
Mr Nicholas Sengoba
For most people watching Ugandan politics, the most intriguing issue is; who is coming after the 80-year-old President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni? The octogenarian has been at the helm for half his life and the treads are wearing thin.
Writing on his X handle on the January 6, veteran journalist and columnist, Charles Onyango-Obbo cryptically claimed “There’s incredible noise in Ugandan politics, and wise heads are saying ignore the noise and pay attention to the signal.
So, what might be the signals? They say (a) a major political transition could be underway (b) a powerful figure is unwell and people are positioning -just in case (c) a massive military purge is underway. What signals are you reading?”
In the last couple of days, many things happened that caught our eye. The gaffer of Uganda’s army Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who also happens to be the first son, went off, came on, and eventually had his X (formerly Twitter) social media account closed.
He set his sights on opposition leaders, baying for their blood. First was National Unity Platform’s Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine whom he contemptuously refers to as ‘Kabobi.’
He threatened to behead him. Then he chillingly informed Dr Kizza Besigye the four-time former presidential election contender -then of Forum for Democratic Change, that he would hang him on the tree of traitors on Heroes Day.
When the MP on the Committee of Defence of the 11th Parliament called Muhoozi out, he dismissed them as ‘clowns’ whose ‘necks have grown too fat from stealing money from us.’
He added them to the list of those to be killed by the hangman’s noose.
Muhoozi and his outrageous tweeting on almost everything from women, wine, and war has been extensively discussed for quite a while now. They have informed many about what he is and what he stands for.
In the book, The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene, two laws; 3 and 4, are relevant to today's offering.
Rule three advises that one conceals their intentions and leaves others guessing. It makes them an enigma. It curtails the ability of their rivals to conjure ways of confronting them. Law number 4 instructs that one always says less than is necessary.
Similarly, it gives one’s contenders the headache of establishing what exactly is in their minds and the directions they are taking, thwarting the ability to lay an ambush.For more than two decades, Ugandans speculated about a ‘Muhoozi project’ -one that would see him replacing his father.
Some like Gen David Ssejusa ended up fleeing to exile. Thanks to X we now clearly know Muhoozi’s intentions on the matter of his ambitions to be president of Uganda. Those who have similar ambitions clearly know their opponent in Muhoozi.
His rather erratic tweets, which the Rwandan President Paul Kagame offered in jest to edit for Muhoozi, have made a comment about his suitability for high office and left many talking. It has left many even within the NRM not sure if ‘their thing’ would be safe with the ‘younger people.’
In the middle of all this, last week the president’s younger brother (Muhoozi’s uncle), Gen Caleb Akandwanaho, aka Salim Saleh, celebrated his birthday in Gulu.
The media gave it wide coverage. Saleh whose name has popped up several times in corruption scandals, was praised with superlatives. DP president Nobert Mao put his goodness to being brought up under Christian principles.
Others highlighted his courage, leadership skills, generosity, sincerity, and development orientation. The sly retired army officer is known to keep most of his cards to his chest and works very well underground.
Researcher Fred Smuts Guweddeko also a veteran of the bush war, once wrote that Saleh’s greatest strength is concealing who he is. It often makes him pass off as a simpleton and yet in reality he is very intelligent, shrewd, strategic and is far-sighted in matters of realpolitik.
What caught the eye of many is that fact that has been hiding in plain sight.
Salim Saleh is ‘only’ 65, which makes him a spring chicken in comparison to his 80-year-old brother. Age wise he is where Museveni was in 2010.
Uganda currently runs a personalised, hybrid political system that Museveni and his confidants have developed over the years. It has the military in the middle of the picture and a strong hand on the economic matters of the country.
The judiciary and the legislature work with the full knowledge of the weight of the military in the political set up of Uganda. The military has once in a while raided the courts to challenge decisions. Same has happened in parliament.
Most of the democratic processes like elections are events that can largely be predicted and are viewed by some as a formality.In almost every sphere there is a parallel structure to the official and gazetted one. At times the informal one is even better funded and has more influence to get things done.
Saleh has been at the heart of this arrangement for years. In some circles, he is viewed as the de facto number two in the country. Many from top government officials in all arms of the government to desperate musicians, journalists, veterans, religious leaders, etc, who want things done, and money too, trek to his station in Gulu or Namunkekera to see him.
His generosity does not leave out even the most vocal and influential opposition politicians who find themselves in financial trouble. Saleh has been a vital point man in the prudent scheme of buying peace using money and favours.
It is responsible for the creation of the opposition NRM desires; a friendly one.After 2026, people like Saleh are likely to have a bolder appearance using the informal structure to determine the composition of those that will lead from 2031. This is irrespective of whether Museveni will still be available as a viable leader or not.
It is unlikely that these matters will be left to the ‘risk’ of democratic elections. It is also unlikely that a much younger generation will be given a free reign without the firm hand of the veterans of 1986 ably represented by Saleh.
Uganda is likely to see the Cuban arrangement. Fidel Castro was prime minister between 1959 and 1976 after forcing out the Fulgencio Batista dictatorship in January 1959. He then held on as president between 1976 and 2008, when he handed over the baton to his younger brother Raul Castro.
Raul took it up to 2019 leaving it to Miguel Díaz-Canel who is in charge to this day.If not Saleh then it is someone whose actions he is capable of controlling. That is why NUP should bother less about the red herrings and set sights on Saleh.
X : @nsengoba
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