Inside candidates plan to put money in your pocket

Nearly three quarters of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) manifesto is about socio-economic interaction and how a combination of the two sectors can deliver what the ruling party presidential candidate, Mr Yoweri Museveni, refers to as the real economy.

Mr Museveni says the real economy is one that is capable of responding to the basic human needs.
The NRM manifesto whose theme is ‘Securing Your Future,’ pitches the real economy concept as the perfect prescription for the country’s economic future.

The idea of a real economy is not a new concept. It is part of the original National Resistance Army (NRA)’s 10-point programme.
The entire NRM manifesto, according to researcher Paul Corti Lakuma, is anchored on the early vision of NRA/M as highlighted in the 10-point programme.
Three of the original 10-point programmes the NRM manifesto talk about is building an independent, integrated and self-sustaining national economy.

Point number nine speaks about co-operation and economic integration with other African countries while number 10 is about building an economic strategy of a mixed economy.   
After nearly 35 years at the helm, Mr Museveni and the NRM party believe that the country is now ready for economic take-off—development. But before that phase, he promises a renewed focus on fighting unemployment.

The incumbent President says during the next five years, the NRM’s focus will be on creating more productive jobs and ensuring prosperity of all Ugandans.    
By addressing factors of production such as land, labour, capital, and entrepreneurship, accelerating industrialisation with import substitution and export promotion, the NRM is convinced that the remedy for youth unemployment will be found.
    
Mr Museveni is also looking at undertaking massive skilling and facilitating the youth and women across the country to create productive jobs for everyone.  
Supporting the 69 per cent homesteads in subsistence farming to commercialise and create wealth for themselves and raise household incomes through up scaling the Operation Wealth Creation (OWC) programmes also remains top on NRM’s agenda.

Candidate Museveni also promises to address challenges contributing to the old problem of high cost of doing business such as exorbitant cost of credit, electricity and transport.
In totality, the NRM 2021-2026 economic manifesto still draws its inspiration from the original NRA/M 10 point programme. By staying loyal to the original party programmes, President Museveni has demonstrated faith in his own ideas about three decades later.

FDC sticks to micro-economics
The economic game plan for the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party has not really changed much from that of 2016.
The 47-page party manifesto makes some bold pronouncement pertaining to the welfare of people operating in the informal sector, which constitutes nearly half of the country’s economy.
The National Labour Force Survey (2016/17) found that the majority of Ugandan youth aged 18-30 years are either unemployed or employed in the informal sector. And less than 15 per cent have formal jobs.

Perhaps, this explains why the FDC presidential candidate, Mr Patrick Amuriat describes himself as the candidate of the sidelined peasants, struggling workers and millions of unemployed youth.
FDC in its manifesto promises one million jobs every year that will be created through different government programmes which the party will initiate once in power.
When talking about agriculture, which accounts for the livelihood of about seven of every 10 Ugandans, Mr Amuriat believes the State must deliberately invest more in the sector to realise return on investment.

If elected president, he pledges to provide cheap fertiliser to increase food production. This will be in addition to supporting value addition to improve the incomes for farmers, and reviving cooperative societies to enhance production and marketing.
Investment in productive sectors such as agriculture, trade, industry, and tourism, given their potential to generate jobs for the youth is also part of what the FDC manifesto describes as a short cut to the Youth Livelihood Fund and venture capital.  

Instead FDC says it will establish a fully capitalised national agricultural bank.
The FDC manifesto is generally committed to specific microeconomic issues pertaining to individuals, households and firms. Most of its policies generally apply to markets of goods and services and deals with individual and economic issues.

NUP bold nationalistic tendencies
The National Unity Platform (NUP) 47-page manifesto opens with a pledge for inclusive economic development.
More than half of NUP economic policies is geared towards improving the well-being of citizens who feel either excluded or discriminated against or simply believe the economy is not working equitably.
If elected, Mr Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, promises to concentrate on closing the widening inequality gap that all the presidential candidates acknowledge is the elephant in the room.

