EAC is facing headwinds but with the right nudges, they can propel take-off

The following events have happened in the last three months, in no particular order. Officials in Kenya blocked plans by Uganda to import oil products directly from traders in the Middle East in order to reduce end-user prices. That followed earlier fights over maize, milk and egg imports from Uganda.

Tanzania announced that it would end all Kenya Airways flights into the country in retaliation for what it said was Nairobi’s refusal to allow Air Tanzania to operate cargo flights out of Kenya. Nairobi swiftly unbuckled its seat belt and disembarked from its high position, but the point had been made.

In the horn, Ethiopia announced it had reached a deal with the autonomous region of Somaliland to build a navy base and obtain access to the sea – something Addis lost after the war and independence of Eritrea three decades ago. The government in Mogadishu, which has struggled to build a nation-state in Somalia, took time out of its political fratricide to protest vigorously against the move, and what they saw as a violation of their territorial integrity.

Farther inland, the Democratic Republic of Congo went to the polls and re-elected President Felix Tshisekedi who had campaigned on an anti-Rwanda platform in an election whose finger-wagging rhetoric sailed very close to the wind.

Rwanda, of course, was unamused, and pushed back by asking Kinshasa to take responsibility for its weak state that allows lawlessness to thrive. But Rwanda did so while keeping an eye on Burundi, which showed Kigali a familiar set of cards and closed the common border in a long-running dispute over each other’s alleged support for insurgent groups.  

To say that the East African Community has seen brighter days is to lean on the scales of restraint and renew empty assurances of highest consideration. Even attempts to defuse the fighting in Sudan sparked more outrage after regional leaders through the IGAD grouping invited the leader of the RSF militia to a meeting in Kampala, leaving out of joint the noses of the powers-that-used-to-be in Khartoum.

Not too long ago we were celebrating the geographical expansion of the EAC from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean in DR Congo, and eagerly awaiting the game-changing entry of Ethiopia. The normative assumption behind regional integration is that opening up borders to the free movement of people, trade and capital makes it harder for invading troops to follow.

This logic still holds true – closed borders are more likely to invite invading troops across – but the EAC is facing its toughest test of unity and structural integrity since it was revived in 1999. There is, of course, the danger that these tensions bring countries to the brink of war and even open conflict, but they could also be good for regional integration and even peace.

First, they are a reminder that domestic instability will always spill over into the neighbourhood in the form of refugees or political exiles. Countries can either help each other to stabilise and integrate on an equal footing, or be forced to integrate by hosting political and economic refugees.

Unstable countries with unresolved internal contradictions are unable to articulate national interests within regional frameworks or even defend their territorial integrity. The EAC will have to find ways of enforcing minimum political cultures, be more willing to intervene in weaker and less stable states, or deal with the spill over effects.

Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland might look untidy but Addis Ababa is only following in the footsteps of Turkey, UAE and other external actors grabbing at a piece of Somalia’s pie. If the Ethiopians are coming, the Somalis should stop pretending to be busy and work faster to pacify and reunite their country.

Second, these conflicts also show that the people of East Africa are, in many aspects, far ahead of their governments and their national border lines. Kenyan technocrats can block Ugandan fuel imports but many motorists in Kampala today are likely to refill at Stabex, a Kenyan-owned ubiquitous chain which seems to open a new outlet every afternoon, or bank with one of the many Nairobi-listed institutions with regional footprints.

Much of the friction between the EAC countries is happening at the top, among the political elite. To stop it from infecting the wananchi, the EAC organs, especially the Secretariat, should busy itself with pushing through the small nudges that are potential game-changers.

Charging EAC citizens local rates boosted regional tourism; it would flourish if taxes on regional air tickets were cut or scrapped. Keeping border posts open round-the-clock and removing visa requirements eased regional travel; it would grow exponentially if border controls were eased further, say for pre-registered motorists.

Making it easier for EAC citizens to work, open bank accounts, start businesses and buy property within the region would allow capital and labour to flow to areas with higher returns. But it would also create a new cosmopolitan class of East Africans bound by interests, not identity.

The weakness of the EAC Secretariat means that a lot of the heavy lifting to return the EAC wagon to the tracks will have to be done by the politicians. Enlightened East Africans who have seen the benefits of open borders should insist that their leaders bury the hatchet, not the dream of regional integration.

Mr Daniel K. Kalinaki is a journalist and  poor man’s freedom fighter. 
[email protected]; @Kalinaki