Why the inbred calves of the NRM give hope

Out of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) came the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). Out of FDC came the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT).
All the leading figures around whom these parties or organisations are built were part of the 1981-86 Bush War in the tall grass of Luweero that brought President Museveni to power.

FDCs Kizza Besigye was Museveni’s personal doctor (the story changed when they later fell out in 1999.) ANTs Gen Mugisha Muntu was a long-serving Army Commander of the national army before he retired and joined FDC. In a sense, FDC and ANT are chips of the old block. Their formation is based on people who walked out of the NRM.
In the media, their activities (even for ANT, which is less than a month old), are viewed as having greater gravitas than the old pre-1986 political parties such as the Democratic Party (DP) Conservative Party (CP) and Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC).

Even when former secretary general of the NRM John Patrick Amama Mbabazi broke away from the NRM and contested for the presidency under the Go Forward movement, the pre-1986 parties, especially DP, though older and more tested nationwide on the political scene, joined him not as equal partners, but as political brides maids.

To date, as far as presidential elections are concerned DP, UPC and CP have apparently accepted that they can only be viably led by mainly the offshoots of the NRM. In fact, apart from 1996 when DP’s Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere stood, percentage wise, none of the parties has attained double digits in the presidential elections. Whether the new kid on the block, Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, changes that come 2021 ie pre-1986 parties following someone other than an NRM offshoot is yet to be seen.

Those from parties that have broken away from NRM and become viable confirm one very important fact about politics; you are as strong as your base. The base of Uganda’s politics despite all the pretensions and cosmetics is ethnic. The ethnic composition of the NRM has always been a sticking point and it has had to explain itself as to why people from the western region tend to get most of the fat jobs and responsibilities in most sectors.
It is all about building and strengthening the political base. When people from the same ethnic group or region are rewarded by the ruling class with economic resources, it serves mainly the rulers.

The home boy will ensure that brothers, sisters and cousins get the available opportunities and these will educate and facilitate many back home to justifiably become competitive and thus more opportunities and financial reward. The friends and hangers on like a Muganda brother of mine, Mukisa, who now calls himself Mugisha, will be nice to this group and support it because that is where the bread is buttered. He thus helps the group to become stronger. Those who oppose starve and go to hell.
Now when you have many people in a region with good jobs and opportunities spread all over the country, you may call on them for two things. First their loyalty will be with you because your hold onto power is their insurance to enjoy their opportunities.

So a police officer in a far-flung area such as Kaberamaido District, will by default stop an Opposition political leader from accessing a radio station because he thinks it hurts the status quo in which he is thriving though he may not necessarily be qualified save for his homeboy connection. Secondly, they may use the resources they acquired to directly fund your politics or buy patronage by financially helping your potential supporters with jobs, contract, school fees, wedding and burial expenses.

Now when there is a disagreement like the one that occurred between Museveni and Besigye on the direction NRM was taking in 1999, Besigye was assured of walking away from the NRM with people who had acquired reasonable resources bequeathed to them by the NRMs ‘enabling environment.’ In fact, they did not even need to move out. They had the option of staying put and acting like Nicodemus in the Bible; eating with the Pharisees by day while hanging out with Jesus at night.
The same applies to ANT and Muntu. From his performance in FDC where many looked at him as friendly Opposition to NRM, it can be argued that he gets similar support as FDC only that his may go even further. The ruling NRM may allow him to thrive because he is not as defiant and militant as FDC.

Above all, it is calculated that as ‘friendly Opposition,’ he will most probably eat into FDC, but will not constitute a serious threat to NRM. The near embarrassing support the Uganda Police granted to the lavish inauguration ceremonies of ANT compared to the treatment meted out to other political actors sends that message.
Politics is about perceptions. When people see the sort of resources parties like FDC and ANT are able to put up for their activities compared to DP, UPC and CP, they follow them and make them stronger. The newer formations like PPP, PDP and SDP together with the pre-1986 parties can only talk the walk and piggy back plus hope for the best because their base has all but collapsed.

The economic power to fall back on ie the agrarian economy, cooperatives, and other related businesses, especially in the central region and northern Uganda, have all but withered out in the last three decades. The foreign investor, supported and facilitated by the ruling NRM, replaced them.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues. [email protected]. Twitter:@nsengoba