Why heat and cold waves displaced El-Nino rain

A statement on weather alertness issued in the last quarter of 2015 by the Department of Relief, Disaster Preparedness and Management sent the country into panic.
The agency under the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM), warned of heavy rain commonly referred to as El-Nino that were predicted to ravage the country for five months starting in October.

Then, Martin Owor, the commissioner for Relief, Disaster Preparedness and Management, said the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) Regional Climate Application and Prediction Centre (ICPAC) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), had all predicted with a 95 per cent certainty the onset and duration of the said rain.

Preparing for the worst
As the saying goes, forewarned, is forearmed, Grace Kulayigye, a resident of Kinawatta-Katoogo, in Wakiso District, a flood-prone area did take precaution.
“This place is dangerous whenever it rains. Even the upper area where I live floods whenever it rains,” Kulayigye said.
The office of the Prime Minister, sent precautionary advisories to people living in low- lying areas to vacate immediately and for municipalities to open drainage systems.

Kulayigye and other residents voluntarily chose the latter and opened up Katoogo channel that pours water into Lake Victoria.
“Our LC chairperson organised us for a cleaning exercise and we removed all the polythene bags from the Katoogo to allow water flow fast. We are happy because our area will not flood anymore and the heavy rains that would cut off our area for two –three hours will be no more,” Kulayigye says.
In November, heavy rain ravaged the country destroying bridges, roads and farms, among others.

Wave of heat and cold sweeps in
But how fast weather can change. From the panic of being washed away by floods, Kulayigye and his neighbours started to complain of intense heat waves sweeping over his home forcing him to sleep without covering himself at night.
From the start of January to date, most parts of the country have experienced a switch from heavy rains to heat waves and lately isolated rains with cloudy conditions and cold temperatures in many districts.
Temperature data obtained from UNMA indicates that both day and night temperatures increased across the country starting late December into early January.
Kampala, Wakiso and surrounding areas, experienced an intense heat wave which drove daytime temperatures to highs of 31.1°C since 23 December of last year.

Normally, according to Godfrey Mujuni, the UNMA manager directorate of applied meteorological data and climate services, the average mean daytime temperatures for Kampala is 28 °C and 17.3°C at night but the former had also risen to 20°C.
“Climatologically, January and February are dry months but Kampala has many buildings that absorb heat and shed it off during night. That is why, Karamoja can be hot during day but cold at night,” Mujuni, explained in an interview.
But it is not only Kampala that saw temperatures increase intensely.

For example, in Gulu District, which has a maximum temperature of 30.2°C, temperatures rose to 31.1°C. Arua District with maximum of 29.1°C to 29.9°C.
In eastern Uganda, Jinja District which is near Lake Victoria, its temperatures rose by 0.3°C from 28°C to 28.3°C. Soroti in December recorded 31.3°C up from the maximum of 29.5°C. The situation was similar in Tororo District where the 29°C maximum temperature of the District had risen by 0.9.
Masindi District’s maximum temperature of 28°C has risen by 0.9°C.

Mbarara District recorded 26°C a drop from 26.8°C, the district’s maximum temperature.
Kabale District also recorded colder temperature of 23.6°C against the maximum of 24.4°C.
Last year, several people died in India and Pakistan as a result of strong heat waves but Mujuni advises that it should be everyone’s responsibility to avert such scenarios blamed on climate change.
“If we had a forest around Kampala, it would absorb this heat,” Mujuni said.

What changed?
But how could the country experience such sharp weather fluctuations when UNMA predicted that the rains would end in February this year?
The Head of Seasons Forecast at the Meteorological Department, Deus Bamanya, says their 95 per cent prediction of El-Nino going through February is accurate and the heat wave was temporary.
“El-Nino is still on and we expect isolated rains especially in western (region),” Bamanya, said.

According to Bamanya, the current temperature rise is influenced by global factors since no weather pattern is independent of global occurrences.
He says El-Niño triggers a sequence of weather events around the world, both negative and positive. On the African continent, Bamanya says El-Nino triggers occurrences of drier conditions in parts of southern Africa and and wet conditions in equatorial and east Africa
Since last year, South Africa and the Horn of Africa are experiencing intense drought conditions that have resulted in death of animals and destruction of crops, according to media reports.
Mujuni , also adds that temperatures are due to a number of factors including global warming as a result of emission of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

“El-Nino causes convergence processes in the atmosphere. When greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for a long time, it will reflect wave radiations and end up coming back on earth to warm it”
“The northern hemisphere water systems are coming with dry and warm conditions [Uganda] as weather has no boundaries. That is why we are experiencing high temperatures but it is temporary. We are going to experience isolated rains especially in the south-western region,” Mujuni says.

The predictions
Owor said their predictions were right since “we are in January a few weeks to February, when the rains were predicted to end.
“Our predictions were 95 per cent accurate and errors are inconsequential since we are in January,” Owor, said.
“The volume of rainfall that fell between October and December (last year) was the highest in 45 years and its subsiding in January is really not an issue,” he added.

“You saw what happened to the rivers, Kafu burst its banks and you could not go to Hoima (District); you saw what happened in Kampala (floods in different areas),” he added.
State minister for Disaster Prepared and Refugees Musa Ecweru said because of El-Nino, Teso, parts of northern Uganda, and Karamoja are on the brink of severe famine.
“The heavy rains caused water logging and the crops that these local communities depend on like cassava and potatoes all rot away and the communities are in trouble if we do not come to their rescue,” he said.

He added, “We are currently discussing with my colleagues (government) to see how these districts will be helped and we will need Shs4bn,” Ecweru discloseed.
Mujuni says before the start of El-Nino, they appealed to people to store water by digging up dams and ponds, keep grass for their animals and if they did, there should be no worry since isolated rains are expected to be on until February.

He warns people, especially pastoralists not to burn available grass since this not only destroys grass, other small animals that live in the bushes but also affects soil fertility by killing living organisms in the soil.
OPM plans
During the preparations ahead of the El-Nino rains, a multi-sectoral committee was set up to respond to emergencies.

The committee proposed to procure and stock “essential emergency survival relief commodities for shelter and household-use’’.
These included 4,000 pieces of family tents, 10,000 blankets and each family was set to get two. 10,000 tarpaulins, 10,000 pieces of mosquito net, 10,000 Jerry cans, 10,000 Saucepans, 30,000 plastic plates and cups, 700 tonnes of maize and 405 tonnes of beans, among others.
But Ecweru said most of the planned items were not procured in due time as they did not get finances from the Finance ministry and the few that were procured were done by non-government organisations.

Past El-Nino
In 2010, the country experienced an El-Niño episode that killed over 150 people in a massive landslide that swept through Nametsi Village in Bulucheke Sub-county, Bududa District. It also displaced an estimated 8,000 people.
A similar occurrence happened in 2011, and landslides killed 31 people in Sisiyi Village, Bulambuli District and displaced more than 1,500 people.

In June 2012, landslides killed two people in Bumasifa Village of Sironko District displacing over 800 people. In Bududa District that same year, landslides killed eight people, displacing over 3,500 while in Teso and Lango sub regions , 2006 floods displaced over 10,000 people.

Effects of 2015 El-Nino
Bamanya says there are widespread effects of the rains, key among them is the outbreak of cholera in Busia, Kibaale and Kampala districts due to poor sanitation systems.
Also, there was lightning in western Uganda, floods in Teso, Kampala and other areas.
On a positive note, he says El-Nino rains increased volume in all water bodies, grass for pastoralists’ animals and a good harvest is expected in some regions.

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