Kenya’s BBI: William Ruto needs to be more calculative; otherwise...

What you need to know:

Promoting BBI. Mr Kinyatta and Mr Odinga are the two biggest political names in Kenya. If united, it would be an uphill task to challenge them with politics or even the ideals of democracy.

On Saturday, March 9, 2013, I made a Facebook post reading: ‘The thing is William ‘Norman, the Conqueror Ruto…, not Uhuru Kinyatta. Next? ‘The Fallout’. This was more than 30 days before Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto were sworn in as president and deputy president of Kenya respectively on Tuesday, April 9, 2013).
As I write this, my prophecy has been manifest. But this story should be told with some candour.

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In 2006, I shared an office with a Kenyan woman (a proud Mkamba) in one of Kampala’s corporate spaces. The woman was smart, and very uncharacteristic of East Africans. She spoke French with very undetectable traces of Anglophile intonation and accent. But she still pronounced the word ‘Raila’ in a typical Nairobi Street way: not English, not French.
In one midmorning office chit-chat in which we discussed Kenyan politics, she swore on anything dead or alive: Raila ne sera jamais president du Kenya (Raila will never be president of Kenya).
The truth though is that Raila Odinga has won two elections since 2006 and remains the most influential Kenyan politician after the president. Yet in spite of the two electoral victories I have assigned him, my Mkamba friend’s statement still stands: Raila has not (yet) been president of Kenya.
In Kenya, communities vote in blocks. And since departure of president Daniel arap Moi in 2002, a presidential candidate enjoying the support of the Mount Kenya communities carries high chances of victory.
With his current proximal relation to President Kenyatta (and by consequence the Mount Kenya Communities block?), Mr Odinga may have the best shot at the Kenyan presidency in 2022. Mr Ruto knows that elections have failed to resolve Kenya’s political leadership question. The debacle of the 2002 and 2017 elections is testimony enough. One doesn’t even want to countenance where Kenya would be without the courage and political rectitude exercised by President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga to do the famous ‘handshake’.
Kenyan politics still need some kind of ‘consensual arrangement’ where all people feel included in their national narrative as an element of the social justice. Yani there are people who feel they have been sinned against (from 1963 to date). Mr Ruto still has age on his side. Even if Mr Odinga ruled Kenya for 10 years, Mr Ruto would still be young enough to have actionable ambition. Mr Ruto should ask President Kenyatta to cut a deal that would treat the president and deputy president as one thing. If Mr Uhuru becomes prime minister (as it is being rumoured) in 2022, Mr Ruto should be deputy prime minister. Don’t laugh…
On a serious note, assuming that Mr Odinga becomes president in 2022 (don’t mind my Mukamba friend’s remarks), an Opposition led by Mr Ruto would be very alluring to Kenyan voters in 2027. So, Mr Ruto should just break camp with Jubilee and form another of those typically Kenyan SPPV (Special purpose political vehicle) to run for president in 2022 (with better chances of victory in 2027).
Mr Kinyatta and Mr Odinga are the two biggest political names in Kenya. If united, it would be an uphill task to challenge them with politics or even the ideals of democracy. In addition to their ‘name strength’, they are promoting BBI (Building Bridges Initiatives) as a minimum national consensus for Kenya.
Incidentally, when all the chips fall in place, it is not the ideals of democracy but the organic community sense of belonging and social justice that drives national politics and leadership. Mr Ruto should act in a manner that does not betray him as a man fighting Kenya’s traditional political establishment.