Is the DP-Amama marriage sustainable?
L-R: FDC flag bearer Kizza Besigye, former prime minister Amama Mbabazi and DP president Norbert Mao address journalists after a TDA meeting in Naguru, Kampala, last month. PHOTO BY ABUBAKER LUBOWA
Officially, the Democratic Party (DP) enters the forthcoming presidential elections in the unique and unprecedented position of having a candidate in the race but one who will not be the party’s flag bearer.
Since the 1980 elections, which the party believes it won but which saw the Uganda Peoples Congress take power, DP has engaged in several alliances, both officially and unofficially, with varied results. And what we are seeing in the run-up to 2016 is typical.
After the end of the bush war, the then DP president, Dr Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere and many party members joined the NRM government until he (Ssemogerere) resigned from his job as minister for Internal Affairs only to unsuccessfully challenge Mr Museveni in 1996. Dr Ssemogerere was the presidential candidate for the mainstream opposition under a coalition, the Inter-Political Forces Cooperation (IPFC).
When Dr Kizza Besigye left the NRM government in 1999 after issuing a dossier critical of Mr Museveni’s handling of power, again many DP members led by Dr Ssemogerere openly supported him.
It was not until 2006, with the first multiparty election since 1980, that DP decided to go it alone. The results were disappointing. The then DP president, Mr John Ssebaana Kizito managed just 1.58 per cent or 109,583 votes out of the 6.9 million votes cast.
The same disheartening performance was to be seen when DP went with current party president Norbert Mao in 2011. Of the 8.2 million votes cast, he managed to get 1.86 per cent or 147,917 votes. In that election, the DP had jumped out of an alliance with Dr Kizza Besigye’s Forum for Democratic Change and others at the very last minute
Having perhaps accepted the reality of its slim chances in a presidential race, the mainstream DP (an opposed faction is backing Dr Kizza Besigye) decided it was time to get into bed with someone. In this case, they said Mr Amama Mbabazi, the former prime minister, was the best hope after the Opposition coalition, The Democratic Alliance, collapsed and failed to agree on a joint candidate.
Questions now hang over whether Uganda’s oldest party will ever take power on its own to and put into practice what its motto, Truth and Justice, commands.
Gen David Sejusa reminded DP leaders of this when he was given an opportunity to speak at the delegates’ conference held in July at Katomi Kingdom Resort.
“Our military bases in the bush war in Buganda utilised your structures because UPM [of Museveni] did not have any structures in Buganda. Even Dr Kizza Besigye built his support and popularity in Buganda using DP structures. If DP has helped other people to get power, why can’t you take power yourself?”
In his recent missive about the happenings in TDA, Mr Mao pointed out that the party had embraced Dr Besigye with open arms when he abandoned the NRM despite several members, including himself, having misgivings about the decision.
“Our elders led by Dr Ssemogerere counselled us and we toned down. I grudgingly accepted their exhortations. I hosted Col. Besigye at a rally in Gulu and endorsed his candidature. He also campaigned for me for my second term as MP. The DP after years of sacrifice and with Ssemogerere making the first credible challenge against Museveni had every right to cling to the front seat and lead the convoy even if faster vehicles were behind thus slowing the journey. But DP thought beyond itself. It exercised generosity and swung the remnants of the party apparatus behind Besigye.”
So will this generosity cost the party? Secretary General Mathias Nsubuga says DP has learnt lessons from its past alliances. “We are not going into something we don’t understand. We have a memorandum of understanding with Mr Mbabazi, this is not like in the past when our leaders maybe settled for a gentleman’s agreement,” Mr Nsubuga says.
It is a clear assessment of the party’s strength that Mr Nsubuga says drove the party which opted out of the Inter-Party Coalition (IPC) in the run-up to the 2011 polls to work together with other “democracy seeking forces”
“The reason we came into TDA is because we believe it is virtually impossible to field candidates in every elective post. So, if DP cannot field a candidate in one area, may be FDC or JEEMA can.”
Bid to lead Opposition
But knowledgeable sources say that DP has not put all its cards on the table. Behind the façade of its seeming acquiescence, they say, is the cold calculation around an alleged plan, which, if it works, could see it depose FDC’s 10-year leadership of the opposition in Parliament by returning more MPs.
Currently, FDC has 35 MPs while DP and Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) have 15 and 11 MPs, respectively. This leaves FDC effectively in charge of the leadership of the Opposition in Parliament, a position which comes with all sorts of political and other privileges.
In the 2011 election, DP went into the race terribly divided but still fielded 103 contestants for the 375 seats which were up for grabs in Parliament. Only 12 members were elected. It’s three other seats were clinched in subsequent by-elections.
The factionalism and internecine strife which saw a number of DP members run as independents persist today and could still hurt DP’s fortunes.
Mr Mbabazi, according to sources, is, therefore, seen as useful support through which the plan to bolster their numbers in Parliament may come to fruition. He (Mbabazi) is believed to have the finances to facilitate the DP candidates which count for something in coming duels with FDC and NRM hopefuls.
But Mr Nsubuga denies any allegations that a quid pro quo is at play, one in which each party side is using the other for political gain. He maintains that the main objective is to end what he calls President Museveni’s dictatorship.
“A candidate may be good but may not have the structures and that is what DP is offering. There is no way of being used,” he said.
Mr Mbabazi has so far kept his cards to his chest and it is not clear what plans he has for both DP and others who back his candidature. Like her boss, Ms Josephine Mayanja Nkangi, the communications director of Mr Mbabazi’s team, called for patience when contacted.
“Our manifesto will come out after nomination and not before, so expect one (an explanation) then,” she said.
Meanwhile, the DP leadership has scheduled a meeting on October 16, which, according to spokesperson Kenneth Paul Kakande, will be addressed by Mr Mbabazi. It is time for the marriage watchers to bring out their magnifying glasses.
