Five wars poised to define peace, security in East Africa in 2015

Last year was an annis horribilis — a horrible year — for peace and security in Africa generally and East Africa in particular.

Scanning the horizons, there are no guarantees that 2015 is going to be better. Peace and security are in the thralls of a triple threat of terrorism, epidemics and unstable democratic transitions, leading to civil wars along ethnic lines.

In 2014, terrorism became deadlier than ever. The problem of the 20th Century was the “colour line” (racism and colonialism) as W.E.B. Dubois averred; but, clearly, the problem of the 21st century is the “faith line” (faith-based extremism).

Local and regional terrorist groups such as al-Shabaab in Somalia and Boko Haram in Nigeria closed ranks with international terrorist networks, particularly al-Qaeda.

The brutal insurgent group, Boko Haram, continues to destabilise parts of Nigeria, especially the northeast. In 2014, the group created worldwide uproar when it abducted more than 200 schoolgirls. It has extended its territory to Cameroon and could soon spill over into Niger and Chad.

Similarly, the al-Qaeda affiliated al-Shabaab militia intensified bombing within Somalia, but also targeted countries contributing troops to the African Mission in Somalia (Amisom), mainly Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Djibouti.

The year 2014 witnessed increasing radicalisation of Christianity in response to the threat of radical Islam. In Kenya, sections of the Christian clergy called on the government to arm them to counter the bombing of churches and killing of the faithful by al-Shabaab and their local cells and sympathisers.
In the Central African Republic the anti-Balaka Christian militias armed and waged war on the Muslim Seleka militia.

Epidemics such as HIV/Aids, malaria and more recently the Ebola virus spread to six African countries — Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, Mali and Nigeria — devastating communities and claiming thousands of lives.

Described by the World Health Organisation as the largest, most severe and most complex outbreak in the history of the disease, the scourge of Ebola has affected more people and claimed more lives than those maimed or killed in terrorist-related attacks across the continent.

As of January, of the 20,712 confirmed cases of Ebola in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the three countries with the highest transmission in West Africa, 8,220 had died.

Ebola thrived on state fragility and weak local capacity to respond to the disease, especially in countries such as Liberia and Sierra Leone emerging from protracted civil wars. Of the 20 cases reported in Nigeria, only eight died. Although Ebola cases were reported in Spain, the United States and the United Kingdom, only one death occurred in America. The regional response to Ebola was weak, and international support too little too late.

Ultimately, stabilising African states is central to building local capacity to respond to and contain the scourge of epidemics, including Ebola.

However, democratic transitions are everywhere haunting peace and security in Africa; 2014 witnessed popular uprisings in countries where incumbents refuse to hand over power or pave the way for democratic elections, with some going out of their way to amend their constitutions to allow them to stay longer in power.

In Burkina Faso, the incumbent, president Blaise Compaore, fled the country on October 31, 2014, following protests against his bid to amend the constitution to enable him to run for another term in office. The country is expected to hold presidential elections by November of this year.

In 2015, conducting peaceful elections to entrench democracy remains the greatest threat to peace and security in Africa as countries such as Burundi, Tanzania, Guinea, Nigeria, Liberia and Burkina Faso prepare to go to the ballot box this year for either presidential or general elections.

The single lesson from the much-hyped “Arab Spring” is that the forced removal of despots by popular unrests has not resulted in stronger democracies. In Egypt, a hijacked revolution has witnessed the return of the military to power through a brutal and manipulated election.

Despite holding a democratic election this year, Tunisia is still deep in the woods. And the state of peace and security in Libya, now locked in a deadly civil war, is far much worse than before the exit of Muamar Gaddafi and the future is far more uncertain.
East Africa was spared the scourge of Ebola, but peace and stability in the region are threatened by terrorism and instability relating to democratic transitions.

The region is experiencing five wars — in Somalia, South Sudan, eastern DR Congo, and Sudan — that are poised to fashion the future of peace and security.

DR Congo - transition amid militia wars
In Kinshasa, president Joseph Kabila’s two terms are almost over and general elections are due to take place in the country this year. Kabila’s legitimacy is already wearing thin, and he is barred by the constitution from running for a third term. But there are signs that he may attempt to tinker with the law to delay the vote and prolong his stay in power.

This is likely to spark widespread protest as in Burkina Faso. In the context of the violence in eastern DRC, which is largely a symptom of Kinshasa’s bad governance and state dysfunction, the coming vote is critical for stability.

Security reforms that president Kabila promised in 2013 have largely stalled. In 2013, Congolese troops backed by a special UN contingent, the Force Intervention Brigade (FIB), defeated the M23 militia in eastern DR Congo, but the UN and its regional partners have failed to demobilise other militias.

Fighters of the Ugandan rebel group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) continue to massacre villagers in its area of operations.

The presence of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a remnant of the Hutu militia forces behind Rwanda’s genocide in 1994, in eastern DRC, continues to be a source of tensions between countries in the region. The role of Tanzania as troop contributor to FIB has not gone down well with Rwanda and Uganda.

There is no agreement on the best strategy against the FDLR. Rwanda and its allies in East Africa insist on military action.

