The 2011 election campaign

In four days’ time, on Friday February 18, 2011, Ugandans go to the polls at the start of the process that will see them elect a president, members of parliament, mayors and various local council officials.

After all the anticipation that started as soon as the 2006 general election ended, February 18 has come with much less drama than had been anticipated.

Looking back at the election season that started with the party delegates’ conferences that elected presidential and parliamentary candidates, to the nominations on October 25 and 26, 2010, the countrywide campaigns and now the actual voting day, it is safe to say the election campaign has been largely conventional.

The only unconventional features of it were the “Another Rap” rhyme that National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate and incumbent President Yoweri Museveni came up with around the time of the nominations in October, and Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) President Kizza Besigye’s announcement of a fundraising effort of Shs500 from each well-wisher.

The independent candidate and Democratic Party (DP) member Samuel Lubega did and said nothing that was unconventional. Jaberi Bidandi-Ssali of the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) likewise had a tame campaign with no major issues that raised eyebrows.

Olara Otunnu, the former UN diplomat and President of the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) party was conventional as were Beti Kamya of the Uganda Federal Alliance, Norbert Mao, President of the Democratic Party and Dr Abed Bwanika of the People’s Development Party (PDP)
This conventional, unremarkable presidential campaign might be part of the reason many Ugandans say the 2011 election has not felt like an election, at least in the sense of there not being gripping drama and suspense.

Strife-filled races
However, the real drama, anger, and controversy came in the Kampala mayoral race. The academic qualifications of the NRM’s official candidate Peter Sematimba were questioned by his rival Kampala Central MP Erias Lukwago, only for Lukwago’s own qualifications to later be brought into doubt.

There was a bitter falling-out between another Kampala mayoral candidate Michael Mabikke and the IPC to which he at first belonged when the IPC moved to back Lukwago as its official flag bearer.
Capt. Francis Babu, a member of the NRM’s Central Executive Committee, also had the bitter experience of being shunned as the flag bearer for the mayoral race of Kampala where he would have expected that his seniority in the party gave him first right to the party’s endorsement over Sematimba. Much to the surprise of Ugandans, a most unexpected wave of challenges, bitterness, bickering and AK-47 rifle fights broke out in July and August during the NRM district chairman and then parliamentary nominations elections.

Considering the public face of unity and one voice that the ruling party often projects, Ugandans were taken aback by this NRM vs. NRM violence and accusations of rigging.
Even more surprising was how disgruntled NRM candidates repeatedly defied calls by President Museveni, the NRM Vice Chairman Moses Kigongo and the party Secretary General Amama Mbabazi for them to step down and give way to the official flag bearers. It had once been unheard-of for any public official, let alone one in Museveni’s own party, to openly defy him, a sign of things to come. One of the highlights of the campaign was the candidature of Irish-born Dr Ian Clarke, a medical doctor, proprietor of International Hospital Kampala and a some time columnist for the Sunday Vision newspaper. He is running for the LC3 chairman’s position for Makindye Division in Kampala. It was the first time since independence in 1962 that a European had contested for an elective office in Kampala.

Ugandans’ destitution
UPC’s Otunnu, both from the time of his return from self-imposed 23-year exile in August 2009 and throughout his campaigns across the country and his appearances on various radio stations, has echoed the same theme, lamenting what he termed “the humiliating poverty” that Ugandans find themselves in.
Virtually all the presidential, parliamentary and local council candidates were confronted by this sorry state in which Ugandans live. Campaign T-shirts supplied by the various taskforces were eagerly received. For many among the crowds at rallies, these free T-shirts were their first brand-new clothes since the last election in 2006.
During his campaigns, even Museveni found himself for most of the time not narrating what he had achieved since 2006 but explaining away to the crowds why the agricultural extension programmes had failed, why hospitals had no drugs, why the people before him were dressed in next to rags and why children in the primary seven class in rural areas still could not write their own names.

