On politics of the use of Nile waters

Two original members of the Organisation of African Unity, now African Union (AU), are currently locked in an acrimonious, protracted and open war of words over the use of the waters of River Nile, which is 5,611km long.

The countries which are currently at loggerheads, Egypt and Ethiopia, are important members of the AU and UN who share a lot in common and have enjoyed cordial diplomatic relations for more than a century. But the dispute over the Nile waters threatens to undo all this. In this regard, I appreciate the mediation efforts of USA.

As a member of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), AU and Igad, Uganda should take keen interest in the ongoing feud between Egypt and Ethiopia because it threatens regional peace and security.

The row between the two African countries reminds me of fears which were expressed in the 20th Century by many authors, political leaders and NASA that World War III would be fought over scarcity of water if lasting solutions to water problems are not urgently found. The worst case scenario envisaged in the 1960s and 1970s has fortunately not materialised, but the potential for armed conflict over water remains real.

Background to the dispute
The dispute over the use of the Nile waters has a long history which goes as far back as 1929 when the first Nile Waters Agreement was signed between Egypt, Britain (which allegedly represented the interests of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania which then were British colonies) and Sudan. To argue that the 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters Agreements were unfair, unjust and unreasonable treaties for Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania is, in my opinion, an understatement.

Under the bilateral 1959 Nile Waters Agreement between Egypt and Sudan, Egypt was given a right to 55.5 billion cubic metres of Nile waters per year, while Sudan got 18.5 cubic metres. Unlike Uganda, which initially condoned this laughable and ridiculous treaty, Ethiopia, especially during the revolutionary military regime of Col Mengistu Haile Mariam, repudiated the agreement and demanded a new Nile Waters Agreement.

Uganda belatedly joined hands with Ethiopia and other Nile Basin countries to establish the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999. The primary objective of NBI was to negotiate a new and binding Nile Waters Agreement acceptable to the nine Nile Basin countries, namely, Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda.

Much has been achieved by NBI, but Egypt and Sudan have so far refused to sign the new treaty which replaces the 1929 and 1959 agreements.
In an interview, Ambassador Meles Alem Tekea of Ethiopia to Kenya, published in The EastAfrican newspaper of March 21, he accuses Egypt of a colonial mentality. He argued as follows:

“Our belief is that through genuine negotiations, we can reach a win-win solution. The most important approach, therefore, is to invest and have frank discussions on the most critical issues by focusing on first filling and annual operation of Grand Renaissance Dam.
“What is complicating matters is the obstinate stance from Egypt to perpetuate colonial era privileges that Ethiopia and the rest of the water source countries rejected.

Egypt wants to continue as the sole and self-proclaimed owner of the waters of the Nile by attempting to maintain a water volume of 55.5 billion cubic metres of water annually. This zeroes the water share of all upstream countries of the Nile, be it Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, DR Congo or Uganda. This is not acceptable. Hence, cooperation is the only way out and is in the best interests of all the countries.”

The way forward
In accordance with norms and principles governing shared natural resources, such as, lakes Victoria and Albert, and River Nile, Ethiopia and Uganda which are the principal sources of Nile waters have obligations to cooperate and negotiate terms for sharing the waters of River Nile which are acceptable to end users like Egypt and Sudan.

I hardly need to remind Egypt and Sudan that the two countries should, in return, make reasonable and realistic demands and not behave as if Ethiopia and Uganda, which are sovereign states, do not have national interests to advance, promote and defend by all means necessary.

Given the necessary political will and in the spirit of African solidarity, I believe it’s possible through diplomacy to find lasting and peaceful solution to the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the use of the waters of River Nile.

Mr Acemah is a political scientist and retired career diplomat.
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