Trust issues, mutual suspicions among leaders make the EAC a paper tiger
Samuel Obedgiu
What you need to know:
- The M23 rebels have been reported utilising sophisticated short range air defence weapons against various aerial threats, including helicopters, drones, and potentially even fixed-wing aircraft.
Earlier this year, the Chinese embassy issued a stark warning to its citizens operating in the eastern regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), an area endowed with precious minerals such as gold, tin, tungsten, coltan, and tantalum.
The embassy emphasised the alarming decline in security, drawing attention to the significant dangers that loom over those engaged in mining operations amid escalating unrest and conflict. It is crucial to note that state-backed Chinese entities, alongside private investors, together exert control over an impressive 16 out of the 19 cobalt mines in the DRC, underscoring the nation’s pivotal role in the global supply chain of essential resources.
At the same time, as the M23 rebels launched aggressive military campaigns to seize the strategically important city of Nyabiondo, located 110 kilometres (68 miles) northwest of Goma, President Félix Tshisekedi of the DRC initiated a calculated charm offensive. He leveraged influential platforms, including right-wing media outlets like Fox News, to broaden his narrative.
His objective was to present a compelling case for the mineral deal he proposed to the United States, framing it as a beneficial partnership that would provide vital security assistance for his beleaguered nation. In a landscape rife with geopolitical tensions and the constant threat of resource exploitation, Tshisekedi’s efforts underscored the delicate balance between attracting foreign investment and ensuring the safety and well-being of his country’s citizens.
Amid these turbulent developments, reports surfaced indicating a significant breakdown in the power-sharing agreement between Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, culminating in the house arrest of Machar. This political upheaval has drawn the intervention of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) in South Sudan, with Uganda justifying its actions by citing economic motivations.
This summary highlights the intricate and shifting geopolitical landscape of the Great Lakes region. Curiously, Rwanda appears to operate with an unofficial endorsement from Western powers, allowing it to execute specific manoeuvres in the area with minimal repercussions, aside from mild diplomatic rebukes.
The M23 rebels have been reported utilising sophisticated short range air defence weapons against various aerial threats, including helicopters, drones, and potentially even fixed-wing aircraft. Additionally, mobile surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, notably of Chinese manufacture, have been documented in use.
The M23 has also engaged in GPS spoofing and jamming operations, effectively disrupting UN, humanitarian, and commercial flights. The sophistication of these weaponry and tactics underscores the presence of nation-state actors supporting the M23, not just Rwanda.
This phenomenon of state-backed insurgents has fuelled deep-seated suspicion among regional leaders. Not long ago, Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda signed the East African Common Defence Pact, yet Burundi and Tanzania were notable holdouts.
I spoke to an individual who served as an assistant to a high-ranking Tanzanian official, and he disclosed that provided certain leaders continue to hold the reign of power in certain East African countries, signing such agreements will never be undertaken by Tanzania.
The apprehension arises from the idea that such defence alliances would necessitate sharing critical signals intelligence (SIGINT), human resources, and methods information deemed too sensitive to disclose to certain leaders they don’t trust that act as proxies for certain commercial and geopolitical interests of foreign states. This is a primary reason many vital aspects of the East African Community will likely remain unrealised in our lifetime.
The unintended consequences of erratic geopolitical manoeuvre exhibited by President Donald Trump are set to further complicate the security landscape in the Great Lakes region. Middle powers like Turkey and the UAE, which once acted with Washington's tacit approval to a large extent, may abruptly gain the agency to pursue their interests, thereby exacerbating local tensions and instability.
This phenomenon of state-backed insurgents has fuelled deep-seated suspicion among regional leaders.
Samuel Obedgiu is geopolitician and biotechnologist. [email protected]
