Author: Asuman Bisiika. PHOTO/FILE
The last General Elections were held mid-January 2021. Assuming elections will be held mid-January 2026, Ugandans are only one year away from polling day of the 2026 Elections.
And in this fair country, my experience is that the electoral process is divided into two. There is the electoral process managed by the Electoral Commission. And then there is Mr Museveni's election campaign (which also takes on the character of a national phenomenon).
Yet that is not what brings me here. I am here to share with our dears what we think will be the possible scenarios in the lead-up to the 2026 Elections. There once was a man called Muhoozi Keinerugaba. The huffing and puffing he manifested were so strong that some people started aligning themselves with his possible candidature and victory in the race for the presidency.
As I write this on a Thursday afternoon, one would be better advised to forget the Muhoozi Keinerugaba candidature in the 2026 Presidential Elections. Gen. Muhoozi Keinerugaba has made hints on a possible candidature in 2031. But the material reality is that Gen. Muhoozi Keinerugaba has to hedge his candidature on Mr. Museveni's an unexpected decline to stand.
Tough. Mr Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu is prepping for the presidential race of the 2026 eneral Elections. Mr. Ssentamus presidential candidature is very necessary for the National Unity Platform to win parliamentary seats.
There is a rumour that Mathias Mpuuga may also offer himself to run for president. I would advise him against standing in these elections as a presidential candidate. He would do better fighting to secure his parliamentary seat. Once in the next parliament, he can use his national profile to start preparing for 2031. Col. Dr Kiiza Besigye is quoted as saying he cannot participate (as a candidate) in elections organised under the Museveni regime.
Even I, for the graduated degeneration of the electoral processes since 1996, would not wish unto Dr. Kizza Besigye another violent electoral process. Mr. Norbert Mao is expected to be a no-show (unless something unusual happens.
Yes, something as unusual as some strong voices calling for a boycott). Mugisha Muntu may stand; if only for the purposes of consistency and building the profile of his political party. So, in the absence of Kizza Besigye, Mpuuga, and Nobert Mao, we are likely to have Mr. Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu and Mr. Museveni as front runners. But since Mr Museveni always wins elections organised by his government, the focus has shifted to parliamentary seats.
So, more focus will be put on possible winners of the parliamentary seats. And since Museveni's NRM always wins the majority of parliamentary seats, opposition political parties limit their interests to which party has more MPs. My observation is that every election year, Mr. Museveni always switches of most aspects of foreign policy.
So, Uganda's ambivalent stance on the DRC-Rwanda conflict is likely to continue this year (thereby wasting another year of opportunities for trade with the DR Congo). Let me be the first person to say it: Uganda's appeasement policy towards Rwanda has blinded it to the bilateral opportunities the DR Congo offers.
Appeasement is a deliberate decision by a country to avoid hot confrontation by all means with an unfriendly (or aggressive) country. The appeaser attempts to talk an aggressive country out of its aggressive stance by offering some concessions and friendly bilateral agreements (some of secret and informal).
To appease Rwanda, Uganda has had to take a neutral stance towards the M23. How Mr Museveni reconciles his neutral stance on M23 with DRCs offer to conduct a joint operation (Operation Shujaa) to fight Ugandan rebels, only the gods know.
The writer, Asuman Bisiika is the former executive editor of the East African Flagpost.
[email protected]