Opinion polls
The idea of opinion polls as a measure of the public mood was first introduced during the 2006 campaigns but quickly came under fire.
The controversy over opinion polls that started before the 2006 election returned in 2010 and 2011, with a public outcry accusing the polling firm AfroBarometer of having been compromised by the NRM-run state. Both in 2006 and 2010 and 2011, while the NRM party celebrated their findings, the opposition dismissed them as manipulated.
A poll published jointly by the firms AfroBarometer and Wilsken Agencies on December 16, 2010 put Museveni at 66%, Besigye at 12% and Mao at 3%.

Amid the celebration by the NRM and the disgusted condemnation of the poll by the opposition, most readers missed the most important fact of all: one of the final questions in the poll asked respondents whom they believed had commissioned the AfroBarometer/Wilsken field researchers. A telling 63% said they believed the pollsters had been sent by the government.

This alone raised the most fundamental question of how the final results could be taken as representative of the true public mood if this same public expressed its fear of stating its true views.
A poll published by the Sunday Vision on January 2, 2011 put Museveni at 64.5%. It too was dismissed by the opposition and many among the public.

There was a minor scandal when on December 31, 2010, the New Vision, which is a state-owned newspaper, claimed to have obtained the results of a poll commissioned by the opposition FDC and carried out by the research firm Synovate, in which Museveni stood at 67%. Synovate officials called a press conference and dismissing the New Vision story, said they had not conducted such a poll.

Meanwhile, the Daily Monitor had also conducted its own continuously unfolding poll on its website. This online poll started off with Besigye in the lead followed by Mao and then Museveni.

By Friday February 11, the poll had turned into a two-way race between Museveni and Besigye, with Besigye well in the lead with 342 votes, Museveni a distant second with 161 votes, Norbert Mao at 127 votes, Beti Kamya at 46, Olara Otunnu at 43, Samuel Lubega at 13, Abed Bwanika at 12, and Bidandi-Ssali at 11 votes. A notice on the website, however, qualifies that this poll is not scientific.

A live phone-in poll by CBS FM (or Radio Buganda) on December 17, 2010 had Besigye with a huge lead, followed by Mao in second place, Kamya in third and Museveni in fourth.

A live phone-in poll on the government-owned UBC Radio (or Radio Uganda) poll on Saturday January 22, 2011 gave Besigye first place followed by Museveni in second and none of the other six candidates got a single vote.

Money and bribes
Money, in the sense of bribery and buying out of rivals, was one of the most widely reported and rumoured issues of the campaigns. The impression all over Uganda was that the NRM was responsible for most of the bribery.

This attracted public attention most when members of parliament suddenly found Shs20 million (about $10,000) credited to their bank accounts by the government, ostensibly as funds to help them monitor government programmes.

Many in the opposition suspected that a trap was being laid for them and that if they took it, charges of offering bribes could be brought against them once the new Parliament commenced.

Led by Beatrice Anywar of the FDC, a procession began of returning the money and, of course, winning political capital and publicity in the process.

1980 vs 2011 polls
The 2011 election resembled the 1980 election for one main reason: it was the election in which the opposition challengers came into the race with their minds either made up that the election was a foregone conclusion because it was going to be rigged, or a high degree of suspicion that the incumbent party and leader planned to rig it.

The FDC President and IPC presidential candidate Kizza Besigye has repeatedly made it clear that after twice seeking legal redress in 2001 and 2006, this time he will not go to the courts. He has not spelled out what he will do in the event that the election is, in his opinion, rigged.
UPC, DP, and FDC brought to the attention of the Electoral Commission several areas that they requested the Commission to investigate, but which the EC, they said, had failed to act upon.

This led the FDC and the DP to issue statements saying they would publicly tally and their own set of results. The EC at first angrily warned against this independent tallying of results and President Museveni even more angrily threatened to arrest and send Besigye to prison if he dared announce his own results.

