Time to decide if we are now at half-time or injury time – Part I

Most people reading this would have been too young to remember the 2001 presidential elections, or come into their political consciousness at around that time. It was the first time Col Kizza Besigye contested the presidency of Uganda. If you care to read or ask the right people, the seeds of most of what you saw climaxing during the 2021 presidential elections were sown 20 years ago.

There is a litany of events to pick from – pre-and-post election – which have shaped our democracy since then, but let us go with Kyadondo East. The incumbent MP at the time, Sam Kalega Njuba, had been an NRM honcho, who had, with a few others, decamped to found the Reform Agenda. At the time, political parties were banned, so everybody was aboard the Movement bus. Basically there was no substantive Opposition. Realising that those opposed to the government would need leadership in Parliament, Njuba offered to resign his parliamentary seat, so that Besigye could contest as MP and lead the Opposition in Parliament. It is such a selfless act, if you think about it, and should tell a lot of you about the values of the man and about some of the lot that were in leadership at the time.

Besigye, who according to the Electoral Commission, had polled 2,250,795 votes, declined the offer – again, telling of the altruistic calibre of the man. But in Njuba’s offer and Besigye’s refusal of it, Uganda and its Parliament in particular, were denied five to10 years of definitive policy direction from one of the country’s leading politicians. Instead, he ended up exiled, frequently jailed and often street brawling with an increasingly brutal police force – as the calibre of MPs floated down the gutter, along with decency in politics. Why have we gone 20 years back today? Well, because it feels like yet again, we are on the precipice of something like it.

The Electoral Commission announced that President Museveni would be undertaking his 6th term as President. The National Unity Platform, which was announced as having polled the second most votes, is where Reform Agenda (FDC) was in 2001.

In wiping the floor with the NRM, especially in Central Uganda, and putting up a fight as Besigye has given over the last couple of bouts, they have distinguished themselves and must be commended for it. But what happens next is even more crucial, especially considering how the ruling party is reacting to the battering.  

You might be familiar with instances when someone accuses you of doing something that they are guilty of. For example, when a cheating spouse, either out of guilt or shame or fear of getting caught, starts accusing the partner of cheating instead. Psychology has a term for it – Projecting. And that is exactly what the ruling party is doing, by labelling NUP’s win in central Uganda as tribalist.

The young party would be advised to pay no heed to this rubbish analysis, and instead focus on how to build from this moment. Part of that process should, in my opinion, involve a revisit of that Njuba proposal from 20 years ago. The fabric of our politics has changed so much over the last 20 years and in two to three years, the new MPs will start thinking about reelection. This, just as they have recovered from the loans accrued to secure this win. The risk for NUP, but especially for Robert Kyagulanyi, is that at this point, they are likely to put their interests and political survival ahead of the party’s and his. So they might start making deals that involve isolating their party leader.

Without him in Parliament to increase his knowledge of the political and governance ropes, but also to exercise leadership and control over his members, you fear for what sorts of relevance he will have. So for the sake of consolidating their gains – and standing on the shoulders of the giant that is FDC – Kyagulanyi needs to go back to Parliament – as undisputed political leader of anti-Museveni forces. There is contention over which election in Uganda’s history has been the most difficult for its citizens. Only one or two have gone by with little incident, but none has ever led to peaceful change of government. Whenever that moment comes, what will NUP have done to be ready?
Mr Rukwengye is the founder, Boundless Minds. [email protected]