Sad that when Kenyans vote, Ugandans fill their fuel tanks

Just about every motorist in Uganda is filling up the tank and possibly keeping some more fuel in a jerry can on the side. It is down to Kenya, the main conduit of petroleum products and a lot else to landlocked Uganda, going to the polls in a general election on Tuesday.
Anecdotally, Ugandans are scared of the Kenya election this time more than in 2013. There is a sense that things across the border could blow up like happened in 2007, leaving the Ugandan economy in shock and motorists with empty tanks. For safety, truckers say they will stop crossing into Kenya this weekend. As we say, this is insane. Everything could pass off peacefully, of course. But, until then, we remain on bunkenke.
Some day, maybe, electoral campaigns in Uganda and Kenya will cease to be contests so primal they bring normal life to a stop. Millions of us do not have to hold our breath because some mostly mendacious politicians are duking it out to get a chance to “eat”.
I am not advocating, obviously, the Rwanda electoral approach. That is a charade in its own league as the Friday vote and the lead-up to it amply demonstrated.
It would be encouraging to see in East Africa more of what is happening in West Africa — in places like Ghana and Senegal — where contests are tough, the process properly managed that it yields a result that losers, winners and the rest of society embrace. And while at it, life goes on, the economy chugs along. Until the next cycle.
My little theory about the deadly contests, especially presidential, in Uganda and Kenya is the politics of unbridled grievance. People don’t run to offer superior ideas necessarily, but rather to prove a point, to avenge something.
In Uganda, it is anger against President Museveni staying around longer than he had promised. His challengers are angry that their man — yes, once their man — played them, took them for fools. Yet he shows no signs of vacating State House soon.
In Kenya, the anger is palpable because non-Kikuyu and non-Kalenjin have been “locked out” of the top position since independence. The sense that Mr Raila Odinga (a Luo) was cheated by president Mwai Kibaki (a Kikuyu) in December 2007 was the spark that led to deadly post-election violence. If in the hours after Tuesday the Luo (and all the other ethnic groups lined up behind Mr Odinga) feel that their man has been denied keys to State House by yet another Kikuyu — incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta — the violence could be worse than a decade ago.
Besides, was it not president Kenyatta’s daddy, Mzee Jomo, who somehow kept Mr Odinga’s daddy, Mzee Jaramogi, at distance, away from real power? This historical element could make things trickier.
As a broader point, even if anger and a sense of betrayal are the passions that drive particular presidential candidates, they need to do a better job ensuring a majority of the people feel as they do. So a candidate would need to channel that shared public anger but not in and of itself. The anger needs to be seasoned with a compelling and well-articulated message that can appeal to many across different ethnic and economic backgrounds. A careful mix of ethnic cultivation (to keep the base) and a forward-looking message (to expand support) can bring a lot of mileage.
Nothing, however, beats a great organisational structure. Excellent organisation to get supporters to turn out to vote and to protect the vote, for example, can beat any rigging machinery. Rigging is only successful to the extent that the opponents are disorganised.
Whenever the people have firmly said enough is enough, they have brought down entrenched systems. When the octogenarian Abdoulaye Wade twisted the courts in 2012 to allow him run for a third term amid popular resistance, the Senegalese waited for him at the polls and handed him a well-deserved defeat. Two years later, the Burkinabe chased their president, Blaise Compaoré, for trying to change the constitution to run again after 27 years in power serving his own interests.
But first, the people need a decent leader to rally around: one who is angry but does not allow anger to consume him or her.

Mr Tabaire is the co-founder and director of programmes at African Centre for Media Excellence in Kampala. [email protected]
Twitter:@btabaire