What to expect before 2023 winds up

Any lingering doubts about the outcome of the 2026 presidential election may cease when the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party unveils President Museveni as its sole candidate. 

A formal announcement may come before the end of this year. It will affirm a 2019 resolution by the Central Executive Committee, NRM’s top policy-making organ, which endorsed the President’s sole candidature for 2021, 2026 and beyond, so says Mr Richard Todwong, the party’s secretary general. 

Once the word is officially out, it will bring to a screeching halt rumours and speculations about Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s thinkable run for the presidency in 2026. 

The second key issue we should expect before the end of 2023 is a possible leadership change in the Democratic Party (DP). Mr Norbert Mao, the DP president-general, who has stoically weathered criticism from some influential politicians as well as rank-and-file members of the party, may, nevertheless, find it hard not to bow to mounting pressure and step down. 

In any case, Mao has positioned himself for bigger things in 2031 when he expects Uganda’s political map to change. (See, ‘I am preparing the country for peaceful transfer of power – Mao’ in Daily Monitor, October 3, 2022.)  I believe Mr Mao did his legwork well before signing a memorandum of understanding with Mr Museveni in 2022. His retention in Cabinet in 2026 is assured if the status quo prevails. Age is on his side; he can wait for 2031. 

But in the implausible event that Mao bows out, one likely – perhaps logical – political outcome to materialise before the end of this year is that DP and the National Unity Platform (NUP) party may initiate an arrangement for working more closely together. Both parties have a beefy foot in the central region.

Indeed, a good number of MPs who were elected on the NUP ticket in 2021 include those who bolted from DP, citing differences with Mao. Mr Mathias Mpuuga, the Leader of Opposition, led 10 other DP legislators, mostly from central region, who quit DP for NUP.

To further deepen the rift in DP, in November 2020 Mr Fred Mukasa Mbidde, the party’s vice president, without resigning, chose to back the presidential bid of Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, yet Mr Mao was a candidate. Mr Mbidde hails from Masaka in central region. Is it possible to deny that a link already exists between a faction in DP and NUP?

Still, for the foreseeable future, NUP and DP are likely to face two problems. First, they may find it difficult to wrest power from NRM if Museveni honours the CEC resolution for him to seek re-election ad infinitum. Secondly, this reality may dampen the excitement over the NUP electoral gains of 2021 in the central region; some voters may review their support for the party.

Another noteworthy issue to expect before 2023 comes to a close is that the severely divided Uganda Peoples Congress party may again shun talks about fielding a candidate for the 2026 presidential race.

Also in the mix of big issues this year will be rekindled strikes by public servants. Government’s response will be either promises to address the grievances or threats to sack strikers. The strikes are likely to be campaign issues highlighting the faulty decision-making that saw selective increments of salaries of science teachers, medical workers, and professors in public universities. 

It is unfortunate that the key sectors of education and health will again make negative headlines largely because government ignored a critical fact about decision-making: Develop alternative courses of action then select the best alternative. The time the government used to study the situation of teachers and health workers was insufficient, hence the hasty and costly decisions.

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March 3 is my 65th birthday. To celebrate 60 years in 2018 I acquired a scooter. Since then I’ve been swamped by requests from hundreds of children – some below five years – in Kumi District longing to “taste” it. If children were voters perhaps I would capitalise on voters’ longing to run for election in 2026. Isn’t that what politicians do in the name of serving the people?

Okodan Akwap (PhD), Associate consultant, Postgraduate Diploma in Journalism and Communication Management, Uganda Management Institute.