Museveni, Uganda’s succession need imaginative approaches

Whichever way one looks at it, Uganda’s most important problem today and for the foreseeable future, is the question of succession when the tenure of President Museveni ends. 

The issue at stake here is not so much about Mr Museveni but the country, Uganda. Obviously,  Mr Museveni is the most consequential actor who can make or break things. 

But the critical issue is the state and survival of Uganda as a nation, as home to more than 40 million Ugandans. 
The longer Mr Museveni has stayed in power, the more the country has become hostage. As and when he departs, President Museveni will want to do so on his own terms, his choosing and calculation.

For young Ugandans with limited knowledge of our political history, think about this. Mr Museveni has ruled Uganda for more years than the combined years of all the seven presidents or leaders before 1986. 

When he took over in 1986, his son, Muhoozi Kaneirugaba was only approaching 12 years. Today, he is a Lieutenant General, Commander of the Land Forces, and often mentioned as one of prospective successors to his  father.

There are two core components to the conundrum that is Uganda’s now stalled political transition, a transition that at any rate should have been decided more than a decade ago but which will have to be resolved one way or the other in the near future.  

The first is a personality puzzle. It is about Museveni’s political predisposition. Mr Museveni has a firmly held conviction that he is on a mission to free Uganda and to liberate Africa from backwardness and underdevelopment. 
Whether or not you believe him or take him seriously, he strongly holds this sense of mission and purpose. 

Even after three or even four decades of ruling, Mr Museveni finds it difficult contemplating hanging up his boots and leaving the political stage. He believes the mission isn’t done yet. 

The second, somewhat natural force at play is one that Mr Museveni cannot control or dictate. 
Consider this, when he came to power in 1986, Uganda’s population was about a third of what it is today – the population has since expanded three-fold. That wouldn’t be a problem if economic expansion and transformation had kept pace; if opportunities and openings had squared up with growing demands from especially young educated Ugandans. 

What is more, when he first came to power, the internet may have been in Uganda only as an English word! Today, it rules over people’s lives perhaps more than Mr Museveni does.

The youth bulge, the technological ruptures and the complex social structure are the sort of forces over which Mr Museveni can only watch on, perhaps helplessly. 

These are part of the course of history and nature that is utterly random. The laws of nature cannot be defied or manipulated, at least not forever. At some point, change must happen, whether messy or clean. 

All this then means that it’s in the best interest of all Ugandans to demand a workable and amicable solution to the succession nightmare. Mr Museveni would be a big beneficiary, but the real winner will be the country that we all hold dear and to which we are deeply attached. 

Recently, a Western diplomat in Kampala asked me if I thought there was anyone that Mr Museveni can listen to in discussion over an orderly succession. I was stampeded by this question. Truth is, there is no Mandela, no Mwalimu Nyerere, no Ben Mkapa, Kenneth Kaunda, Daniel arap Moi, Jerry Rawlings, etc. 

Inside Uganda, there is no Eriya Kategaya or James Wapakhabulo. Mr Museveni’s peers still living are either retired, out of favour or content picking state privileges. What is left then is for the people of Uganda to drive the agenda for a peaceful transition, to offer concessions in return for peace to prevail.

Hardliners and hawks will insist on accountability and retribution. But Uganda has been there before. We need a different approach and imagination. 

Forging a new and forward looking Uganda will require thoughtfulness and wisdom, healing and reconciliation, forgiveness and forbearance. The agency and urgency to make this possible will have to come from Ugandans.

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