Why NRM, FDC lost in Bugiri

BUGIRI. Mr Asuman Basalirwa, the Justice Forum (Jeema) president, was last Saturday elected Bugiri Municipality Member of Parliament.
While declaring Mr Basalirwa winner, the Bugiri District returning officer, Ms Christine Kunihira, announced that he got 3,928 votes, defeating National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate John Francis Oketcho who polled 3,267 votes.
The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate, Ms Eunice Namatende, came third with 928 votes, while Mr Joel Wamono, an independent, got 15 votes. Mr Samanya Lyavala, an NRM-leaning independent, who stepped down and defected to Mr Basalirwa’s camp, got eight votes.
While addressing journalists immediately after being pronounced winner, Mr Basalirwa said his victory was not easy, attributing his success to God and promised good service delivery to the people of Bugiri. He said he had to come up with a good game plan because he was contesting against two formidable political foes.
The Bugiri Municipality election was Basalirwa’s fourth shot at Parliament, with the three losses coming in Bukooli North constituency.
The first loss came in a 2008 by-election when he lost to NRM’s Stephen Baka Mugabi, who he also lost to in 2011. In 2016, he lost to Gaster Kyawa (NRM).
During campaigns, friends and foes described him as ‘not being a local leader’ – one who despite standing three times and losing, would never return to the few voters to express his gratitude.
“Basalirwa only shines at the national scene but invisible on the local scene,” Mr Yakubu Byakika, a businessman, said.
Despite such an appraisal, how did Mr Basalirwa manage to defeat an NRM candidate who had built a base among the youth, three years prior to the election and FDC, the largest Opposition party in the country?
Divided Opposition
From the onset, voters were left wondering why two Opposition camps decided to each field a candidate.
While FDC fielded Ms Namatende, Jeema fielded Mr Basalirwa. In the run up to the election, some voters perceived FDC as being a ‘greedy’ party and their argument is entirely hinged on its reluctance to ask their flag bearer to step down for Mr Basalirwa. Talks to have either candidate step down for the other bore no results. To some residents, NRM Secretary General Justine Kasule Lumumba greatly contributed to the loss of the NRM candidate.
According to proponents of this factor, the first day Ms Lumumba stormed the municipality to campaign for the NRM candidate, an Opposition life was lost.
Mr Asuman Walyendo, a boda boda rider in Bugiri Municipality, was on July 19, fatally shot as police battled a group of Mr Basalirwa’s supporters who wanted to hold a rally at the Busoga University playgrounds.
“Ever since this young innocent life was lost, voters vowed to discontinue their obsession with any candidate fronted by Ms Lumumba,” Mr Stephen Barasa, a teacher and resident of the municipality, said last week.
Indeed, during his final campaign rally at Bugiri Bus Park on July 25, Mr Basalirwa urged his supporters to vote so that the deceased’s death is not in vain.

Lyavala factor
Mr Lyavala, the former Bugiri District chairperson, who stood in the NRM primaries and lost to Mr Oketcho, blamed his defeat ‘internal wrangles’ within the ruling party, citing the perceived public animosity between NRM electoral commission chairperson, Dr Tanga Odoi, and Ms Lumumba.
His decision to pull out of the race in favour of Mr Basalirwa significantly turned the political tide in the municipality.
“I also wanted this seat but discovered that Bugiri was bigger than me. I then looked among all contestants and discovered that Basalirwa was the right man,” Mr Lyavala said during Mr Basalirwa’s last campaign rally.
During this campaign, the sectarian sentiments came to the fore in some instances to discredit Mr Oketcho who they claimed hails from Tororo District.
“The tribal card is playing against this man (Oketcho). While it is difficult for another tribe to win an election in Tororo, why would Oketcho, a Japadhola, win in Busoga?” a man, who preferred anonymity, said.
“Historically, though there are many Samias in Bugiri, this is not their cradleland. Basoga have realised the need to have a Musoga rule them. They are trying to get over the Fred Mukisa (former State minister for Fisheries) and Agnes Taaka Wejuli (Woman MP, Bugiri) who are both Samia,” he added.
President Museveni, during Mr Oketcho’s final campaign rally at Bukooli Technical School, vowed to investigate reports that Opposition candidates in the Bugiri Municipality were playing the sectarian card.
“As President, if I get incriminating evidence that they (Opposition) were being sectarian, they will be charged in court,” Mr Museveni said.
Religion also played a role in Mr Basalirwa’s election. The district has a significant number of Muslims and he was the only Muslim candidate.
Ms Namatende, too, fell victim to sectarian tendencies as gender mainstreaming voters saw her through different lenses. Some voters saw the municipality seat as a ‘men thing’, wondering what Ms Namatende was doing in a ‘male election’.
“She is used to standing for Woman MP and that is what we have prepared her for in 2021, she should have waited because this election is not timely for her,” Mr Kenneth Oundo, a Fine Artist said.
Mr Basalirwa has sought a seat in the municipality before and lost on all occasions. Voters in Bombo, on the outskirts of Bugiri Municipality, said they did not want to see him lose for the fifth time, the reason they voted for him.

Bobi Wine
Mr Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, also known as Bobi Wine, had immense contribution to the Jeema president victory. Mr Basalirwa was unequivocal during his last campaign rally at Bugiri Bus Park on July 25, where he recognised his effort. Bobi Wine is also Kyadondo East MP.
“Let me not forget to thank my brother Bobi Wine for standing with me from the beginning of this campaign despite being attacked by FDC supporters for ‘abandoning’ them. There are those who openly bashed me because of this man (Bobi Wine), claiming I would not attract these crowds without him,” he said.