Mr Nicholas Sengoba
Today being the last day of the year, it is only natural to anticipate what the next one bears. Uganda for the last 38 years has been configured to rotate around politics; the centre of which is (the perpetuation of) President Yoweri Museveni and by extension the NRM party. It is not difficult to see why this is so.
As an aid-receiving country, we hardly produce anything on our own that is newsworthy in manufacturing, ICT, infrastructural development, science and technology, etc unless of course, it is about corruption or some mischief. So if any political force rises or falls it is judged against their ability to uproot Museveni.Ever since the youthful and popular Afro Reggae star, Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, came to the political stage in July 2017 when he won the Kyaddondo East by-election, he has been that force. Just like it happened to FDCs Dr Kiiza Kifeefe Besigye, a bush war comrade, personal doctor of Museveni, and four time presidential election candidate, Bobi Wine has met with the wrath of Museveni including the kitchen sink.
After many dismissed him as a ‘mere’ musician and drug addict, Bobi Wine a first timer in January 2021 stunned many. His newly formed party, the National Unity Platform (NUP), managed to garner 57 MPs. As if that was not enough, NUP dislodged NRM and Museveni in the populous Buganda region, which for the last 25 years had been their granted staple.Very many big-wig NRM politicians in Buganda fell by the wayside. Since the seat of government and almost every serious economic activity is in Buganda it was a blow to Museveni.
It meant as veteran journalist Timothy Nyakahuma Kalyegira wrote, that Museveni would have to embarrassingly endure five years of living and working closely among people who had rejected him. Museveni a solider per excellence, is not known to walk away from challenges with his tail between the legs. He is known to love a fight and take it to whoever proposes.
The goal for Museveni and NRM in 2025 will be to recapture Buganda which with a population of over seven million Baganda, will be the centre of political activity. The challenge for Museveni (79) though is that most of the population is below the age of 35 and were born after Museveni came to power. Many of them identify with Bobi Wine (42) who is viewed as one of them. They don’t buy into the story of Museveni the messiah who corrected the ills of the past bad regimes they did not witness. They want to experience another president.
Both Bobi Wine and Museveni have their work cut out. Museveni the guerrilla with experience, has a long list of weapons he will employ to contain and if possible, obliterate NUP. The old one is to deploy the coercive instruments of the state to visit violence on NUP and cow its supporters. The youth in Buganda may be pushed to the wall leading to a violent response. The charge of treason in the military court martial will come in handy. Bobi Wine will find it hard to campaign, especially in regions outside of Buganda to avoid spreading ‘the Buganda effect.’
A wounded Bobi Wine will then be confined to Buganda and projected elsewhere as being tribal. He may even cave in to pressure and bitterness, forcing him to make ethnically loaded statements out of frustration.
Next on the list will be the soft power that will see the creation of enemies within NUP to fight their own. It will keep Bobi Wine busy firefighting, in-house. Already Bobi Wine has the challenge of eliminating what are called moles or the NINOs; (NUP in name only) the people who are not for the cause like allegedly Hon Abed Bwanika. At the moment he is fighting to consolidate his hold on the party to maintain and increase its share in Buganda, and Uganda.
To weaken it further, there will be splits and alliances to rock the foundation of NUP. Already the Democratic Alliance of Mathias Mpuuga, a former vice president of NUP who was punished for taking a Shs500 million ‘service award’ from Parliament, is being touted as such. There will be a lot of buying off and selling of souls to disorganise the NUP with news of crossings to NRM being given ample space in the media. We are also likely to see the emergence of what people call a ‘Muganda Clown.’
This is a common feature in all Ugandan elections in the 25 years. This is an unserious character who plays the Shakespearian fool or the village drunk. He has the capacity to crisscross the country collecting signatures and all that is needed to qualify for nomination. Then he fails to fuel his car to campaign and makes outrageous statements in makeshift English.
Such things steal the fire of seriousness from the election and to some give the impression of Baganda ‘not being serious political players.’ These may be associated and mentioned in the same breath as the main Muganda candidate who in this case is Bobi Wine.
Another development we are likely to see in gerrymandering within Buganda is to create small safe havens and domains to sneak in MPs other than those of NUP. They could even be from the opposition but don’t see eye to eye with NUP. Next year will see a lot of money poured into the Buganda region for ‘development,’ with promises of more if the ‘right’ MPs are sent to work with the President.
Museveni will pitch in the region making extensive tours ostensibly for poverty alleviation and wealth creation, that will keep him on the ground.We should not be surprised if within the year parliament actualises the rumoured electoral reforms.
The most interesting one among them being changing from a presidential to a parliamentary system. It will mean that NUP which will be restricted in its campaigns in areas outside of Buganda, will have no chance of meaningfully nominating MPs there. That will bury their chances of having a fighting chance at the top.Notable that even without this it is already a tall order for NUP. Museveni appoints the people who run the election and the judges who arbitrate in case the results are disputed.
He also has the instruments of violence to take care of those out of line and the money to buy peace.The crucial vote of the pretentious international community is still in his favour too, as he does their bidding in the region and opens Uganda’s economy to them.But all this will not be enough to assuage the ego that is bruised by being beaten in the heartland of Uganda. That is why the battle for the soul of Buganda will be an interesting one to watch.Have a Happy and Blessed New Year.
