One-trick pony has run its course

After 35 years at the helm, it has become possible to tell with measured accuracy how the NRM government will move and respond in most situations.

The case of panga wielding murderers terrorizing people in the southern district of Masaka is no different.

When the January 2021 General Election ended with the new Opposition party National Unity Pplatform obliterating the ruling NRM’s dominance in the heart of the populous Central Region of Buganda, the latter responded like a lover scorned.

They said it was the result of ‘tribalism’ that had to be fought. You could guess that this region would be in the news pretty soon.

Now Opposition politicians are accused of being the people behind the murders. The fallacious logic is that the same group that overwhelmingly won the election in the region is now terrorizing their voters to make them hate the NRM government.

Already Opposition MPs Muhammad Ssegirinya and Allan Ssewanyana have been summoned to record statements.

You see some of the arrested suspects have ‘confessed’ that they were misled by the Opposition to foment violence and chaos. For their effort they would allegedly earn Shs100, 000 for every head they chopped.

That is funny because the politicians especially those in Parliament whether Opposition or government, now have their hands full making money at every opportunity to cover up for what they invested in winning their seats. Political activism is now behind them and it is unlikely they will risk getting into such trouble.

It will be interesting to see where this ends. But if the history of the NRM right from the jungles of Luweero is anything to go by then we can safely say this is an old story. To this you can add some incidents in the Northern Ugandan insurgency against the Lord Resistance Army rebels.

Guerilla movements all over the world play the trick of hitting at night and coming in the morning as the sympathizer/rescuer in order to sway their victim to their side. They are like the one trick pony in the circus. They gladly reap from chaos.

The case of Masaka is interesting. While you have a curfew in place, murderers in the dead of the night drop letters and write on walls warning that they will attack a village. They then carry out their threat without fear of being detected or arrested.

What sort of confident criminals are these who blow their own cover and tell their plans on the mountain?

Your guess is as good as mine. We can also conclude that this, too, will pass without anything significant. You may recall we had similar attacks in Masaka in 2017 and 2018.

The Daily Monitor in its edition of January 8, 2018 had an interesting story titled‘Who are behind the attacks in Masaka?’ The President and the then IGP Gen Kale Kayihura vowed to crash the perpetrators. Then there was the case of Nakyambadde.

Some suspects were arrested while victims were compensated. Now we are back to square one.

If one follows past trends of homicides and all manner of killing be it assassinations of people like Joan Kagezi, several Muslim clerics, and the former Assistant IGP Andrew Felix Kaweesi, among others, one notes a similar pattern.

There is an attack that makes news. Then you have the President and security chiefs vowing to finish those bent on disturbing the peace and tranquility ushered in by the NRM government.

Next some suspects mainly Muslims are arrested and detained for interrogation. Sometimes they appear in court with visible torture marks on their bodies. From then on it is back and forth between prison and court.

Bail applications when successful are followed up by armed men usually not in uniform re-arresting the suspects. That creates even more divergent news far away from the original crime.

Then the President and his sidekicks start complaining about the courts being hell bent on frustrating their efforts to fight criminals by offering them bail.

This also creates a talking point that takes the whole debate further away from the original crime for which the suspects were arrested.

Long after you hear more suspects being arrested while others are released for lack of evidence. Four or so years down the road you have the whole matter entirely dropped by the DPP who constitutionally cannot be questioned as to why they discontinue prosecution.

If Masaka is different I will not be one of those who will say ‘I told you so.’

Many in the public are skeptical because of the history where security agents have many times been found to act like hounds hunting with hyenas.

The case of self-confessed criminal Paddy Sserunjoji, a.k.a Sobi, who went on record in the media and said he did some dirty work for the police under IGP Kale Kayihura and got tired. He has never been prosecuted yet people died and were injured as a result of his work.

But all these narratives only make sense if one understands the root cause. Guerilla movements are born out of violence and they thrive on the same. If there is a political question, it works in their favour if it is turned into a martial dilemma that can only be solved by force and not by winning hearts and minds.

Because it has gone on for too long it has become predictable. The one trick pony has run its course.

Mr Sengoba is a commentator on political and social issues

Twitter: @nsengoba