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Uganda will not bow to America
A gay pride gathering. A top US diplomat has warned that the Anti-Homosexuality Act could impact negatively on construction of the Eacop. PHOTO/COURTESY
What you need to know:
- Optimistic. Uganda government says sanctions from the EU and Washington over the Anti- Homosexuality Act will not have adverse political and economic effects
The recent adoption of the Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA) could impact negatively on construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (Eacop), a top official at the US Embassy in Kampala has warned.
“The [AHA] will deter foreign investors, foreign companies, and international tourists,” Mr Anthony Kujawa, the US Embassy Kampala spokesperson, told Saturday Monitor, adding, “The East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline, for instance, relies significantly on foreign investment.”
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The Eacop project will see a 1,443km crude pipeline constructed from the oilfields in western Uganda to the Indian Ocean coast of Tanzania. The pipeline will be heated as the crude oil coming out of the Albertine region is waxy.
In his budget speech on Thursday, Finance minister Matia Kasaija made clear that the “rapid development of oil and gas production, specifically the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline and the National Oil Refinery” will play an integral role in Uganda’s economic growth. Mr Kujawa’s suggestion that the Eacop project’s reliance on foreign investment makes it vulnerable to sanctions comes barely days after the United States (US) updated its travel advisory for Uganda to reflect the recently enacted AHA.
There are growing fears that the level three travel advisory, which Washington says is occasioned by concerns around “a threat of terrorist attacks [and] violent crime, such as armed robbery, home invasion, and sexual assault” will take the winds out of the sails of Uganda’s tourism sector. This as the Ugandan government hedges its bet on the tourism sector.
At a post budget dialogue organised by NTV Uganda and ABSA Bank yesterday, Mr Ramathan Ggoobi—the top technocrat in the Finance ministry—described the tourism sector as “our cash cow.”
While reading the budget for the Financial Year 2023/2024 on Thursday, Mr Kasaija noted that “tourism revenue increased to $847.8 million by April 2023 from $777.8 million in the same period a year ago.” He also basked in the glory of Uganda being “ranked by CNN as one of the top 10 best tourist destinations in the world.”
“We will continue to promote domestic and inbound tourism, including the use of digital platforms,” he revealed, adding that with a Shs249 billion kitty “Uganda will also be marketed as a global and regional centre for meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions. Hospitality standards will be enforced through licensing, grading and classification of tourism facilities.”
Cancelled bookings
Players in the tourism sector, however, are mindful of the risks of the US’s travel advisory for Uganda. Already, cancelled bookings by foreign tourists are coming in thick and fast.
Ms Pamela Amia of Karibu Travel Africa for one told Monitor that “the cancellations were immediate.”
Elsewhere, Mr Dickens Mutegeki, the executive officer of Q Safaris Africa, disclosed that tourists from European countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany have also followed the lead of their American counterparts. “They write an email saying they won’t come and they are okay with paying the charges we put if someone cancels the visit,” Mr Mutegeki told Saturday Monitor, adding that such an outcome “was an anticipated situation.”
Mr Elliot Mugisha of Elliot Tour Travels disclosed that the tour companies that have been affected thus far are those that have been getting tourists attached to non-governmental organisations (NGOs).
“NGOs are sensitive and so far the cancellations we have got are those tourists we get through those NGOs and civil society organisations,” he said.
Mr Abraham Odongo of Kempten Safaris told Monitor that “colleagues in the business have told me they have had tourists coming from the US and Germany cancelling.”
He added that he hopes “this is temporary because [the tourists] will realise that Uganda is peaceful.”
Malicious
One of Uganda’s top diplomats has responded to the US’s travel advisory for Uganda with vitriol. Mr Henry Okello-Oryem, the junior Foreign Affairs minister, did not mince his words on Thursday. He said, while it is the “prerogative” of the US to choose how to wield their travel advisories, Kampala is “not losing sleep over” the latest red flag.
He described the level 3 travel advisory as “malicious”, but hastened to add that tourists from other parts of the world will fill the void created.
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Ms Lilly Ajarova, the chief executive of Uganda Tourism Board (UTB), declined to comment.
The tourism sector, though, was one of the sectors that Mr Kasaija marked out in his budget speech for undergoing “significant recovery” and contributing to the country’s forex. This comes after the Covid-19 pandemic saw tourists drop to 473,085 in 2020 from 1,546,620 in 2019 as per UTB.
“The foreign exchange earnings dropped threefold in 2019 from $1.6 billion that Uganda earned from foreign tourists in 2019 to $500m in 2020,” UTB revealed.
The recovery from the pandemic blow could be stopped in its tracks if, as Mr Yusuf Serunkuma,a socio-political analyst, worries—the United States continues to tighten its screws on Uganda. “The issue here is that the West isn’t happy with AHA and many other sanctions are to follow,” he warned.
The passing of anti-gay Act, according to many political observers, has only exacerbated the fallout between the West and President Museveni who has been key to their security calculations within the region.
“Uganda is no longer a darling of the West. You saw recently the Vice President of America [Ms Kamala Harris] came to Africa and ignored Uganda. She went to Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia, which are deemed to be on a democratic path,” observes Mr Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a political historian at Makerere University’s College of Humanities and Social Sciences.
Bumpy road ahead?
While meeting lawmakers from his National Resistance Movement party at a recent retreat in Kyankwanzi, Mr Museveni asked Ugandans to steel themselves for a bumpy road after he green-lit the anti-gay Act. “You cannot fight a war when you are a pleasure seeker,” he said, adding, “War is not for soft life.”
The Finance minister tried to strike an optimistic note during the budget reading, saying: “Uganda’s economy is projected to grow at 6.0 percent in [the] financial year 2023/2024.”
“Over the next five years, the economy is projected to grow at an average of 6.5-7.0 percent per year,” Mr Kasaija added.
Though the US and the European Union have threatened to dish out a number of sanctions to reflect the recently enacted AHA, government officials believe these might not be far reaching. Some have been emboldened by the recent advertisement of small grants under the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar).
“The US departments of Treasury and State continuously assess actions that may amount to gross violations of human rights. Individual designations are made after completion of a rigorous review process,” Mr Kujawa recently told Monitor, adding, “As provided for under US law, some designations are public, while others are private, depending on the particular circumstances and the specific sanctions-related law that is being applied.”
Government functionaries are, however, confident they can weather the current storm. They point to how Egypt managed to shrug off a travel advisory Washington slapped on it last year on account of terrorism concerns. Empirical evidence shows that the sanctions did not negatively affect Egypt’s tourism industry. Records show that in 2022 ,Egypt was the most visited country in Africa with 11.7 million tourists.
In 2019, the US State Department issued a level 2 travel warning beseeching Americans to “exercise increased caution” in China “due to arbitrary enforcement of local laws as well as special restrictions on dual US-Chinese nationals.” Last year, the State Department issued a level two advisory against its Nato ally Turkey, telling Americans to “exercise increased caution when travelling to Turkey due to terrorism and arbitrary detentions.”
