Musaazi Namiti
Uganda and Syria are different in many ways, but there are striking parallels between how the two countries have been ruled.
Just as Syrians suffered under Bashar al-Assad, 59, who was ousted by rebels on December 8, Ugandans continue to face repression under the NRM government.
Government opponents have been jailed on trumped-up charges and are sometimes forced to plead guilty for freedom.
Many Ugandans are angry at how public funds are misappropriated and would be more than willing to protest against corruption — but they fear they will be killed, as happened in November 2020.
Indeed, this past July, President Museveni appeared on TV and warned young Ugandans who were planning to march on Parliament that they were "playing with fire”.
It is the same fire that Syrians have had to deal with, and while their ousted president ruled the country for 24 years, Mr Museveni’s NRM has been at the helm of power for nearly 40 years.
It is hard for a government that has been in power that long to remain popular. In fact, sometimes we see celebrations on social media after the death announcements of some people who brought the NRM government to power.What is stoking public anger is that there is no sign that Mr Museveni is willing to step down. His son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has made it very clear in public appearances that he wants to be the next president.
There is, some say, a Museveni dynasty in the making, just as there has been the Assad dynasty in Syria.Ugandans below the age of 40 have only seen one leader, and the country has never seen a peaceful transfer of power since Independence in 1962.
To be fair, Mr Museveni renews his mandate at elections held every five years. But the elections, organised by a commission whose officials he appoints, are all disputed.It is worth noting that winning elections does not necessarily mean a leader is popular. For example, Gabon’s Ali Ben Bongo, who was ousted in September 2023, had just won re-election in August, with 64.27 percent of the vote.
In the 2016 election, where turnout in his home province was 99.93 percent, Mr Bongo won 95 percent, according to The Economist.
Like Gabon, Uganda's ruling party has relied on questionable elections. However, given the party’s excesses and waning popularity, there is little doubt that Ugandans would celebrate its replacement.
The Syria experience is a good lesson for the NRM government. Clinging to power often ends ignominiously, as it did for Mr Assad.
Mr Assad — who assumed power after the death of his father Hafez, who had ruled for 30 years — was forced into exile. The new place he calls home, Russia, is far from the real home, the Arab world.
For 13 years, relying on Russia’s military support, his government had fended off the rebels, but they eventually managed to put an end to his brutal rule.
Clinging to power came at a huge cost for Mr Assad, as he lost loved ones and had made only one foreign trip since the war started in 2011 — a visit to Saudi Arabia in 2023 to attend the Arab League, a bloc of 22 nations from which Syria had been suspended over a brutal crackdown on protesters demanding his resignation.
As news of his ouster was beamed around the world, Syrians erupted in celebrations, marking the end of decades of repression. In Uganda, where opponents of the NRM have long awaited a similar moment, the hope for change remains, even as the wait grows longer.
The writer, Musaazi Namiti, is a journalist and former Al Jazeera digital editor in charge of the Africa desk
