Tobacco tax hike falls short of health and revenue goals

On March 27, the government proposed an amendment to increase the excise duty on locally manufactured soft cap cigarettes by Shs10,000—from Shs55,000 to Shs65,000 per 1,000 sticks. At the same time, taxes on imported cigarette brands were to be doubled. On the surface, this may look like progress. But dig deeper, and it becomes clear this proposal is a missed opportunity for meaningful public health impact and revenue growth.

Let’s begin with the market reality: the most widely consumed brands in Uganda—are all considered in the category “locally manufactured” (It does not matter if they are crossing boarders as long as they are produced by a country with in the East African Community). These dominate the shelves and the smokers’ choices. On the other hand, the so-called “imported” brands are virtually absent from the market.

Few Ugandans even know they exist, let alone consume them regularly. By doubling taxes only on imported brands, which make up a tiny fraction of the market, and increasing local brand taxes by just Shs10,000, the proposal undermines its stated goals of raising revenue and reducing tobacco use. It creates a bigger price gap between imported and local cigarettes, making the cheaper, locally produced options even more attractive.

This not only weakens the incentive to quit or reduce smoking but could actually lead to increased consumption through substitution. If someone can't afford the more expensive option, they’ll simply buy the cheaper one. Worse still, the burden of tobacco use falls heaviest on Uganda’s most vulnerable—youth, low-income earners, and those with limited access to healthcare.

These are the same people more likely to purchase cheaper cigarettes and who often lack the means to access proper treatment when tobacco-related illnesses strike. As a result, families fall deeper into poverty, with children becoming bedside caregivers and missing school. This is not just a public health crisis — it’s an economic one.

According to the Centre for Tobacco Control in Africa, for every one dollar Uganda collects in tobacco revenue, it spends four dollars on treating tobacco-related illnesses. That’s a net loss we can no longer afford. If we want to truly protect Ugandans and grow our domestic revenue, we need to take a stronger, more consistent stance.

I propose a uniform doubling of excise duty on all cigarettes—imported and locally manufactured alike. There is no evidence that imported cigarettes are more harmful than local ones. All tobacco products pose equal risks and should be taxed accordingly. We must close the loopholes that allow the tobacco industry to profit at the expense of Ugandan lives and livelihoods. Let’s seize this opportunity to put public health first, reduce the economic burden of tobacco use, and build a healthier future for all.

Brenda Nandutu,  Program Officer, Uganda Cancer Society