Will Artificial Intelligence take over human jobs?

Twitter chief executive officer, Elon Musk last month expressed worry about artificial intelligence as a technology that could replace human workers with machines. 
In an open letter signed off by Musk, and other tech visionaries, they argue that contemporary artificial intelligence machines are now becoming human-competitive at general tasks.
In the letter, Musk presents a number of questions, in which he asks, “Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones?  Should we develop non-human minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilisation?”

The argument presented is that powerful artificial intelligence systems should be developed only once, the [world] is confident that their effects will be positive and their risks will be manageable.  
Musk’s letter is premised on the new ChatGPT, a popular artificial intelligence online chatbot that interacts with humans in a conversational way.

ChatGPT has become a darling to many professionals across different industries for its razor sharp and quick responses to a variety of expert questions.

Unlike search engines such as Google which aggregates information from different websites, ChatGPT, instead uses a dialogue format.
It makes it possible to answer follow-up questions, admit its mistakes, challenge incorrect premises, and reject inappropriate requests.
ChatGPT is a text based and natural language processing AI tool that was created in November last year by Carlifonia based startup, OpenAI, in the United States of America.

The OpenAI company is investing in artificial intelligence or simply put as AI, a system that can solve human-level problems using a technology called deep learning.

This leverages on large amounts of data to train an AI system or machine to perform a human task.  
The company recently released another model, the GPT-4, a creative tool that can generate, edit, and interact with users on creative and technical writing tasks, such as composing songs, writing screenplays, or learning a user’s writing style.   

According to the Open AI company, artificial intelligence can be used in many cases such as personalising the user experience of a smartphone by analysing the user’s behaviour and preferences.
For example, the technology can learn the user’s habits, such as when they wake up, what phone applications they use the most, and what types of content they prefer.

Based on this information, AI can make personalised recommendations, such as suggesting new apps or articles that the user might be interested in.
The technology can also power voice assistants such as Google Assistant, allowing users to interact with their smartphone using natural language.

Voice assistants can help users with a variety of tasks, such as setting reminders, sending messages, and making phone calls.
A common example in smartphones is using the technology to power predictive text, which allows users to type faster and more accurately suggesting words or phrases that the user is likely to use next.

AI and future of work
Current research in AI Labs across the United States of America, and other developed countries shows that scientists are thinking of making a leap to true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that is equal to or even exceeds human intelligence.   Artificial intelligence automates processes, and many repetitive tasks can be done quickly freeing up time for higher level, strategic work.  

Tevin Rwamahe, a business analyst at Innovation Village, argues that there are many AI use cases across business functions that will create an early impact and evolve quickly.

He suggests that business owners are encouraged to identify the parts of their business where this technology could have the most impact, and generate task lists for efficient execution of a given activity.  

Rwamahe quotes a 2021 Global survey on the state of artificial intelligence by Mckinsey Company which shows the technology is now being applied across major industries.

 Such industries include; health care organisations that are using AI to develop sophisticated machines that can detect diseases, and analyse chronic conditions using medical data to ensure early diagnosis.

Financial institutions are also using AI to detect changes in transaction patterns and detecting fraud which humans can easily miss, preventing loss to businesses. People are also able to automate tasks in their homes through smart appliances.  

He notes that AI can be leveraged for business cases such as creating or improving customer support chatbots to resolve questions about products, automate email responses, or even identifying production errors, anomalies, and defects.  

Isaac Odong, a business development and marketing at Service Cops, argues that there are many AI tools that are being developed to do several tasks such as sales and marketing automation tools for prospective clients.
“Artificial intelligence tools get you the right customers you want, and their behavioural patterns, develops sales scripts and can send emails,” Odong says.

However, Odong says such AI tools have brought forth questions such as, “If I can do this, do I need to employ someone to do it?”  
He advises companies to invest in developing artificial intelligence tools that address the needs of the company, but most importantly, cut on tasks and greatly improve on profitability.
Currently, the Open AI company provides open source code for developers to tap into, and develop tools that speak to their industry needs.

A number of AI tools currently exist online. These can automate work processes ranging from creating Ads, reports and proposals, basic accounting, graphics design, writing, content creating to manufacturing processes, with the list being endless.

The minimum cost is $50 (Shs186,058 ) monthly subscription fee for online AI tools, while other tools can be used on free trial.

Threats and opportunities
Whereas artificial intelligence has immense benefits, some experts argue that the technology poses a huge risk to mankind, if not well-managed.

From Elon Musk’s revelations to Geoffrey Hinton, a pioneer of artificial intelligence (AI), who last week resigned from Google to speak out against what he called the “dangers” of the technology he helped develop.  
Hinton worked part-time on Google’s AI development projects for a decade, but he has since expressed misgivings about the technology and his involvement in its advancement.

It is argued that AI powered services can automate most of the tasks performed such as data analysis causing job displacement.  
On the flipside, while Artificial Intelligence brings the need for new skills and expertise which firms might not have, integrating the technology into workflows with existing infrastructure might prove difficult.

It is predicted that by 2025, 97 million new roles will emerge from artificial intelligence that are more adapted to the new division of labour, according to the 2020 Future of Jobs Report by the World Economic Forum.
The report shows that employers expect that by 2025, emerging professions will grow from 7.8 percent to 13.5 percent.
For now, there will be decreasing demand for jobs such as: data entry clerks, administrative secretaries, accountants, bookkeepers, auditors, financial analysts, customer service workers, operations managers, payroll clerks, stock-keeping clerks, bank tellers, and executive secretaries.  

New and emerging jobs in the AI space include: data analysts, AI specialists, machine learning specialists, digital marketing specialists, project managers, software developers, application developers, business development professionals, strategic advisors, management analysts, organisation analysts and digital transformation specialists.

Regulation and IP
Other emerging issues will rotate on regulation and intellectual property rights.
Patrick Mugisha, an innovation expert and founder of Innovent Labs Africa says, should AI machines evolve to attain consciousness and attain ability to make choices and discernment, there might be a need to revise the IP legal framework such as the Industrial Property Act to allow software and computer programmes to be patentable.

“The question is to whether AI can be assigned rights pertaining to a particular design of which the current law does not provide for such a scenario,” Mugisha says, noting that AI relies on large data sets of already existing logos and designs, which calls for protection in case of AI generated works that infringe on protected designs.

Elon Musk, and other tech visionaries in their open letter, suggest that AI developers must work with policymakers to dramatically accelerate development of robust AI governance systems.
These should at a minimum include: new and capable regulatory authorities dedicated to AI; oversight and tracking of highly capable AI systems and watermarking systems to help distinguish real from synthetic and to track model leaks.

A robust auditing and certification ecosystem will be required, liability for AI-caused harm; and robust public funding for technical AI safety research.
It is also suggested that having well-resourced institutions for coping with the dramatic economic and political disruptions (especially to democracy) that AI will cause should come in handy.