda had harsh words for his South African counterpart, President Ramaphosa.
Conflict in the DRC has a destabilising effect on the security of both Uganda and Rwanda. In the 2023 flareup, rebels from the DRC crossed over into Uganda. In Rwanda the tension will take decades to fully resolve. Inside the EAC, persons of Rwandan descent are the largest sub-group in the community numbering more than 40 million people. Their issues require attention at the highest levels inside the community. The memories of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, were a punctuation of earlier conflicts which like the later conflict have also looped in many foreign powers. The DRC is a vast landmass, it's a hydro-resource with the capacity to light up the entire Central Africa with cheap electricity but also an inferno.
The DRC is home to both strategic and precious minerals. Historically the source of gold and diamonds, it is also the source of the following industrial minerals, copper and cobalt. Lastly, cobalt is a source of lithium used in the making of electrical batteries used to power electric cars, that promise to reduce the dependence on oil. It is little surprise also that ISIS elements have appeared in the DRC in the same way that they have entered and now run another mineral-rich area, the Darfur region in Sudan.
It is a pity that Uganda that has renovated its chancery buildings from a state of near collapse and derelict appearances lost its buildings to vandalism. An embassy is an inviolate premise, a foreign territory indeed. This is bad for diplomacy. It is important for the DRC not to bring itself to a point of non-dialogue with its neighbours, Rwanda and Uganda. The tension over unpaid DRC arrears to the EAC seems partly resolved increasing the impetus of the Community to step in.
There is a reason of the peace objective of the community. After the Second World War, Europe found itself divided into two blocs, the West and countries east of the Iron curtain. While the formation of NATO and its Soviet-led counterpart the Warsaw Pact bought Europe 45 years of no conflict, the collapse of the Iron Curtain unleashed two decades of war starting in the former Yugoslavia. After a lull in hostilities, Europe is staring Russia in the eyes, courtesy of the Ukrainian conflict. The DRC is a potential fireball to start a simmering conflict joining other conflicts that are jeopardizing Africa’s century in Sudan, Ethiopia, Mozambique.
Low-intensity conflicts in Cameroon, Nigeria. Military putsches and coups in Central and West Africa. If the DRC implodes it will make all these look like child’s play.
It is important for the DRC not to bring itself to a point of non-dialogue with its neighbours
Karoli Ssemogerere
Talking Point
Mr Ssemogerere is an Attorney-At-Law and an Advocate. [email protected]