They believed Museveni deliberately sidelined the people of Lango because of Dr Obote his nemesis. This view was hardened by the intriguing fact that while Museveni would give vehicles to all newly ordained bishops around the country, he never did the same to Bishop of Lango. Also, Museveni undermined himself further by repeatedly insulting Dr Obote, calling him names and vowing that the former president would be shot if Obote if he dared return to Uganda from his Zambian exile.
The Dr Obote died in October 2005.

Museveni grudgingly accepted to accord the two-time former president and father of the nation a state funeral. This was received well in Lango. He also toned down his abuse of Dr Obote and capped this all with a Shs100 million donation to Lango Diocese during a fundraising ceremony at which he presided over in October 2008.

He then made it a point to repeatedly visit the sub-region. Soon, politicians like Rebecca Amuge Otengo, Franco Ojur, Ebong Abongo and their followers were to defect to the ruling party – spreading the appeal of the NRM some more.

Some people say they will vote for Museveni this time. Reason: that even if he is voted out, Museveni may refuse to leave power. Others say they have voted opposition time and again but there has been no change.
But the same ambiguity about the presidential choice doesn’t automatically apply to other candidates. Money, it appears, will play a significant role. A common refrain goes like this: “The Langi are poor people at the moment. No one should deceive you that when one is given money, that person can forget about the one who gave it to him/her.”

Lango’s options
Dokolo directly elected MP: the incumbent Felix Okot Ogong is battling with little known Paul Amoru (FDC). Amoru is being helped by Cecilia Ogwal. Observers believe Okot Ogong will win the election with clear margin.

For Woman MP, Ogwal (FDC) is contesting with Ruth Adupa Atala (NRM) and Salome Ejang. Amolatar, Ojok, B'Leo (FDC) is contesting with three others, including his son Okello Yubu (UFA).

For Woman MP, people are not sure who will take the trophy between the incumbent Amali Caroline Okao (Independent) and Ayugi Mary Christine Odwe (FDC). There are three women in the race including UPC’s Angu Sophie Omara-Ebek.

The Incumbent has advantage over the others in that her husband Okao has a company the district contracted to drill and rehabilitate borehole in the district. During all the hand over ceremonies, Mrs. Okao would be present and this made the locals to believe she was the one gave them the water.

In Alebtong District, Ajuri County, Hamson Obua is running against four others including a woman - Abongo, O. Elizabeth FDC
And for Moroto County, incumbent Benson Obua Ogwal is being challenged by three others. Obua’s remarks recently that he did not deliver in the then Moroto because the area was so large was a blow to him. The main contest appears to be between Okullo Alex (NRM), Obua and Okot Alex (FDC).

The Woman seat is being contested by three women – Rebecca Amuge Otengo (NRM), Cecilia Agang (UPC) and Christine Acen (Independent). A lot of money is being given to Otengo’s opponents by NRM bigwigs opposed to her.

Another constituency to watch is Oyam North where the incumbent Ishaa Otto Amiza is battling with six others. The main challenger to Otto is Apac Woman MP Betty Amongi. In Oyam South, incumbent Ben Wacha is being challenged by five including former LRA legal representative Crispus Ayena Odongo, and former UPC presidential contestant Dickson David Opul.

All the three are though on the ground but Langi say ‘apac tong gweno ngeo pene’ (literally meaning a person used to removing shells from eggs knows where the umbilical code is)

For Woman MP, the incumbent Lagada Amongi Beatrice (NRM) is being challenged by Alum Santa Ogwang (UPC) Betty Acengy (FDC) and Winfred Auma (Independent).

The main battle is between Lagada and Aceng. Lagada may suffer because at one time she decampaigned LCV chairman Okello Engola yet he is largely seen as the one who helped her win the previous election.

Erute North is another constituency to watch. There is propaganda especially in Ogur that incumbent Charles Angiro Gutomo received money for construction of Barlonyo Memorial Technical Institute and swindled it.

