2026 elections to cost Shs1.3 trillion

Uganda’s next general election slated for 2026 is projected to cost Shs1.3 trillion, this newspaper can reveal. 

This will be 60 percent higher than the Shs868 billion spent on the last ballot in 2021, and a three-fold rise from expenditure on polls a decade earlier. 

A part explanation by insiders is that the number of voters is projected to rise by 2026 to 24 million, up from the 18.1 million in 2021, while polling stations will increase by more than 8,000.

Electoral Commission (EC) officials, who asked not to be named to speak freely ahead of the formal unveiling of the blueprint today, attributed the substantial rise in the cost to plans to enrol prisoners and Ugandans in the Diaspora to vote.

These two are among a raft of electoral reform proposals renewed every election cycle by the Opposition, all of which will have to be preceded by substantive amendments to the Constitution and election laws.

Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Norbert Mao, during his homecoming fete in Gulu last month, revealed that he would table Constitutional amendments in Parliament within three months.

He did not provide details of the intended changes, rendering it difficult to know if the proposals would include suggestions in the Citizens’ Compact prepared by civil society and Opposition parties where Mr Mao, as leader of the Democratic Party, is a member. 

Mr Mathias Mpuuga, the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament (LoP), last night said “any electoral roadmap released regardless of cost, without meaningful constitutional and electoral reforms, is the other meaning of fraud.”

“Elections organised as a ritual are an insult to our intelligence and an affront to the common democratic demands of the population,” he said, stopping short of declaring whether they would participate in the next vote.

Sources said the EC’s plan to enrol prisoners and Diaspora, alongside expected significant rises in numbers of voters, polling stations and constituencies alongside associated deployment of advanced technology will be the main cost drivers for the next ballot.

The electoral body expects that Parliament, which under the supreme law is the only body empowered to alter boundaries, will create nine new cities/districts or those it has already approved will come into force.

The country is expected to have eight new city divisions, 37 constituencies, 1,000 sub-counties, 9,000 additional parishes and 3,310 parishes and 9,500 villages by 2026.

This means there will be 14,000 parishes and 80,000 villages in total.
Mr Ibrahim Ssemujju, the spokesperson of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party that has been a lynchpin in championing electoral reform demands, said burgeoning elective positions needlessly haemorrhage public resources.

“This country is too wasteful. We should not be exceeding Shs100 billion in [expenditure on] elections because all those elective positions need manpower to conduct polls in the areas and materials,” he said. 

Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja was on August 2 due to officially unveil the EC 2026 election roadmap, which insiders said will be executed under a project-type format, phasing out expenditure from this financial year and over the next two so that the country is not pressured on electoral expenditure.

According to the blueprint this publication has seen, presidential, parliamentary and local government election combined will cost Shs1.2 trillion, compared to the Shs720.1 billion spent on the three polls two years ago. 

The ballot for leaders of youth, People Living with Disabilities (PWDs) and Older Persons Councils and Committees, ranked as category two elections, will cost Shs146.8 billion, up from Shs92.23 spent in the last cycle.

The new plan does not cover elections for Local Council I and II, both of which are leaving on borrowed life after the government used administrative methods to extend their stay in office for six months following the lapse of their tenure on July 10.

Voting for Women Councils/Committees is also pending, with the government saying it has no money to bankroll this or the ballot for lower local governments.

Commenting on the roadmap yesterday, Ms Charity Ahimbisibwe, the executive director of Electoral Law and Governance Institute, said the cost can only be evaluated contingent upon new changes, innovations and ICT platforms.

She proposed that all elections be held on the same day to save runaway expenses on ballot papers, election materials and polls security, as well as other logistics.

According to the blueprint, other cost drivers will include continuous improvements/reforms in the electoral process, integration of ICT, digital and social media platforms and comprehensive civic/voter education, as well as stakeholders’ sensitisation.

The electoral body also ties some of the projected expenditure on planned implementation of the recommendations by the Supreme Court in its decisions on the 2001, 2006, 2016 and 2021 presidential election petitions.

The Commission also expects higher expenditure to implement public health guidelines following changes brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic, ramping up staffing levels and fluctuation in the value of Uganda’s currency.

“So, those are some of the factors that explain the increment [in the election budget],” an official of the electoral body said, asking not to be named.

In a bid to build trust, credibility and accountability of the strategic plan, the EC, according to the document, is developing Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Framework and System through routine data collection, surveys, progress monitoring, management reviews, stakeholder meetings and annual, mid-term and end-term reviews.

The EC has every election come under tighter scrutiny, particularly by the Opposition, which accuses the entity of being either incompetent or complicit in electoral fraud, and the recent spate of snowballing violence in parliamentary and district chairperson by-elections have raised further questions on the Commission’s ability to organise fair and free votes.

Political parties yesterday poked further holes in the new plans and the independence of the EC which they accused of being captured by the Executive.

The spokesperson of the National Unity Platform (NUP) party, Mr Joel Ssenyonyi, said the electoral body will be hard-pressed to hold credible ballots until the power of appointing its commissioners is removed from an incumbent president who doubles as a contender. 

“The problem is not about the individuals who are there, but rather on who puts them there. They don’t have job tenure like judges who can decide against Mr Museveni and remain with their jobs. That’s why you will see them organising sham elections year-in, year-out,” the first-time lawmaker said.

Why the huge cost

According to the blueprint, other cost drivers will include continuous improvements/reforms in the electoral process, integration of ICT, digital and social media platforms and comprehensive civic/voter education, as well as stakeholders’ sensitisation.

The electoral body also ties some of the projected expenditure on planned implementation of the recommendations by the Supreme Court in its decisions on the 2001, 2006, 2016 and 2021 presidential election petitions.

The Commission also expects higher expenditure to implement public health guidelines following changes brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic, ramping up staffing levels and fluctuation in the value of Uganda’s currency.