Jonas Mbabazi Musinga
The recent one-two punch of steep U.S. tariffs and sweeping aid cuts has delivered what can only be described as a double shock therapy to Africa. For decades, African economies have leaned heavily on preferential trade access and donor support, especially from the United States.
The current U.S. administration’s imposition of tariffs ranging from 30 percent to 50 percent on imports from several African nations marks a sharp departure from the preferential trade benefits once enjoyed under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
These tariffs are already triggering serious consequences across the continent. Alongside trade disruptions, drastic U.S. aid reductions are compounding the blow. The rollback includes deep cuts to the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and other critical health and development programs.
In fiscal year 2023 alone, U.S. assistance invested $10.6 billion in HIV/Aids programs and $1.5 billion in responses to diseases like Ebola, malaria, and tuberculosis—mostly in Africa. The dissolution of USAID programs will severely weaken infectious disease surveillance and public health systems—increasing the vulnerability of the tail-end target beneficiaries.
Countries like Ethiopia, DRC, Kenya, and Tanzania each face aid reductions exceeding $200 million, affecting health, education, and infrastructure sectors. Liberia, with the largest cut relative to its economy (1.6 percent of GNI), faces serious risks to economic stability.
Climate-specific funding is likely to shrink, weakening the capacity of African nations to invest in renewable energy, climate-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and ecosystem restoration.
The redirection of attention toward domestic priorities in the U.S. will reduce its engagement in international climate diplomacy and financial pledges, weakening global momentum. This will further delay Africa’s access to climate finance under frameworks like the Paris Agreement. Overall, these cuts are expected to push an additional 5.7 million Africans into extreme poverty within a year, reversing development gains and heightening vulnerability across the continent.
African countries must urgently rethink their economic strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of recent U.S. policy changes. One key step is to invest in value addition—moving away from exporting raw materials to producing finished goods.
Developing strong manufacturing and agro-processing industries will not only boost competitiveness in global markets but also create much-needed jobs across the continent. By climbing up the value chain, African economies will unlock greater income, reduce vulnerability to commodity price swings, and build long-term resilience. In addition, enhancing intra-African trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is critical. AfCFTA presents an unprecedented opportunity to build a more integrated, self-reliant African market. By reducing trade barriers and improving cross-border infrastructure, countries can expand market access, foster industrial growth, and cushion against external shocks.
At the same time, diversifying trade partnerships—such as tapping into China's tariff-free offers to 33 African countries—will help reduce overdependence on the U.S. and create alternative paths for growth. Finally, strengthening domestic policies is essential.
African governments must focus on economic diversification, improving the business climate, and investing in human capital. This includes promoting innovation, supporting small and medium enterprises, and bolstering critical sectors like education and healthcare. While the U.S. tariffs and aid cuts pose real threats, they also provide a moment of reckoning.
With the right mix of reforms, partnerships, and regional cooperation, Africa can turn this "double shock" into a launchpad for a stronger, more independent future.
The writer, Jonas Mbabazi Musinga, is a research fellow at ACODE./ [email protected]
