2020: Rwanda’s Chogm, Uganda’s election shower
This is my simple take on the politics of East Africa Community in 2010. I wrote this on Wednesday January 1, 2020.
Burundi
Burundi will hold presidential elections in May. By declaring that he would not seek re-election, president Pierre Nkurunziza has dispossessed the election of the expected excitement.
The way I see things, them Burundians may embarrass us by smoothly managing a peaceful transfer of power. In his End of Year Address to the Nation, president Nkurunziza told Burundians that the next End of Year Address to the Nation would be made by another person. If Ugandans had listened to President Nukurunziza’s speech, they would have said: Wawu…!
On January 26, CNDD/FDD (the ruling party in Burundi) will elect its presidential candidate for the May poll. The three possible contenders are Mr Pascal Nyabenda, Maj Gen Evereste Ndayishimiye and Lt Gen Allain Julien Bunyonyi. Pascal Nyabenda is the speaker of the National Assembly, a position that hoists him higher in protocol than the other two contenders. He studied at Nairobi University and one would pass him off as a real East African (with serious contacts in Kenya).
Maj Gen Everste Ndashimiye served as Minister for Police and Principal Private Secretary to the Presidency. A lawyer by training and former bush war fighter, Maj Gen Ndayishimiye is now the Secretary General of the CNDD/FDD. Lt Gen Allain Julien Bunyonyi is the Minister for Security.
The end of insecurity in Bujumbura City is attributed to his man of action attitude.
The odds for the party flag bearer are on Maj Gen Ndayishimiye who is viewed as educated, soldierly and close to the incumbent president. However, in spite of the odds favouring Maj Gen Ndayishimiye, the other two offer solid candidatures.
Yet Mr Agaton Rwasa, the deputy president of the National Assembly, would offer a formidable challenge to any candidate from the ruling party. He leads the opposition party with the biggest numerical strength in the Burundian parliament.
Rwanda
Rwanda will host the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM 2020). As a country with no British colonial heritage, hosting CHOGM is some kind of diplomatic triumph for Rwanda. For Paul Kagame, this meeting offers another opportunity to showcase ‘Rwanda’s development’. But Mr Kagame will have to do some diplomatic manoeuvres to smooth up things in the region. The absence of two East African presidents would be a diplomatic slap in Rwanda’s face.
Hosting such big meetings comes with costs; and oh yes, in social and economic terms. There were rumours that some slum areas in Kigali City were razed to create the Kigali ‘we always pride in’. Yes, the Kigali we would like to offer for CHOGM.
Uganda
For Uganda, 2020 is election shower (kasiki) for the 2021 polls. The manoeuvres started last year and the inside story is exciting. I would like to remind Ugandans that ‘the famous prophecy’ is still standing. So, with that prophecy, the kasiki (2020) will be more exciting than the real thing. You get…?
Kenya
This year, Kenya will be preoccupied by Building Bridges Initiatives. The challenge will be about absorbing President Uhuru’s personal ideas and freezing them in pages of the constitution.
Tanzania
Tanzania will hold a general election in this year. Initially, there was fear of a violent election. But recent traffic on the international intelligence circuit point to a drop in militancy in the opposition.
Election violence is always a response to the opposition’s vigilance and militancy. And so, everything will depend on what the opposition Chadema youth will do. And on that note, I take this opportunity to welcome the year twenty twenty.
Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of East African Flagpost.
