Gen Muhoozi; from a problematic project to a possible presidency

Ever since 1999 when the first son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba joined the army, the issue was talked about in hush-hush voices. As usual it was garnished with the famous Uganda flavours of rumours, embellishments, sycophants’ spin, conjecture, half-truths and outright lies. 

That President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni was planning to keep things in the family by grooming his son to succeed him as president of Uganda.
A pundit in the media with a straight face claimed that those talking about this issue were impatient night dancers. Otherwise why talk about succeeding a physically fit man, who is still alive and kicking? Why demean Museveni and make him look like the dictators of old; the Mobutu Sese Sekos and Muammar Gadaffi’s who were breaking every rule to have their sons Kongolo Mobutu and Saif al Islam respectively, replace them?

The people leveraging on the speedy promotions in the army, the privilege of attending various courses at prestigious military schools like Sandhurst and Fort Leavenworth in the UK and the US plus others, kept tongues wagging. Those who said Uganda was not a dynasty for a son to ‘automatically,’ succeed his father as president, were asked to cite any article in the 1995 Constitution that a Muhoozi bid for presidency would offend before being asked to concentrate on productive work and wealth creation.

Matters got problematic when the Daily Monitor  ran a story headlined, “Probe assassination claims, says Tinyefuza” (May 7, 2013) based on a letter written by the then Coordinator of Intelligence Services, Gen David Tinyefuza, now Sejusa, which means ‘I have no regrets,’ in Luganda. 

READ: Sejusa letter: How we were closed, reopened

Gen Sejusa claimed that there was a plot to ‘neutralize’ members or competitors within the security forces and elsewhere to create a smooth passage for Muhooz’s bid for president. The Monitor offices in Namuwongo were declared a crime scene by security officers who searched for a copy of the Sejusa letter and closed down the premises with all its operations for 11 days. Same thing happened to The Red Pepper publications. Sejusa stayed in exile in the UK. 

What by now was called the ‘Muhoozi project’ had turned into a hot potato. The next 10 years after this incident, a lot of water has passed under the bridge and time has healed many things and opened others. The Daily Monitor was reopened and almost all those journalists who worked on that story are no longer at Monitor. Sejusa returned from exile and retired from the army after schmoozing with the opposition. Gen Kale Kayihura is no longer the Inspector General of Police. He left in ignominy via the dock and the prison gate.

Muhoozi has since been promoted from a Brigadier to a full General. He is now the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF.) Having been in the army for almost a quarter a decade, Gen Muhoozi, now on the eve of his 50th birthday, is one of the senior serving army officers. 
Over the years he has increased his presence in the public eye especially with his comments on social media platform X where he has made many controversial statements especially regarding local and foreign politics. Ordinarily this would earn him a reprimand for going against parts of the UPDF act like has happened to other officers. He has instead earned himself promotions. He quit the army and returned to head it.
Many of the things that have happened in the last two years show that we have moved from a project to a possible presidential bid. Whether it comes to pass is another matter altogether. Not surprisingly, a lot of it comes from the art of war.

READ: How Museveni, Muhoozi are classic chalk, cheese 

What looked like playful public birthday celebrations was the equivalent of reconnaissance. It introduced him to crowds, especially the hoi polloi in different parts of the country, under the MK movement, to overcome stage fright. 

As he moved around he attracted politicians from the ruling party and even many who identify with the opposition NUP. Those were lessons in mobilizing from the establishment. A good general does not waste resources by re-inventing the wheel when he has people ready to cross over to his side. He minimises his cost in financial terms and manpower by poaching from the enemy territory. This strengthens him while weakening his adversary. It also proves to him how fickle and fluid people can be in politics especially where money is anticipated or involved. It softens the ground.  It works just like force. That is why Muhoozi and company embarked on poaching from the opposition, leaving them in disagreement with accusations flying around regarding ‘moles.’ 
In politics enemy territory is important for cadre identification and placement. 
Then there was the case of Maj Gen. Kahinda Otafiire who is an old friend of Museveni for over half a century. He has been the loud sole voice against an automatic succession of Muhoozi. Those who watch the politics of Uganda closely, have taken Otafiire with a pinch of salt. In some circles he is looked at as the stone that is thrown in the bush just to check what comes out in order to avoid an ambush.
One of the challenges the Muhoozi project had from the start is how the old guard would perceive. That constituency has many people who fought alongside Museveni and would also have wanted to have a go at the presidency. Catapulting Muhoozi would be a slap in their face. Otafiire’s campaign would help in exposing such people. None has come out publicly so far. In the military the one who plays that role is called an agent provocateur.
Instead many politicians like the speaker of Parliament Anita Among and her deputy Thomas Tayebwa are associating with Muhoozi. It is a comment about his appeal to the post Museveni generation politicians.  The recent mutation of the MK movement into the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) has shown us as much.

There has been some reading that by returning Muhoozi to the army as CDF his wings have been trimmed. That his vehicle, the PLU, has been crashed. That he will now be under command of his father as Commander in Chief which will keep him away from politics.
What many do not realise is that Muhoozi has now completed his initial ‘orientation’ and introduction to the people. The best place for Muhoozi to mobilise effectively and even go for it is under the wing of Museveni and the existing NRM structures.

The latter can use the time left to clear the way for Muhoozi both in the army and in the public service. These may be populated with the ‘right’ people.
The recent cabinet reshuffle and moves in the army tell us that there are many possibilities for what was once a difficult project to sell.

   
Twitter: @nsengoba