Whereas the size of the economy has doubled from Shs64 trillion in 2010/2011 to Shs128 trillion in 2018/2019, the inequality gap has instead been widening, with poverty rising by 21 per cent, according to government statistics.
With Covid-19 crisis taking a toll on the economy, the country’s abject poverty levels have between January and August risen from 21 per cent to a projection of 25 per cent.
Bobi Wine wonders how the country registers increased exports from $3.83 billion to $ 5.3 billion over a span of 1o years yet the population in rural areas where the raw materials are sourced remains in abject poverty.

And for that, the NUP government promises to revive cooperative movement and scale up agricultural extension services. This will be in addition to addressing perennial issues of limited finances, inadequate infrastructure, insufficient skills needs, and unfair competition from low-cost producer countries supplying poor-quality products.

To deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, NUP promise to pay attention to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). For youth unemployment, NUP government will provide soft loans under the Youth Livelihood Programme (YLP) and the Women Enterprise Programme.
Bobi Wine promises enforcement of the copyright law. He also promises to provide skills training in film and music production.

DP’s economic covenant
The Democratic Party (DP) with Mr Norbert Mao at the helm prefers to refer to their manifesto as the new covenant. The new covenant economic policies are rather simple and specific.
In the new covenant, there are 21 pillars that have been summed up into five. Of the five, the second pillar speaks of shared prosperity.
Mr Mao says the gap between the rich and poor is very wide and if elected president, he pledges to close it.

 One way to do that is through taking care of demand side pressures. This means that no matter how small one earns, there will be no pressure on their disposal income because under the government of Mr Mao, no one will pay for rent, water and electricity.

Mr Mao’s government will also take care of school fees and medical bills. He believes that no one will feel excluded from the economy after tackling the problem of low pay from the demand side.
Therefore, his economic covenant hinges on the concept of government as provider of goods and services that individuals cannot provide individually for themselves is well articulated.

Alliance for National Transformation
The Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) party manifesto believes that you cannot give what you don’t have.   
ANT is of the view that for the economy to work, the politics and the leadership question must first be fixed.

The party believes that because of the current personalised, divisive politics, those with power enjoy all the benefits of the country’s resources to the exclusion of the rest of the country. According to ANT, a few connected people make money while the majority of the hard working entrepreneurs are forced to close shop before their first anniversary.

The party says building institutions will be the only way to enable sustained growth, including effectively managing equitable distribution of resources. Institutions are important because according to ANT, in cases where key decisions depend on individuals, corruption, nepotism and patronage thrive.
ANT’s brand of economics is anchored on normalcy, something that the party presidential candidate, Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, promises to implement once elected.

 Human capital development
Independent presidential candidate Gen Henry Tumukunde under his platform ‘Renewed Uganda’ believes that the country has been treated to a raw deal economically. And to unlock that, his focus will be on developing and harnessing stock of habits, knowledge, social and personality attributes embodied in the ability to perform labour so as to produce economic value.

This in short means taping into the population human capital. Gen Tumukunde believes that once human capital is harnessed optimally, other economic challenges can easily fit into the puzzle.
The former Security minister is fascinated with the idea of human capital and the idea of knowledge economy. And should he win the mandate of the people on January 14, the country will be introduced to an economic system in which human capital is the number one pillar.

Education economy
Independent presidential candidate Nancy Kalembe believes the economy is shaped by the existing education system. And for Uganda’s case, she believes the education system has been designed to churn out job seekers as opposed to job creators.
Under the banner of Mission 56, Ms Kalembe says no one will be left behind as she will provide what she describes as servant leadership.
She will deal with unemployment through application of knowledge and technology.  She also believes that a new Uganda is the only way to guarantee economic growth and development.   

The pocket economy
Independent presidential candidate Joseph Kabuleta’s ideas are solely focused on economic liberation at individual and household level.  His tag is financial liberation.
 “Financial prosperity is my mission. Ugandans must have money into their pockets. And that can be achieved with Innovation and production,” Mr Kabuleta says.

