Kampala votes elude Museveni despite years of courtship

“You handed over Kampala to me,” Ms Kamya, a one-time presidential candidate, said in Luganda referring to her ministerial docket. “Mr President, in 2021 you will win Kampala by 80 per cent and above. You know my ability in mobilisation and will ensure that my pledge comes to pass.”
She continued: “Ugandans are happy with you; forget about what other people are saying. The President is still in shape and energetic. Let me tell you, no person in Uganda has stamina like President Museveni.”

Five years later, Mr Museveni has lost Kampala by even a bigger percentages to National Unity Platform’s (NUP) Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu than he did in 2016 when FDC’s Kizza Besigye, who took the capital by 65.9 per cent, which has made Ms Kamya subject of online ridicule with many asking her to come out and explain this loss.

Mr Museveni’s efforts to paint Kampala yellow have been wide-ranging, from doling out money to unemployed youth, enticing Opposition leaders to decamp to his NRM by giving them positions in his government, to introducing the KCCA Act, which gave the President powers over the city, thus clipping the wings of the mayors who have continually been Opposition. But all of these have not delivered any worthwhile results.

Ever since 1996, the closest Mr Museveni has come close to winning Kampala was in 2011 when he got 48 per cent of the vote but was outdone by Dr Besigye who got 52 per cent in a campaign which was followed by galloping inflation with the government being accused of causing it since it had raided State coffers and bought off voters.  
Mr Museveni’s good performance in 2011 was in tandem with NRM’s overall performance in Kampala which saw the party get three parliamentary seats: Fredrick Ruhindi for Nakawa, John Ssimbwa for Makindye East and Muhammad Nsereko for Kampala Central, a feat that party has never repeated.
 
The 2016 elections saw NRM lose the gains they had made in 2011 with Mr Ruhindi losing his seat to FDC’s Michael Kabaziguruka, Mr Ssimbwa losing his seat to FDC’s Ibrahim Kasozi and Mr Nsereko quitting the NRM under acrimonious circumstances and has since made Kampala Central his own standing as an Opposition leaning Independent.
But by the time Ms Kamya made the now-infamous pronouncements, Mr Kyagulanyi hadn’t reinvented himself into a politician and perhaps he was still pre-occupied with churning out songs from his Kamwokya base.

But a 2017 by-election in Kyadondo East found Kampala’s neighbouring Wakiso District, led to the introduction of Mr Kyagulanyi who goes by the moniker Bobi Wine. Mr Kyagulanyi’s impact under his People Power movement, which has now morphed into NUP, reverberated beyond Kyadondo East and his impact was immediately felt in Kampala, more so in the slum areas where the musician- turned-politician traces his roots as a deprived young man.

When it became obvious that Mr Kyagulanyi was going to mount a serious presidential campaign using Kampala metropolitan area as a springboard, Mr Museveni moved to counter him in a very aggressive manner.
Mr Museveni started doling out money early and in 2019 he launched what was dubbed as NRM Youth Camp headquarters at the Kibuye Roundabout on the fringes of Kampala.
To win over Kampala’s ghetto youth, Mr Museveni had a lot of ammunition in his armoury. He unleashed the Presidential Initiative for Skilling the Girl Child in 2017.

The programme’s main objective was to equip youthful girls with hands-on skills to enable them create jobs and generate income. It was operated in seven Kampala centres such as Mutundwe Church of Uganda, Ntinda Kigowa Catholic Church, Nankulabye our Lady of Fatima Catholic Church, Wandegeya Market Northern Wing, Luzira at prison school, Subway between UBC TV and Crested Towers, and Katanga centre in Kawempe South constituency.   
In 2019, Mr Museveni presided over a graduation ceremony in which more than 8,480 girls who apparently had been taught various skills such as knitting, weaving, embroidery, shoemaking, tailoring, hairdressing, baking and confectionery, with each supposedly given by the government Shs1 million as start-up capital.

In anticipation that such projects were going to translate into votes that would overwhelm the Opposition, Ms Kamya chest thumped, saying how she had come through on her promise of turning Kampala into an NRM bastion.  
Still Mr Museveni was leaving nothing to chance. He put up a parallel structure which included socialites such as Jennifer Nakanguubi, popularly known as Full Figure, Mark Bugembe, alias Buchaman, who Mr Museveni whimsically appointed his advisor on the ghetto, and singer Catherine Kusaasira was tapped as the presidential advisor on Kampala affairs.

