‘Mugisha Muntu may succeed Museveni’
It is not what you are thinking that I am thinking; namely that an election (free and fair or otherwise,) is held someday, then the majority of the people vote for Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu.
Muntu then becomes the president succeeding the 33 years plus and still counting current leader of Uganda Gen Yoweri Museveni. Not at all. Presumably, Muntu is now settled with like-minded people after launching a new party, the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT.)
On the face of it and by the look and record of those who are allied to the ANT, it is a party which will front dialogue and a non-confrontational approach to the ruling party.
In FDC where Muntu was as a national mobiliser and a party president, he was thrust into a strategy of uncompromising militancy and antagonism, which did not seem to fit his character and known conduct. But due to peer pressure, he adopted a form of speech in which he talked tough and at times confronted the police and other authorities whenever they attempted to disrupt FDC activities (as is the wont.)
Some felt he did not exactly measure up or worse still equal and surpass Kizza Besigye’s defiant demeanour. So they called him too soft and a mole of the NRM.
Now he can be his own man and walk his walk, his own way without the foot soldiers he leads stabbing him in the back and pulling his coat tails. He may also talk to whoever he wants, however he wishes, without the same burden above.
The greatest challenge Muntu faces though is that in Uganda’s current situation, the political culture fostered by the NRM seems to glorify leaders who are militant. There is a belief that only those who can prove that they have the capacity to sponsor, sustain and contain violence are the only ones who should be trusted with holding and maintaining peace and stability. Again that only those who have the same militant trait have a chance of upending the status quo, which Museveni presides over.
So Muntu in this vein, despite being a military man, may not make a sale when it comes to garnering legions of animated voters to follow him. He is also not known to be your run-of-the-mill politician. Muntu won’t be caught bending over backwards, shaking his backside in dance or sharing a meal with the hoi polloi at a roadside restaurant, in an attempt to go and meet the people where they are. He is more of the studious ‘wooden’ type who comes to life while mulling over policies and proposals at round tables with reasonable and rational people.
So then, how does he stand a chance to succeed Museveni?
My thoughts on the Museveni succession are that he will not be removed from office by a defeat at an election because those are never exactly straight.
Secondly, Museveni is unlikely to be forced out by the gun because he has marshalled a firm control of the tools of coercion.
Thirdly, Museveni may not leave on his own volition because of public opinion that makes it shameful for one to overstay in office while giving excuse upon excuse, manipulating the Constitution and telling lies after lies.
Besides, the possible hurdle of ill health as he ages (something which is countered by the advancement in modern medicine and the way he seems to look after himself very well,) the foreseeable threat to Museveni’s hold onto power is degeneration from within the NRM.
Governments that hold onto power for long, tend to decay with time because they are manned by people recruited based on ethnic considerations. Most of their patronage is founded on pecuniary interests, not patriotism or passion. They also thrive on destroying their opponents. Those who oppose them are beaten into submission. The rest are compromised into worthlessness with meal tickets and rides on the gravy train.
With time, the existence of these governments becomes a risk because of the many angry impoverished people who lose patience with them and crime becomes a way of survival for many, including those who hold the gun. Protests and measures to counter them may end up in instability and civil wars that risk the resources of the donors and investors, who are the main stay of the economy.
These countries may also become a haven for terrorists who form cells in them due to the breakdown of a strong centralised power structure and a security apparatus that is susceptible to manipulation and compromise. Before this happens, the so-called international community may have to come in and force all parties into a negotiated settlement, which may result in hand-picking a leader to lead a transition government.
If this happens to a country like Uganda, those associated with the regime will be too tainted to be trusted with power. Then those that have eternally opposed the regime displaying anger and have been beaten and humiliated along the way like the Besigyes, may be feared because it is suspected that if they took over power, their first priority will be vengeance leading to instability.
They may also be looked at with trepidation as being of the ‘same ilk’ as the violent people they opposed. Also that they remained in the trenches for so long, it may be assumed that if they took over, they may also want to hold on for a while to compensate for ‘lost time.’
This is where ‘weak’ people like the Muntus will come in handy. Because they were in for dialogue with the regime, they may be trusted with power as a more ‘understanding’ lot. Secondly, because they do not have a huge following, they will always need to keep dialoguing and compromising. This is what makes the prominent positioning of Muntu as a party leader a very significant development.
Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political
and social issues. [email protected]. Twitter:@nsengoba