He says people should not suffer when the country is endowed with natural resources.
Mr Kabuleta argues that corruption is inhibiting economic development and that if he is elected president, he will break that chain.
He describes those in employment but struggling to meet the basic needs as people in gloried slavery, saying these are things he will work to eliminate once voted president.

Mr Kabuleta promises to have agriculture contribute more to economic growth than is the case right now. This will be done through a model where cooperatives will be central to the plan.
He says each region will be clustered and matched according to soil and type of crop that can thrive there. Professional advice of extension officers will be sought and his government will take up marketing responsibility.

Land being a factor of production will be titled and secured to allow farmers practice agriculture without worries of losing their land to land grabbers.
Local banks that lend and also provide insurance agriculture will be established and value addition will be implemented once subsistence farming has been transformed entirely into commercial farming.
Mr Kabuleta reinforces the idea that the economy lives primarily in your pocket. He also believes that once the financial challenge is sorted, then everybody is happy.

Pray and believe economy  
Mr Fred Mwesigye, another independent presidential candidate, says a manifesto doesn’t mean anything because even the one in power right now has a manifesto that hasn’t solved the country’s problems yet. He believes love based on the fear of God is the liberator for everything, including the economy. Everything should be committed to God in prayers and we will all be fine, he says.

Living on hope
Presidential candidate Willy Mayambala believes that everything is possible. He says he lives on hope. And that is why his manifesto is in his heart and nowhere else. He says agriculture will be his administration’s focus. And for that will provide grants to promote agriculture with a view to turning Uganda into the world food basket.

Under his administration, agricultural inputs will not attract any tax. And importantly, he will establish silos and that government will be the main purchaser of agricultural produces.
And through modernisation of agriculture, which he says he will spearhead, the unemployment problem will be solved as most youth will be absorbed into the sector.
Mr Mayambala’s interest in agriculture positions him as the man for the farmers.  

Youthful energy  
Mr John Katumba, 24, is ambitious. He says he is an example of unemployed youth trying to find his purpose and build a future. He says he has nothing to offer to the electorate, but should he become the youngest president ever, he will fight poverty of the minds, saying the biggest chain keeping young Ugandans is economic slavery.

He does not like the idea of young Ugandans doing casual jobs abroad, saying this can be solved by making agriculture more attractive and high value. The fact that Uganda is a net importer causes Mr Katumba sleepless nights. And this is worsened by the fact that the country’s economy is largely controlled by foreign investments.

To begin with, he says the road sector will be made by Ugandans as he will ensure that 90 per cent of contracts are granted to Ugandans by his third year in office. It is difficult to pinpoint with precision where Mr Katumba’s economic focus is. But from his utterances his seems to be leaning towards economic patriotism and economic populism. He seems to believe that state intervention and control is and should be used to control or redirect the economy, labour, and capital formation.

Key facts
 The latest National Labour Force Survey (2016/17) found that the majority of youth aged 18-30 years are either unemployed or employed in the informal sector. Whereas the size of the economy has doubled from Shs64 trillion in 2010/11 to Shs128 trillion in 2018/19, the inequality gap has instead been widening, with poverty rising by 21 per cent, according to government statistics.

Analysts speak out
According to the head of the Microeconomics Department at the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), Dr Madina Guloba, all manifestos speaks more or less about the same challenges.

He says there is a dash to attract the attention of young people, but with no detailed discussion so far on how issues of unemployment will be dealt with exactly.
“All manifestos need to prioritise social services because this is something that doesn’t not need to be bargained. And the social services I am talking about are proper health services, good education and clean water. Once we have those, others will simply fit into the puzzle,” Dr Guloba says.

Mr Corti Paul Lakuma, a researcher on policy issues at the Economic Policy Research Centre, states that there is nothing new in the manifestos. He advises that whoever becomes president should improve sources of income by creating facilities around agro-industrialisation.
He said most of the presidential contenders believe that once the political question is solved, everything else will fall in line.

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