The challenge of holding and losing state power

Ethiopia is in a destructive and deadly armed conflict, particularly in the northern regional state of Tigray, across regions like Amhara, Afar and further south in Oromia. For those of us with some attachment to Ethiopia; personal, professional or a sheer pan-African sentiment, the war is too painful to take. 
Following matters from afar, I cannot imagine the feeling of distraught and anguish by many Ethiopian colleagues and friends. The conflict is deeply painful for many reasons. 

For one, this is 2021 not 1991 when a long drawn out war against Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam, and his Derg military junta regime, climaxed in rebel takeover of Addis Ababa. 
It is an extraordinary sense of dejavu. The same organisation, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which overthrew Colonel Mengistu and ruled the country for almost three decades, is now in the trenches executing an insurgency against the very government it departed barely two years ago.
 
The people who held state power at the centre and ran affairs of the regional federal state of Tigray are now patently called terrorists. Literally, overnight, a ruling group took on the label of terrorists. 
What is more, another insurgent group fighting the government in Addis Ababa, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), now finds an ally in their erstwhile nemesis, the TPLF. Quite ironic that an Oromo liberation organisation is fighting an Oromo-led government. 
When the OLA and TPLF fell out in a transitional government partnership after defeating the Derg, the former retreated to fighting but were decisively defeated. 

The TPLF was able to establish full and total control, going on to rule the country until 2018 when current premier, Abiy Ahmed, serving in the same government as the TPLF, took the helm. There is no space for exhaustively recounting this history only to say that the current conflict is such a sore and an ugly state of affairs. I last visited Ethiopia in July 2018 on a routine research trip. Abiy was a few months old as premier. The mood was surreal. There was palpable expectation and optimism but also noticeable tensions. 

In private conversations with thoughtful interlocutors, I learnt that premier Abiy had an enormous challenge on his hands. He had popular approval behind him not least because of his being an Oromo, the largest but historically marginalised ethnic group, but the task at hand was huge.  A great part of the tension, one that ultimately brought matters to a head, was how the former dominant force in government, the TPLF (now pushed aside with an assertive prime minister from the biggest ethnic group), would handle their loss of power and influence. 
Better, how would Abiy handle accommodating the TPLF, the people previously in charge of key levers of State power, especially the military and intelligence apparatus, and critical sectors of the economy? 

A week before I arrived in Addis, there had been an attempted assassination on Abiy. But I never imagined at the time that the country would precipitously drift towards full scale war. As it turned out, the TPLF could not handle their loss of state power. On his part, Abiy was unable to act judiciously in managing the power before him and dealing with individuals who only yesterday were the most powerful group in government.

  The TPLF dared Abiy, and the latter wasted no time taking the fight to them. In November 2020, shots went off including alleged rocket fire across the border into the Eritrean capital, Asmara. The Eritreans did not just return fire, they physically crossed the border. A year later, it’s an appalling situation. 
War is terrible. It destroys. It kills, it maims, displaces and creates permanent scars. There are reports of mass atrocities, including genocide. We don’t yet know the full truth.

This conflict would pass for an embarrassing display by Ethiopian elites if not for its horrendous impact on the people of that beautiful country.  In the initial stages, the Ethiopian government was implored to talk peace. It obstinately and with sheer hubris declared it was pursuing a law enforcement operation against ‘terrorists.’ When the latter fought its way to recapture the regional capital, Mekelle, the government declared a unilateral ceasefire and expressed willingness to pursue peace. 

The TPLF feeling in a strong position totally disregarded the ceasefire overture and the call for dialogue. Recall, all this is happening in-front of the African Union, the very organisation meant to promote peace and prosperity across the continent.  Ethiopia occupies a special place in African history: The only country to have successful fought and defeated European colonial conquest. Why would Ethiopians be killing each other and destroying a country of more than 100 million people with enormous economic potential in 2021?

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