Jinja East loss: Minor setback or loss of confidence in NRM?

Last week, the ruling NRM party lost in the Jinja East by-election after strongly campaigning for their candidate Nathan Igeme Nabeta. NRM secretary general Justine Kasule Lumumba was certain of a clear win in a manner in which the party has in the recent past been accustomed to winning by-elections.
The unforeseen turn of events in Jinja must have been a complete surprise to the NRM. The loss could only make sense if election malpractices had occurred. In the NRM camp, the only viable explanation was that there must have been election fraud; pre-ticketing, intimidation and voter bribery, that lead to the disappointing outcome.

It is remarkable to think that the NRM with a history of multiple election victories with the State machinery at its disposal lost. Nothing less than a landslide victory was expected in Jinja East. Instead, the party now finds itself on the defensive, in protest, preparing to lodge a formal complaint in the courts of law.
Organising for court action has left many people wondering if NRM possibly winning the court case would resolve the real critical issues at hand. Some people say the Jinja East by-election could have been a big surprise to the NRM since they are increasingly detached from people’s daily struggles. There seems to be a growing loss of confidence in the regime in a country where 75 per cent of the youth are unemployed, waking up every morning with no hope of gainful employment.

The element of surprise and level of complacency by the ruling party during the Jinja East by-election in some ways is a reminder of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s misjudgement of the American public mindset. The unforeseen public’s loss of confidence in Hillary during the 2016 presidential campaign resulted in a Donald Trump surprise win. According to political expert Alan Abramowitz, Trump was able to capitalise on the public’s visible anger and frustration, especially people who were jobless and felt ignored by the Democrats.

It seems the NRM has tried, but in vain, to address the youth unemployment issue through different policies such as the Youth Livelihood Programme and Poverty Alleviation Programme. Interestingly, none of the schemes seems to have been effective on the ground.
In 2017, under the National Action Plan on Youth Employment (NAPYE), Cabinet planned for Shs890b for alleviating youth unemployment. It is unclear if the funds were released and operational.
In the face of intensifying poverty, voters’ anxiety levels may have escalated rapidly, especially for the unemployed youth who wake up every morning unable to earn a living. The public’s low mood and dented confidence in the government’s ability to deliver youth employment seems to have played a key role in the Jinja East by-election.

Some people say the recent, seemingly forceful, Constitution amendment of Article 102(b) by the NRM Party also hit a raw nerve with the public and could have largely contributed to the NRM losing in Jinja East.
Whatever the case may be, the NRM’s long journey that started more than 31 years ago to win people’s hearts and minds seemed easier then, when prospects were low. Changing expectations are more complicated to manage. To ensure that Jinja East was just a minor NRM setback, a revamping strategy might be needed to claw back slipping loyalty.