Rising population a great threat to food security

Food security in Uganda is likely to worsen in the next 40 years as the population increases amidst the country’s finite resources.

The country’s current population that presently stands at 33 million people is exploding at a high rate and it is projected to reach 130million by 2050.

Globally, however, the world population is expected to hit 7 billion people early in 2012, up from the current 6.8 billion, and surpass 9 billion people by 2050.

This means that food production will have to increase by between 70 and 100 per cent, while land for agriculture will remain static, or even decrease as a result of land degradation and climate change.

With the current trend, government-appointed advisers are now expected to warn that “business as usual” in terms of food production is not an option if mass famine is to be avoided, and to refer to the need for a second “green revolution”, following the one that helped to feed the extra 3 billion people who have been added to the global population over the past 50 years.

Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) - Uganda has also warned that the number of hungry people is likely to increase to an infinite figure, up from the current 9 million people countrywide.

“If government does not invest heavily in agriculture, research and advisory services to increase food production, then we are likely to have a figure of hungry people that I am unable to predict,” says Ms Rachel Nandelenga, the spokesperson of FAO Uganda said.

She says government should cater for emergencies but also look for long term solutions on how to combat hunger.

In the recent hard-hitting report, commissioned by the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills, UK, scientists have warned that the era of cheap food is over, and governments around the world must prepare to follow the leads of China and Brazil by investing heavily in research and the development of new agricultural techniques and practices.

The authors of the Foresight report, Global Food and Farming Futures, argue that to boost crop yields to the level needed to provide enough food for all by 2050, every scientific tool must be considered, including the controversial use of Genetically Modified (GM) crops – which have been largely rejected by consumers worldwide.

The scientists are expected to recommend that GM technology should be shifted away from the private sector to one that is mostly funded and deployed by publicly funded bodies, in order to avoid what is seen as the stranglehold of large agribusiness companies such as Monsanto.

Uganda’s Information Minister, Ms Kabakumba Matsiko told Business Power that government is investing much in research to determine whether GM food can be consumed.

“Government is committed to carry out research about these GMs to find out whether they have effects on humans and that we should eat it or not,” Ms Matsiko said.

“We are also trying to ensure that farmers resort to using improved technology in form of improved seeds and use of fertilisers for higher yields.”

She said the government is committed to ensure that food is available by mid century as processes are going on for the construction of dams to cater for the worsening global warming.

In his message to mark the World Food Day last year, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said although the number of hungry people has fallen from 2009’s one billion, there are still 925 million hungry people in the world, representing a real threat to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of ending abject poverty by 2015.

“We are continually reminded that the world’s food systems are not working in ways that ensure food security for the most vulnerable members of our societies,” Mr Ki-moon said at the time.

The continued inadequacy of food in the world led to an emergency of a campaign dubbed “1 billion hungry project” spearheaded by FAO, targeting at least one million signatures on a petition urging national and international leaders to move hunger to the top of political agenda during the celebrations.

According to ActionAid, an international anti-poverty agency working in over 40 countries, global warming and biofuels expansion is likely to worsen the situation of hunger in developing countries, in addition to harsher, frequent droughts and shorter growing seasons that will reduce crop yields.

“Although some regions may benefit from warmer weather, crop yields are likely to fall by up to 50 per cent in some African countries,” the ActionAid, Hunger Free Scored report for 2010 says.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that climate change could put 50 million extra people at risk of hunger by 2020, rising to an additional 266 million people by 2080.

Globally, hunger is the underlying cause of roughly half of 8.8 million deaths that take place every year but beyond this, it is responsible for a total loss of 91 million years of healthy, productive life.

The State Minister for Agriculture, Mr Henry Bagiire, earlier said hunger has become a global issue that has been accelerated by global warming, increase in population and biofuels.

“The other problem is pests and diseases that have come up because of global warming,” says Mr Bagiire. “There’s long dry spell, terrestrial rains but also reclaiming more land for agriculture.”

Experts say the population growth rate that currently stands at 3.2 per cent and is predicted to be the third highest in the world, increasing the number of Ugandans lacking food.

Scientists believe the only way this can be done is by bridging the “yield gap” between what a plot of land should be able to produce, with the best techniques and practices, and the actual amount of food produced.

But while others are calling for changes in food production, others are calling on more funding for family planning to control the number of humans, particularly in the developing nations.

Mr John Bongaarts, the vice-president of the UN Population Council, said: “If we make much larger investments in family planning right now, the number of people could be closer to 8 billion. Such an investment would have a very beneficial impact on human welfare and any environmental issue we care about.”