Energy transition: Prospects for the future

In a rural village in Jinja where I was born and raised, it was common knowledge that January and February were relatively warmer months. However, the ‘known’ weather patterns are long gone. Unpredictable weather patterns are the new normal!

Interestingly even the rich in Kampala’s swanky areas of Najeera, who previously believed that environmental challenges affect the poor as they drive flashy air-conditioned 4X4s, have not been spared by issues like heatwaves. In any case, Kampala’s rich people are more worried of heatwaves than their poor neighbours in Bwaise as labouring under the scorching heat is the norm!

Fortunately, the heatwaves coincided with the energy transition debates in the country. In 2023, Uganda launched the Energy Transition Plan which set an ambitious target of becoming carbon neutral and attaining net Zero emissions by 2065. Scaling down on the use of fossil fuels means significant reduction in emissions and realignment of Uganda’s development pathway to the global agenda. For some companies such as Uganda Airlines, it means business continuity as the global aviation industry demands that all airlines transition from fossil to sustainable aviation fuels by 2050. Similar processes are underway in automobiles.

In Uganda, the energy transition debates continue to be ‘actioned’ into the structures and policies of government. For instance, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development formulated the Legal Framework for the biofuels industry such as the Biofuels Act of 2020 and the Biofuels Regulations of 2022. On 1st July 2024, the mandatory blending of fuel will commence with a 1 percent by volume ratio blend (E1).

The key question is: How will Uganda benefit from the energy transition? First, is the possibility to avert energy instability and move to self-sufficiency. The 2008 post-election violence in Kenya and COvid-19 restrictions showed us that energy insecurity is real as they caused acute fuel shortage. Second is decarbonisation. Ugandans use 2.5 billion of petrol and 992.2 million litres of diesel per year. About 3.2kgs of carbon are emitted from a litre of petrol, and 3.7kgs of carbon are emitted from a litre of diesel. It means that 12.92114 billion kgs of carbon dioxide are emitted per year. So, blending 1percent by volume ratio (E1) means removal of 42.5 million kgs of carbon dioxide from the air.

Third, about Shs7.6 trillion  is used to import 2.5 billion litres of petroleum products annually. Thus, local production of bioethanol and biodiesel could save the financial resources and redirect it to other productive sectors of the economy.

Fourth, over 85 percent of Ugandans use firewood and 15 percent use charcoal for cooking. Heavy reliance on biomass has health and environmental implications.  It is also associated with forest cover depletion as 120,000 hectares of forest cover are lost annually. Therefore, ‘green’ fuels could save forests, reduce eye and respiratory illnesses that arise from exposure to toxic gases. Indirectly, there could be a significant reduction in the health budget and expenditure.

However, recouping these benefits and meeting the July 1, 2024 deadline is in the best interest of the key actors as a diseased population may, for instance cause overall reduction in the demand for fuels, and stifle growth and development. To register significant progress, the energy transition debate should be taken away from the noise in Kampala City to the local communities.

Dr Eria Serwajja,  Makerere university.