Will Kadaga breath under the bus?

Whatever happens, the Speaker of the 10th Parliament, Rebecca Alitwala Kadaga, is in a changed situation. It is the story after the NRM opted to have Jacob Oulanyah as its candidate for the Speaker of the 11th Parliament

How did the hitherto powerful number three of Uganda find herself under the Movement bus?

History has an enduring characteristic of repeating itself. But it also has in its wake, people who do not learn from it- even when it gawks them in the face.

Power in revolutionary governments like the NRM -despite all the talk of democracy and transformation- is concentrated in the hands of an individual. It happened with Fidel Castro in Cuba. Same case with Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Omar al Bashir in Sudan and Paul Kagame in Rwanda.

In Uganda’s case the Alpha male in the kraal, is President Yoweri Museveni, who has been at the helm of NRM government right from 1986 to date.

It is at his pleasure that individuals serve in his government and it is largely for his perpetuation that they so do.

For anyone to last in this set up, they should acknowledge this fact and be seen to make it work.

Kadaga is a glass ceiling breaker. In 1984, as a 27-year-old, she became the first female lawyer to open up her own law chambers; Kadaga and Company Advocates. Then in 2006 she became the first female head of the Legislature in Uganda’s history.

To get here, a person must among other things have great ambition. But such a spirit if not tamed may push one to run past their home. 

Being Speaker has raised Kadaga’s profile both at home and abroad. She is now called ‘powerful,’ not because of anything spectacular but the office she holds.

It has helped her to create networks and many will not want to cross her path because the office affords her leverage to grant favours and sanction to those who cross her path.

Cautiously, these networks are like a mirage. They cease the moment one is out of that office. History should have told Kadaga this one through the travails of the former powerful super minister and secretary general of NRM, Patrick Amama Mbabazi (JPAM) When JPAM tried to have a go at the presidency everyone assumed that because of the offices he held for decades and the power he wielded, he had many boots on the ground that owed him allegiance and patronage. When he was stripped of the offices he looked behind and found almost no followers and if at all they were there none was willing to stick out their neck for his cause.

Many times, this power and the privileges that go with the office of State one holds, if not approached judiciously, may land them in hot water.

The praise singers will be hovering around like vultures in the vicinity of a carcass telling one how they are ‘presidential material’ and enlarging their ego and impregnating them with false confidence.

They will start falsely assuming that most of the mundane work they do and for which they are rewarded ordinarily and officially is because of their exceptional hubris.

Before long, Kadaga forgot one of the cardinal laws of survival in the murky world of office politics, ‘never outshine the master.’

Yet to stay safe, most of the people in positions like the one Kadaga holds take it further and attribute all their success to the one who enabled them to get to, and hold the office. In this case, that is Museveni.

One lies low like an envelope and in every other sentence thanks the big chief like Museveni for leading the way and being a good teacher, leader, motivator who brings about everyone’s success.

You sensed that Kadaga’s goose was cooked when she started loudly and proudly counting ‘her’ achievements. Worse still, she made them sound like favours especially to Museveni for which he was supposedly indebted to her.

One of those feats was the passing of the Constitutional amendment that removed the age limit thereby facilitating Museveni to rule for life.

In this regard she made three significant mistakes. A leader like Museveni detests being held at ransom. He is the liberator and saviour of Uganda who should never be dared and disputed in any way.

Secondly, he markets himself as a democrat who derives his power from the people who repeatedly elect him overwhelmingly not because they are helping him but because they badly need his rare leadership skills.

It insults and contradicts him if an individual like a speaker claims his hold on power is because of her singular efforts.

Thirdly she tried to equate herself to him by questioning why the party organs like CEC do not subject Museveni to vetting like they did to her as Speaker. She forgot that revolutionary leaders are supposed to be viewed as immortal and therefore above ordinary laws.

So Kadaga even if she becomes a Speaker again at some point, she can be counted as a politician rolling downhill because she has exposed herself as being unfit to sit in the set up of a revolutionary party and leader.

All her efforts to remain politically relevant will be met with frustration. For instance, she could end up presiding over an underfunded institution which will force the traditionally impecunious MPs to regrettably view her as a liability.  Her networks will be visited by financial attacks and she will be socially isolated by picking out those who stick with her.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues

Twitter: @nsengoba