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Caption for the landscape image:

The road ahead for political order in Uganda

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Author: Moses Khisa. PHOTO/FILE

I want to conclude the series on political order with reflections on what lies ahead for Uganda. Quite obviously, it is difficult to predict the future accurately in a world of contingency and fluidity. In fact, social scientists have a poor record having a handle on future developments, and providing accurate forecasts of what to expect and when.

While the natural sciences have advanced tremendously in modelling and predicting the physical world, doing so with precision and accuracy, attempts to bring similar approaches to the social world, say by applying sophisticated mathematical models to socioeconomic and political phenomena to predict outcomes tend to fail.

Any perceptive analysis and insight into the future can only at best provide broad strokes of possible trends and general direction, not precise predictions of specific outcomes. I have to underscore this caveat to avoid giving a false impression that I, or indeed any analyst, can somehow state where Uganda is heading and what will happen down the line. It would not just be a false impression, it is sheer intellectual dishonesty, but perhaps the kind of business better left to seers or the prophecies of prophets of which we now have quite many in Uganda today, one would add, motivated by profit.

We know what we know today, not everything, to be sure. We can proceed from present knowledge to think about what lies ahead and make some informed but modest inferences. Except for individuals heavily invested in the status quo as direct beneficiaries of the spoils system, it is arguable that even the most optimistic and patriotic Uganda would concede that we are on shaky ground as a country.

The foundations of our politics are perilous. Core institutions to midwife political contestations, guide prudent decision-making and guard against idiosyncrasies of individuals are either dead or severely eroded. The pillars of our economy are fragile and the ethos of our society are wobbly.

To underwrite a stable and durable political order for the future will require a great deal of hard work and a gradual process of deliberate building, something highly unlikely with the current set of political and economic actors.

We have to remember that we remain stuck with the unresolved question of power transition and peaceful change of president/government, something that has eluded Uganda in all of the 62 years of independence. Short of real political rapture, completely ending the current ruling regime and upending the political system, the mere shift of state power to whatever faction within the ruling party and the military will count for very little, if anything, in the broader scheme of change and transformation.

Next year’s general elections are unlikely to add any value to the quest for genuine accountability or the struggle for a functional governmental apparatus capable of meeting the material needs of the country. In all likelihood, the elections will serve the same old purpose of providing avenues for a few elites to ascend to political positions from which they feather their nests having thrown some campaign crumbs of money and goodies to the voters.

Rather than another worthless yet costly round of general elections, the prudent thing would be to reimagine Uganda and chart a new path for the country by redesigning the pillars of political order. A nonstarter idea, of course, considering the across the board yearning and rush to capture a seat at the table through elections.
Uganda faces enormous socioeconomic problems that require a solid political system and a functional state apparatus.

Yet, with all the mass unemployment, especially of young Ugandans, the environmental pressures of rapid population growth, the sheer material deprivation of most citizens, the low literacy and life expectancy rates, and so much more, we have a broken political system and dysfunctional state to accompany this dire socioeconomic state of affairs.

On their part, the rulers are rhetorically convinced that Uganda is progressing under their superior leadership. It is a remarkable delusion. But it is not just the rulers and their lackeys. Some who preach the gospel of positivity or among the high priests who vend ‘how to get rich’ narratives, the motivational speakers and personal growth gurus, we have an army quick to point to Uganda’s many endowments, flashes of promising developments and all the potentials available for the taking.

Cherry picking works well here and simplistic suppositions sound compelling. For the big picture, however, and thinking about the fundamentals for both society and politics, there is little question that Uganda is pointedly in the direction where disorder might become inevitable, and to disastrous effect.

If there were ever any illusions, for example, about how treacherous the succession question will likely play out, the last two-three years of contending factions tussling out so openly speaks loudly to a potentially dangerous turn ahead.