As Mr Museveni was assembling his team, Mr Kyagulanyi kept on rubbishing such moves: “He (Museveni) first dismissed us. But we persisted. He threatened us. We stood firm. He bribed some ghetto people but the ghetto youth stated on course. They asked me to continue shaking the tree because that is the only time they saw the government coming to them. Having failed in all his schemes; scared and desperate, President Museveni now returns as ‘Man of Ghetto.’ The sheer lack of shame! I can assure him that the authentic ghetto people will not permit him to mock them.”
Analysts insist though the separate structure was meant to counter Mr Kyagulanyi in his ghetto strongholds, it ended up backfiring.

“The people at the NRM Secretariat and hose within Kampala NRM structure like Uhuru did not give money,” Prof Sabiti Makara, a senior lecturer at Makerere University’s Department of Political Science and Public Administration, said referring to Salim Uhuru, the NRM’s chairperson for Kampala Central and the NRM candidate who won a race in Kampala when he secured the Kampala Central mayoral seat.

“Most of the money was going to the Buchman’s and Full figures and Ronald Mayinjas [singer]. So people within the structure didn’t put in much effort.”
Two sources that are familiar with the NRM organisations in Kampala admitted that Mr Museveni’s decision to start handing out money to celebrities and socialites demotivated many of their cardres who normally canvass votes for them.

“The foot soldiers saw the Kusaasiras with money yet they had nothing, and yet when the money came it was too little to do mobilisation of youth in Kampala who are more than two million,” the source who spoke on condition of anonymity said.
Other sources didn’t rule out the killing of more than 52 people by security forces during the protests that erupted last November after Mr Kyagulanyi was arrested as he was campaigning in the eastern district of Luuka.

“Many people felt the use of force was unnecessary and they came out to vote against the NRM,” a source said. “Government should try to solve these issues without resorting to violence. Look at how the new Deputy Inspector General of Police [Paul Lokech] handled well the situation when Bobi Wine was put on a chopper from Kalangala and taken to his home without taking him to prison.”
Even before Mr Kyagulanyi arrived on Uganda’s political landscape, Mr Museveni had moved to see that the repudiation he got from the people of Kampala isn’t repeated in 2021.

Though during their honeymoon, Mr Museveni had had earlier praised then KCCA executive director Jennifer Musisi Ssemakula, claiming that if he had “1,000 Jennifer Musisis, Uganda would be a very fine country,” but in a rather surprising U-turn, the President blamed the losses in 2016 on Ms Musisi since she had used harsh methods in bringing about trade order on the streets of Kampala which included violently evicting roadside vendors. In the process some lost their lives and other lost their merchandise.  

Once Musisi resigned in 2018, all the individuals that have served as KCCA directors either in acting or substantive capacity have recanted on the fights that pigeon-holed Ms Musisi’s reign and allowed Opposition politicians at City Hall, principally Erias Lukwago, the Lord Mayor, some breathing space.
Sources say Mr Museveni embraced a soft tact and choose to build new teams he hopes will deliver a better show than in 2016 polls and also counter a wave of dissent common in the urban areas and their ghettos.

On October 1, 2019, Mr Museveni perhaps in a move to please the youth who aren’t employed, ordered that city inhabitants rounded up in security operations and detained on charges of being ‘idle and disorderly’ should be immediately released.
Mr Museveni also directed that all the people arrested by KCCA enforcement personnel and are in prison for failure to pay a fine of Shs1m be released.

“The President has also directed that all those already arrested for this crime, be released immediately and prosecution discontinued. I hereby instruct all police officers to fully comply with HE the President’s directive on the above subject matter,” read a statement signed by police chief Martin Okoth-Ochola. “By copy hereof, the executive director of Kampala City. KCCA is also asked to comply with the directive of HE President of the Republic of Uganda.”

Though Section 167 of the Penal Code Act, which criminalises wandering persons, has never been repealed either by a court of law or by Parliament, Mr Museveni thought such decrees of his would please the urban youth and vote for him.  

But Kampala results right from the presidential race, parliamentary, mayoral race in which their candidate Daniel Kazibwe, alias Ragga Dee, came a distant third with a paltry 23,388 votes compared to Lukwago’s 194,592 votes, and also the ruling party has no councillor at the city hall, show Kampala perhaps will not warm up to Mr Museveni.
“The NUP bang hit so hard,” Prof Makara says. “I doubt anything they have would have done would have achieved the desired results.”

The “NUP bang” as Prof Makara called didn’t spare Ms Kamya who had promised Mr Museveni that NRM would dominate Kampala. NUP’s Abubaker Kawalya got 39,847 votes as Kamya who came a distant second joined the group of Mr Museveni’s ministers who lost their parliamentary races.