Greening country will bring economic transformation

A lot of water has flowed under the bridge in regard to the need for rapid economic growth and wealth creation in Uganda. One fundamental premise is that the country is largely still agrarian with 80 per cent of the households involved in agriculture. Ironically, the sector contributes a paltry 24.5 per cent of GDP, currently estimated at $28b. It is this contradiction that explains the current anomalous relationship between growth and poverty trends.
While it is true that the Ugandan economy has been growing at the macro level from 10.4 per cent in 2008; 8.1 per cent in 2009; 6.8 per cent in 2011, and 4.5 per cent in 2016 and 4.8 per cent in 2018, this growth has not been adequately felt by the majority of the people at the micro (household) level. The reason is that the sector that should have catapulted the entire population is not the one that is causing the growth. The sector that is contributing most to Uganda’s GDP growth is the service sector - mainly telecommunication and banking that contribute 54 per cent of GDP. This would have been positive because it is a similar situation in countries such as US and UK.
But the question is, how many people are employed in the service sector as compared to the agricultural sector? The answer is less than 1 per cent! The sector that should have been the most economically democratic to transform the Ugandan economy and become the game changer “is obviously” the agricultural sector focusing on value chain development particularly through agro-industry and agri-business. But this is not the case in Uganda because as explained above, 80 per cent of Ugandans are engaged in the agricultural sector and, therefore, this sector needs transformation.
This explains, the paradox of economic growth, but without transformation, which is characterised by growth amidst poverty. Poverty levels as established by Ubos have increased from 19.7 per cent in 2015 to 21 per cent in 2018. Furthermore, the 2014 Population and Housing Census established that 69 per cent of the Ugandan population thrives on subsistence agriculture. The people rely on agriculture, which is “hand-to-month”, implying that such agricultural activities neither contribute to growth nor revenue generation to either government or individual farmers. This is the irony that has caused the far long stagnation in the agricultural sector.
One other fundamental impediment that has hindered the transformation of agricultural sector in Uganda is what we call supply side constraints. These comprise sporadic drought, which has been exacerbated by indiscriminate tree harvesting without responsibility of replacing the trees that have been unscrupulously cut. It is estimated that Uganda loses 100,000 hectares of biomass annually.
This is worsened by indiscriminate reclaiming of wetlands and encroachment of other valued environmental resources such as marginal areas, mountain slopes, all of which have combined to cause landslides and drought. The recent experience of drought in eastern Uganda districts of Tororo, Katakwi and Soroti is a testimony of poor management of natural resources and the predicament characterised by prolonged drought. Similarly, experiences in Bududa and Kabale districts where many people lost their lives due to land slides are still fresh in our minds. The rationale for greening the country; as the Chinese adage reiterates, the natural resources we are enjoying have not been bequest to us by our fathers, but have been borrowed from our great grand children. It is against this background that Rotary - a movement of 1.2 million people in the world with a particular focus on District 9211 (Uganda and Tanzania), has rigorously embanked on planting trees across the country.
The Mission Green, is as it has been named, by District Governor – Ken Mugisha - a signature project for District 9211. Under this initiative, Rotary Club of Muyenga and I, have planted 150,000 trees from September 2017 to June 2018. Why focus on trees? The trees act as kidneys for purification of the atmospheric air and detoxification of emissions from greenhouse gases.
The aim has been to plant trees for environmental conservation and also for food security as well as urban beautification. The trees provide rainfall catchments and will go a long way in restoring environmental resource flows hence supporting the agricultural sector from the supply side, consistent with Agenda 21 of the RIO Summit and SDG 13.
Climate variability has been a major driver of headline inflation in Uganda hence its mitigation will greatly result in rebounding of economic activity, increased production and low prices of food products.
Deforestation and bush burning in various parts of Uganda: In planting these trees, we have partnered with Uganda Prisons Service, Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Kampala Capital City Authority, Ministry of Water and Environment, National Forestry Authority, Ministry of Education and Sports (schools), religious institutions, local governments, particularly, Mpigi District local government.
Need for structural transformation in the agricultural sector: As reiterated in the fore-going, there is need for greening the Ugandan economy, which will greatly benefit agricultural transformation, hence significantly contributing to Uganda’s strides to achieve the middle income status.
The Vietnam economy has invested in irrigation infrastructure and greening of their economy and the results have been phenomenal. The country currently produces 20 million bags of coffee. Similarly, Ethiopia has invested in irrigation infrastructure and the agricultural sector has reaped phenomenal results. It is hoped that the proposed investment in irrigation infrastructure as proposed by government in the 2018/19 Budget will close the gap in production infrastructure and address the supply side constraints particularly drought effects on agricultural production.

Prof Nuwagaba is an international consultant on Economic Transformation in the African Region. [email protected]