Tanzania, South Africa and sections of the international community insist on softer measures, including a disarmament plan, third-country resettlement and an agreement on the judicial process for its leaders.

Sudan - continuing conflict
The general election in Sudan, scheduled to take place in April, will have far-reaching implications for peace and security in East Africa.

Last October, the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) settled on the long-serving incumbent, president Omar Hassan al-Bashir, as its candidate in the 2015 presidential poll.

The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) resolved the question of the self-determination of South Sudan. But still undecided is the question of the future of Abyei and Kordofan regions. Tension has also continued over the sharing of oil revenues with South Sudan.

Sudan has threatened to block the transportation of oil through the country. Tension between the two Sudans is likely to haunt the search for regional peace and security in 2015.

A new political agreement, known as the Sudan Call, was unveiled in December 2014 and it unites a formerly fragmented political and armed opposition and calls for a peaceful and popular democratic transformation. It proposes an end to the one-party state, led by al-Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP).
The signatories include representatives from the rebel Sudanese Revolutionary Forces, National Consensus Forces, the National Umma Party, and the Alliance of Sudanese Civil Society Organisations. (Additional information from The Guardian)

Burundi - transition conflict
Burundi will hold elections mid this year against the backdrop of growing insecurity. Foremost is the risking of the incumbent president Pierre Nkurunziza, amending the constitution to secure a third term. However, this has the potential of taking back the country to civil war.

In the run-up to the 2015 elections, Burundi teeters on the brink. On April 8, the situation in the country was discussed by the UN Security Council.
The road to the 2015 elections is mined with growing political tensions and claims of continued restrictions on press and civil liberties; limitations on the freedoms of expression, of association and of peaceful assembly of members, of opposition political parties; and for media and civil society organisations.

Moreover, youth groups are increasingly involved in acts of intimidation, harassment and violence and acts of incitement to hatred, which threaten the constitution and the spirit of the Arusha Agreement.
Preventive measures by the region are needed to ensure that peace and security in Burundi are safeguarded in 2015.

Prof Peter Kagwanja is the chief executive of the Africa Policy Institute

Somalia: Warlords and terror
Clan warlords and terrorists will continue to hold sway in Somalia, threatening peace and security within the country and in neighbouring countries.

The Somali Federal Government, which came to power in 2012, is expected to pave the way for a constitutional referendum and democratic elections in 2016.

But the government is shaky, and still struggling to govern. Fierce supremacy battles between the president and prime minister escalated into a nasty falling out in late 2014, resulting in the ouster of the premier.

State-formation is still a dream too far. Breakaway states such as Somaliland, Puntland and Jubaland are seeking more autonomy and challenging the government in Mogadishu. The latest discovery of oil and gas on the border between Somaliland and Puntland has heightened tensions.

Thankfully, the government now controls more territory than at any other time since the early 1990s. In the past four years, Somalia’s new army and the African Union forces (Amisom) have made impressive gains against al-Shabaab.

But the government is still beholden to armed clans. It is feared that the power intrigues of clan warlords could turn the referendum and national democratic elections — as part of the federal state-formation project — into a zero-sum game of clan dominance, potentially throwing Somalia into further conflict.

In September, a US drone strike killed al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane, but the militia retains the capacity to strike any target within Somalia and in Kenya where it claims to be fighting on behalf of the Muslim minority.

Somalia’s neighbours — Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Uganda — currently involved in the hard-power efforts to root out al-Shabaab, should embark on a parallel soft-power intervention to support the stabilisation process through a referendum and election.

Pundits are rightly suggesting that state-building and democratic consolidation in Somalia be re-engineered to replace the current top-down approach with a bottom-up one.

Establishing local grassroots institutions such as district councils and municipalities and holding local elections first takes precedence over national polls.

South Sudan crisis
Ideally, South Sudan is expected to hold its first general election since Independence by July 9. However, the eruption of a security crisis in late 2013 has thrown everything into doubt.

A festering power rivalry between factions allied to president Salva Kiir and his former deputy, Dr Riek Machar, exploded into a full-blown ethnic conflict on December 15, 2013.

By November 2014, the ensuring civil war had killed between 50,000 and 100,000 people and left two million displaced from their homes as refugees and internally displaced persons.

On May 9, 2014, Kiir and Machar signed a ceasefire in Addis Ababa mediated by the regional body, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad). In June, they agreed to begin talks on the formation of a transitional government. But the ceasefire has been violated and the unity talk stalled. The simmering civil war involves military garrisons split along ethnic lines.

The war has sucked in the neighbours. Ugandan troops are fighting alongside government forces. Khartoum has reportedly armed both the government and rebels.
Ethiopia and Kenya are desperate to restore peace and save the multi-billion-dollar Lamu Port-South-Sudan-Ethiopia (Lapsset) corridor from unnecessary delay or possible collapse.

Jointly launched in March 2012 by Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia, the Lapsset corridor involves the construction of a standard gauge railway connecting the new port of Lamu with South Sudan and Ethiopia, and eventually Uganda and Rwanda.

In 2015, Juba’s neighbours need to broker sustainable peace and pull the country back from the brink.