Are movements in Opposition today progress or turbulence?

The rise of Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, the MP for Kyadondo East Constituency, has brought a new dimension in the alignment of existing political parties.

His successful mission to campaign for candidates under the banner of “People Power” in different parts of the country irrespective of party colours and creed combined with his charisma and massive support among the youth, has sent many thinking.

For some, a joint coalition with Bobi Wine in a prominent part of the picture is in many minds. But this comes with some troubling questions:
If Bobi is supported as a king-maker, then grows by leaps and bounds and success gets into his head, does that not become a problem in case he decides to support one opposition candidate against another?

What would happen to the coalition if say he supports his brother Eddie Yawe for the Kira Municipality MP seat where he tried, but failed to beat incumbent MP Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda the last time?

Same case applies to the Michael Sseninde Mabikke and Denis Mukasa Mbidde types whose sights are on seats held by prominent members of the Opposition like the Lord Mayor of Kampala Erias Lukwago and Masaka Municipality MP Mathias Mpuuga respectively.

How will Bobi Wine play the balancing act. Will he opt for those hanging around him as a show of solidarity for the current moves to a coalition or remain aloof?

How will these people who are doing all it takes to depict him as the de facto Opposition leader in anticipation of his patronage react if he is non-committal in supporting them outright?

In case he goes all out to upset the status quo by being loyal to those who are supporting him, what will the backlash be like and what effect will it have on the Opposition?

What if Bobi Wine interests many young people in politics and delivers huge support for the Opposition, won’t he be tempted to seek to be the principle? Would that not overshadow those who have been at it for a longer time than he has, especially those below 55?

Wouldn’t that bury their ambitions for good making them think otherwise about the coalition? Then obviously, of course, will the ‘traditional Opposition’ people such as FDC’s Kizza Besigye and his supporters allow to be left by the way side?
Then, of course, there is the phenomenon of ‘moles’ within the Opposition. Gen Mugisha Muntu, formerly of the FDC party, left because he was considered to be spying for the ruling party and is now deep in circles of ‘togetherness of the Opposition’.

If a whole military man, who purportedly has and fought, can be unsettled and unnerved by a mere rumour about being a spy, to the extent of causing a near break in a political party, then the desired coalition is facing a risk.

You can be sure as night follows day, that more rumours will be generated by the usual suspect and directed at members of the envisaged coalition to disconcert its members and affect its cohesion.

The era of fake news and social media will make that easily possible with photoshop and deliberate photographic misinterpretation coming in handy.

The other very pertinent issue is the financial status politicians in general and those of the Opposition in particular. Politics is a big money game. If you expect to establish yourself as an Opposition politician, you will most probably have to overcome two major obstacles:
The first is the one from an Opposition candidate, who more often than not, has backing from the party, which in fact uses taxpayers’ money to support its members. Then you may have to contend with an established Opposition candidate because you may desire to contest in ‘soft areas’ ie areas that are already in favour of the Opposition. Trouble is that most of these have incumbents, who are in Parliament and will do all it takes to retain those seats.

Some in the Opposition, especially the new ones and those who have failed on several occasions, may be ready to swallow their pride and take funding from anywhere, including the NRM. They will then stand as independent candidates and split the vote of the Opposition to the advantage of the ruling NRM.

The taste of a united Opposition will come towards election time when it will require a spirit of give and take. It will be everyone to themselves when it comes to who stands in which constituency, which in fact means who goes on to get a good salary entitled to holders of political offices.

Bread and butter issues have always brought out the true colours in human beings leading to push and shove. The Opposition in Uganda has no promising history of unity to look up to. The current moves may seem like progress, but sure enough, a storm is coming and that day is not very far away.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social
issues. [email protected].
Twitter:@nsengoba