Guerrilla economics and the death of Uganda’s Opposition

News coming out of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC;) the leading Ugandan opposition political party from about 2004 to 2021, is that they have been split because of money.

The founding party President Dr. Kizza Besigye has walked off with one party, now known as the Katonga Road group. Patrick Amuriat Oboi, the current party president; accused of being compromised by huge money from the ruling NRM, is steadying the ship at the party headquarters in Najjanankumbi.

What started with so much promise in 1999 when Besigye wrote a lengthy critical missive about Museveni and NRM now almost lies in the realm of total failure.

Besigye captured the imagination of many of the generation that had grown up or lived imbibing from the victor’s propagandist well of the NRM. It vilified the independence political parties; DP, UPC, CP etc. as being divisive, myopic, sectarian and as such the main problem of Uganda’s cohesion and progress.

UPC was a defeated force. DP carried the guilt of failing to stand up to the excesses of the UPC by joining parliament in 1980 instead of following the ‘correct line’ that led to the bush and eventually the NRM victory of 1986. They were hopeless entities and therefore not an alternative to NRM.

Then like a bolt out of the blue, came Besigye. He was followed by droves from the time he contested in 2001 under the Reform Agenda well into the FDC when it was formed on 16th December 2004.

No one had seen anyone from within the NRM stand up to Museveni and even challenge him at the polls. Now you had  a tough talking soldier, former doctor and close confidant of Museveni with the indelible mark of the bush war on his shoulder looking him straight in the eye.

The goodwill born out of hope that eventually the NRM that had shown corrupt, sectarian and destructive dictatorial tendencies among many other faults, eased Besigye’s magisterial climb up the political tree and stayed there.

There is no doubt that FDC more than any other party has contributed to taming the NRM over the last 20 years.

But all this time when it was at its peak, it had an in-house problem. There were enduring accusations of infiltration by moles that had been compromised to spy and weaken the party. The accused claimed they were victims of intolerance and extremism in the party.

Many, like Alex Onzima, Christopher Kibanzanga, Beatrice Anywar, Bernard Atiku, Beti Kamya, Joyce Nabossa Ssebugwawo, etc. ended up in the ruling NRM. Out of FDC came another party the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) led by a one-time president of the party Mugisha Muntu.

When the current leading Opposition party NUP headed by Robert Kyagulany Ssentamu, a.k.a Bobi Wine, was launched in July 2020, many fled the FDC and other parties to join it. A good number ended up in Parliament.

Interestingly in NUP too there are accusations and counter allegations of members being compromised by the ruling NRM. The matter spilled out of the pan when former Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, Mr Mathias Mpuuga Nsamba, was given Shs500 million as a ‘service award’ by the Speaker Anita Annet Among-led 11th Parliamentary Commission. They now have MPs who no longer attend party meetings or visit the headquarters in Kampala for being on a blacklist of ‘eaters’.

This has given many politicians in the ruling NRM momentum. Many, who were defeated in the last election in the Buganda area by NUP, have smelt blood and are now declaring their intentions to stand again.

Why the Opposition in Uganda makes these giant leaps forward and then sprints backwards is a comment on the type of economics the NRM has presided over during the last 43 years. We are including the five in the bush. We shall call it guerrilla economics.

Characteristically guerrillas are destructive even when they are on the path of construction. That is how they subdue the State and make it meaningless. They also incapacitate  the people in whose area they operate just in case they decide to support someone else. This they achieve by removing vibrance and social-economic independence from the hands.

So, they destroy State installations and economic units like factories and use the scorched earth policies to spoil agriculture, and the environment. People now depend on food they don’t grow. In an agrarian setting many end up unemployed. They sell their land and head towards the city where they join the armies of the urban poor, the disguised unemployed, hangers on or criminals. Some use the proceeds to acquire an education but most likely end up unemployed.

Those who are ‘lucky’ end up in foreign capitals doing all sorts of paying jobs to survive.

Meanwhile the most thriving promoted enterprise is now politics. Here, rewards in terms of salaries and allowances for almost not serious productive work, is astronomical.

The trouble for, especially the Opposition, is that the deepest pockets in the land are on the trousers of the government. So, one must work with them. This means that they may have to go against the wishes of their own parties and what they stand for.

With destroyed agriculture, plus social services like schools and hospitals, the people are all over the MP, begging for support for school and hospital dues plus food for basic survival.

The MP whom they voted for is now safer being ensconced with the ruling government for opportunities to get some free money from allowances and other avenues, legal or otherwise.  

They must also get something for themselves for their social security when things go south.

FDC Katonga Road is mooting the idea of a new political party to solve the problem of moles. NUP is allegedly planning to massively weed them out ‘eaters.’

The trouble with both options is that however good the next crop of MPs will be, they will still have to operate in the social-economic environment created by NRMs destructive guerrilla economics.

This is not entirely a moral issue. It is an existential dilemma regarding bread and butter issues. These can’t be explained away by well-intentioned political platitudes in party platforms and constitutions. If the Opposition can not provide practical solutions to the social-economic challenges, both supporters and leaders will find themselves in bed with the ruling NRM.

The people and their leaders must eat and live their lives in the present. The promised future is not exactly guaranteed for people living on empty stomachs.

Twitter/X: @nsengoba