Angiro denies this saying there is Shs400 million in the bank and a team of officials from Ministry of Education have recently visited Barlonyo to compensate people on whose land the school will sit.
Angiro considers his main challenger as Christopher Odongo (Independent)

In Erute South, John Odit and Sam Engola have equal chances at the moment. Observers say Engola is using lots of money especially to rehabilitate churches.
In Apac Disitrct, Maruzi County, money man Maxwell Akora (UPC) faces three others – and he appears to be giving them a run for their money. Akora has painted Apac red with his t-shirts.

In Kwania, Willy Washington Anokbongo who lost in the UPC primaries is standing as an Independent candidate against former Obote deputy minister of finance Henry Makmot, Henry Milton Bonima (Independent) and former Premier Cosmas Adyebo’s younger brother Geoffrey Alex Ogwal (UPC) commonly known as Ogwal Adyebo. Apac Woman seat is being contested by three women Lucy Ajok (UPC), Agnes Akello Ebong (NRM) and Dorothy Otim (Independent). Ms Ajok, a former maid to Dr Obote, is likely to win as she is supported by Maxwell Akora.

In Otuke, there is stiff battle between Lands minister Omara Daniel Atubo (NRM) and Fr. Ogwal Jacinto Deusdedit (UPC). Atubo is being accused of being jealous and proud with some residents saying he Atubo believes he is the only one who can manage everything.
It is thus apparent that in this election the UPC, FDC and NRM have all fielded candidates, making the likelihood of upsets not impossible.

Something appears to have happened since those threats, because by the last week of the campaign, the EC was stating that it was okay to tally their own results as provisional just as long as the final official results were left to the EC to announce.

After Feb. 18 …
As it was in 1980, something is being quietly discussed and dreaded among the public: there is a growing sense of unease in the country that the aftermath of the election needs to be watched more keenly than the actual polling day.

There is a feeling, not yet concrete but somehow lingering in the back of many minds, that some kind of Plan B is being contemplated or hatched in the shadows as was done by the former Defence Minister Yoweri Museveni and the former deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Andrew Kayiira even before the 1980 elections.

On January 18, Annet Namwanga --- a secretary at the Mulago Hospital School of Nursing and Midwifery and wife to the former editor of the now-defunct DP-affiliated Citizen newspaper Lawrence Kiwanuka --- was arrested by Military Intelligence officers.

According to the army, Namwanga had attempted to hurl a grenade at an unnamed army detach somewhere in Kampala and for five years since 2005, she and some other accomplices had secretly been acquiring intelligence information, grenades, motorcycles and money for activities that were nothing short of guerrilla warfare or sabotage.

The facts of this case remain obscure. However, even if Namwanga is later found to be innocent of the charges, something about them sounds unsettlingly like what history now records was taking place just before and for five years after the 1980 elections.

Since the mid 1990s, the Daily Monitor and other newspapers in Kampala have published “Bush War Memories, accounts by those who took part in the guerrilla war that brought Museveni and the NRM to power in 1986.

Many of these guerillas and collaborators were unassuming and obscure members of the general public --- lorry drivers, doctors, nurses, diplomats, school teachers, private security guards, civil servants, university tutors, members of the Buganda, Toro and Ankole royal families, market vendors, police officers, and even priests.

As life went about its ordinary pace, in deep secrecy many Ugandans were providing shelter to NRA, UFM and FEDEMU guerrillas, supplying them food, recruiting and transporting them to the forests of Mpigi and Luwero, providing intelligence, false documentation, treating the wounded at government hospitals and private clinics and other innocuous tasks.
Furthermore, we now know from these published accounts, Rwanda, Kenya, Britain and Libya at various times and in various ways helped the NRA and UFM acquire arms, financing or travel routes between 1981 and 1986.

Familiar nightmare
This is the nightmare scenario that many familiar with Ugandan history dread, a return to guerrilla warfare because a sizeable portion of the population is convinced that the election was rigged.

The feeling, then, is that while in some way February 18, 2011 will be the end of the campaigns and the voting, it could well be the start of a new page in Uganda’s political history, the shape and results of which nobody knows.