75% decline in Covid cases after full reopening

The forecast by some scientists that the full reopening of the economy would worsen the Covid-19 situation has failed the reality tests as the country continues to register declining infections.

Our analysis of statistics from the Ministry of Health found that 40 days after the full reopening of the economy, there has been a drastic 75 percent decline in new cases of infections.

From January 10 to February 18, a total of 6,986 new cases were reported by the ministry, a figure less than 27,792 cases reported between December 1 and January 9,before the full reopening started. 

The Covid-19 test positivity rate, an indicator for determining how widespread the infection is, has fallen significantly from 9.6 percent on January 10 to 0.8 percent on February 18.

The forecast coupled with the high number of cases that the Ministry of Health reported in December 2021, underpin the delay to fully reopen sectors like bars and entertainment despite the suffering of artistes.

But the bars were eventually reopened fully on January 24 after schools, as the numbers kept declining amid the plans by the government to revive the economy. 

President Museveni on December 31, 2021, while announcing the full reopening of the economy warned that some restrictions that were lifted would be reinstated if the Covid-19 situation, especially the number of Covid-19 patients with severe disease, overwhelm the health facilities.

The National Planning Authority (NPA) in their January 10 projection said an average of 1,170 cases would be registered per day and a total of 8,193 cases would be reported in the seven days from January 9 to 15. 

But analysis of the Ministry of Health statistics showed that in the said period, only a total of 4,165 cases were reported and an average of 595 cases each day.  

President Museveni has ever cited NPA projection as the basis for easing or maintaining Covid-19 restrictions.
However, Dr Abraham Muwanguzi, who manages the Science Planning Department of NPA, told Daily Monitor yesterday that their projections of the Covid-19 situation have been accurate.

“Read and then critique. The accuracy is there. The graphs show how the predictions worked with actual numbers. It is not a matter of talking,” he said.  

Other scientists, including Dr Samuel Oledo, the president of Uganda Medical Association (UMA), had before the full reopening asked President Museveni to be very cautious about the move. 

“If we are saying we want to reduce the spread of the coronavirus then you cannot reopen bars. How can a drunk person observe SoPs? It doesn’t make sense,” Dr Oledo told Daily Monitor in December 2021.

After the full reopening of bars, Dr Henry Kajumbula, the head of infection control and prevention in the government scientific advisory committee on Covid-19, said it was too early to say there will be no increase in infections, one week after the reopening. 

But Dr Jane Ruth Aceng, the health minister, said in a statement last Friday that the country is in the “downward trends [as] fewer ases are being identified.” “Uganda is fully out of the ‘Third Covid-19 Wave’ as seen in the significant drop in cumulative confirmed cases, marked reduction in positivity rates and deaths,” she said.  

The Minister said it was only Moyo in the West Nile region, Mpigi and Kampala in central sub-region that were in alert phase and serving as hot spots. 

“The key drivers of transmission in these sub-regions hinge mainly on the local socio-economic factors affecting preventive measures; community perception that Covid-19 is no longer serious since the numbers have reduced and the economy is fully opened and being unvaccinated,” she said. 

In an interview yesterday, Prof Moses Joloba, a specialist in infectious diseases at Makerere University College of Health Sciences, said scientists are suggesting that the Omicron variant could have naturally immunised the population.

“There are theories that since Omicron was milder, it went through the whole population and it could have immunised people but it is yet to be proven,” he said. 

Dr Kajumbula of the advisory committee, like Prof Joloba, told this newspaper that the decline could be a result of warm weather and other factors.

“...Also, many infected people are asymptomatic and they may not spread the virus,” he said.

But the dry season was already being experienced around December 30 when the Ministry reported the highest number of Covid-19 infections. 

Prof Joloba said naturally coronavirus comes in waves and so it could be the lowest point of the wave before another resurgence happens. 

“Reopening bars would cause increases in infections but if there are other balancing factors you may find that transmission is counter-balanced. Also most people who go to bars are younger people who are at less risk of Covid-19 and are resistant,” he said. 
Covid-19 deaths

But our analysis found that more Covid-19 deaths happened in the 40 days after the full reopening of the economy than the 40 days before. 

Between January 10 and February 18, a total of 210 Covid-19 deaths were reported, a figure higher than the 108 virus deaths reported  before the reopening. 

But the number of deaths being reported per day has been declining in recent weeks. For instance on February 17 and 18, only one death was being reported as opposed to as high as 13 deaths that were being reported daily around January 10 and 15. 

Minister Aceng said: “There is a minimal drop in the number of severe cases and deaths in the Covid-19 treatment units across the country. For the two weeks (from Jan 23rd-Feb 5th 2022), about 43 percent of those who died were admitted in a severe state while 10 percent were in critical condition.”

“These deaths are majorly attributed to delay or late referral to the treatment units, being unvaccinated (48 percent), and the elderly (those above 60 years),” the minister said. 

Only a total of 87 Covid-19 patients are currently hospitalised. This is lower than the 435 patients who were in hospitals by January 16. 

Hospitals managers have reported that they are now opening their facilities to more patients as space that was being used as Covid-19 treatment unit become empty.