2017: Lone wolves gone astray will complicate war on terror

Europe began 2017 with the continuation of very horrifying news of what has been a dominant story in 2016. A suspected terror attack in a Turkish night club, allegedly by a lone gun man, left about 39 people dead with dozens of others injured and traumatised. Prior to this, a fortnight ago, there was an attack at Breitscheidplatz, Berlin, Germany. Twelve people were killed and 48 injured at a Christmas market when a tractor trailer rammed into a crowd. It was carried out by what they call a lone wolf – a terrorist acting single-handedly.
2016 witnessed attacks in the US, Belgium, and France, Turkey and many other parts of the world. German Chancellor Angel Merkel decried ‘Islamist terror’ as Germany’s number one threat. The trouble is that leaders around the world react in the same way. They put on a brave face, dismiss acts of terror as the option of misguided souls and cowards envious of the progressive Western (Christian) culture and civilisation. They vow to overcome at the end of the day and promise to tighten security.

There are various schools of thought as regards the origin of Islamist terror. One of the most popular arguments is that Islamist terror as we know it finds its origin in the occupation of Palestinian territory by Jewish people who settled there to form the State of Israel in 1948. There was a feeling that this occupation was an affront on Palestinians and an attempt to humiliate them and disparage their faith, Islam. The challenge they met in this fight is the West which backed the formation of Israel protects and defends the State in every way possible.

So over the years they have rallied around Islam to stage a fight back, first directly against the Jews then against their backers mainly the Western powers plus the side kicks in places like Africa which are allied to these powers. They have neither the money nor the might. So they resort to hitting weak targets across the globe. The world seems to be working in a vicious cycle as far as terror and the war on it is concerned. When the terrorists strike, there is retaliation in the form of missile and drone attacks in places like Afghanistan, in Palestine, Pakistan, Iraq, Somalia and other places where suspected terror cells exist. The terrorists then respond in the way they know and can afford; by staging headline grabbing acts of terror like the ones in Germany and Turkey.

The greatest challenge that the world fighting terror now faces is that terrorism is nothing similar to conventional warfare. Tight security, intelligence and information sharing has made it virtually impossible to have the old style terror cells that trained terrorists. The terrorists are organising by becoming ‘less organised’ -without reorganised structures in the conventional sense. We now have the phenomenon of the ‘lone wolf;’ a terrorist acting alone. With the growth of Internet and communication technology, many can now be indoctrinated and recruited online through social media platforms.
Images and news stories, regarding the need to defend the faith from the offense of ‘infidels’ is easily accessible on the Internet.
It comes with convincing vitriolic preaching by clerics with a violent interpretation of the Koran. Their teachings promise great things in heaven and honour for those who die defending the faith.

The other very worrying aspect is that most times the lone wolf is not bothered about his own life. His is a death wish. He is on a journey without a plan to return. He is therefore careless and reckless. The dilemma is that the lone wolf has no mark to indicate he is a lone wolf. (You may have to randomly rely on racial profiling which may annoy and recruit more lone wolves.) Many of those who have taken part in these strikes are just people next door who lived normally, though a few were on security watch lists. Their weapons include trucks and many other items used in day to day aspects of life that no one would suspect may cause a security threat. Now if you have young Moslems in many troubled parts of war torn, Somalia, Iraq, Libya, Afganistan, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Pakistan etc. witnessing bloodshed almost daily you have a problem on your hands. They see dead bodies and victims of missile and drone strikes -also known as collateral damage. They lose loved ones in this confrontation pitting the West against Islamic terrorists. They see no future. To them there is an invisible line between life and death. It is very easy to convince them to get involved in terror attacks.

That is where the world finds itself. I believe 2017 will be a year where the lone wolf will go wild and astray. He will make the world’s leaders, security and intelligence community take a step back and re-think the war on terror for in its current form, is does not seem to be very effective.
That aside, I thank all our readers for their loyalty and wish them a Happy, healthy and prosperous New Year. God Bless you.
Nicholas Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues. [email protected] Twitter: @nsengoba