Learn from the past to improve food security

The food price crisis of 2007-2008, Covid-19, the Russia – Ukraine War, and climate change have exposed the fragility of food systems. The greatest risk lies in refusing to learn from lessons of the past.  
At the start of 2022, we were already facing the prospect of a food crisis. Even before the first Russian tank rolled across Ukraine’s borders on February 24, food prices had tipped record highs as the world struggled to recover from Covid-19 to repair disrupted supply chains and soaring fuel and gas prices. 

But a conflict involving two of the world’s largest wheat exporters, and major producers of fertiliser, maize and vegetable oil, have inevitably driven prices even higher and, once again, pushed the issue of global food security into sharp focus.
Russia and Ukraine together account for roughly 30 percent of the world’s wheat and barley exports, a fifth of its corn trade and almost 80 percent of sunflower oil exports. Most of their wheat production is imported by countries in the Middle East and Africa, with some 50 countries depending on Russia and Ukraine. 

Warfare, port blockades and international sanctions have reduced these exports, and supply uncertainties have already pushed wheat prices to around $11 (Shs41,000) per bushel, a level last seen in 2008. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) food price index soared last week to a record high. 
The situation is further compounded by rising energy prices, and disruptions to the supply of fertilisers.  
The US-based Centre for Global Development estimates that high food and fuel prices will push 40 million more people into extreme poverty.  
In Tunisia, the fear of food shortages combined with the imminent arrival of Ramadan, caused panic buying and emptied supermarket shelves. Kenyans are protesting rising food prices on social media with the hashtag #lowerfoodprices. Thousands of maize farmers in Ethiopia have been protesting soaring fertiliser prices. And let us not forget that it was rising food prices that led to the 2019 Sudan coup and the Arab Spring rebellion of 2008.

The food crisis of 2007-2008 suggests important lessons for us to mitigate a food crisis this year.
First, cooperation between countries matters, sending important signals to markets that governments and the private sector take the problem seriously.  
Second, take concerted action to trade more, easier, faster.  Allow food to be traded and attack non-tariff barriers that are the most serious limitations to trade.   
Third, governments and development partners should urgently plan for the social and humanitarian consequences of a food crisis.  Social safety nets should be strengthened at least temporarily, and humanitarian aid planned for the most vulnerable. 
 
Last and perhaps most importantly, governments and partners must go back to basics: that African economies and livelihoods are built on agriculture. More than 70 percent of the population is involved in farming, but the vast majority of these are smallholdings with significant exposure to environmental and economic shocks. 
African farmers, if given the opportunities that their European, Asian and North American counterparts have, can increase massively their productivity and grow their businesses.  

At the same time, soaring fertiliser prices must be addressed with urgent action to increase efficiency.  Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) has promoted technologies that can reduce cost to the farmer including the use of blended fertilisers, as we already see in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. 
This is the time for African governments to give a strong signal of support to the agriculture sector.  Start by reducing redundant regulation, and support SMEs and farmers’ cooperatives with credit guarantee programmes.  

The author, Dr Agnes Kalibata is the President of Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA).