Ghetto Gladiator, Crown Prince, and battle for the Joshua role

“Do you want change or more of the same?”, asked the suave former premier Amama Mbabazi, during his run for the presidency in 2016. He didn’t become president so there is no telling how things would have played out.

It was a telling question because it points to the conundrum Uganda faces, in the battle over defining its future. The weight of it is epitomized by the fact that six years later, it is not clear to most if there has been a change or more of the same.  Some argue that things are getting better – but a majority of these draw their incomes and privileges from the government so it can be argued that they are compromised. The same goes for those who argue that little has changed and that in some cases, we have retrogressed – but they are in opposition or civil society so they get dismissed.

In both instances, there is disagreement over who is qualified to lead us to Canaan. Sadly, these disagreements aren’t always civil and sometimes get marred, leading to deaths, disappearances, disruption of business, and lawlessness. Then there is a third group of those who are caught in the middle and just want things to work for everyone regardless of who is resident at the State House. They have no filial or tribal connections to tap into, and rely on their wits, skills, and willpower to build their dreams – and contribute to a better Uganda.

To do this, they need equitable access to affordable capital and markets for their products and services; they want a guarantee that their children and siblings will access quality education; they want to know that when they or theirs fall sick, whoever is in charge will have done their absolute most to give them a fighting chance; that crime – both by individuals and state actors will be detected, prevented and prosecuted justly.

They need to feel that whoever is in charge is giving them the best chance to succeed – because it doesn’t always feel that way. It increasingly looks like Moses is about to hand over to Joshua for that last mile into the promised land. Question is, will the handover be under duress or out of will? Let’s look at those priming themselves for the Joshua role when the vacancy at the top inevitably opens up.

Let’s start with the “Ghetto Gladiator”, who has had his first stab at the presidency. His is a unique story that you feel will make for a great biopic however it ends. He didn’t come out of nowhere; we saw him rise from the trenches to the apex. What he lacked in the advantages of a privileged and aristocratic upbringing he more than made up for in ingenuity and a never-give-up spirit. Whatever fame, power, and money he has amassed have been a result of sheer hard work, grit, some luck, and impudence. This, you feel, might also explain why the establishment looks at him with such disdain.

The downside is that his only public administration experience is a short stint as a Member of Parliament – and the quality of Uganda’s parliament isn’t the kind for a great audition for the role of President. There is also the small matter of the role of the military in our politics and the region where you feel he falls short. That said, Kyagulanyi’s is the story of almost every young-ish Ugandan, so it can be argued that nobody is more qualified to take over because he knows how muntu-wawansi feels.

So, how about our Crown Prince? Well, he is everything you would expect of someone born and raised in the trappings of power. You experience its allure, what you can do with it and how you can get away with it. He is a military man whose means are orders and repercussions of brute force.

There is little to connect him with the ordinary Ugandan. Add the Museveni fatigue and the potential opposition to dynastic rule, and you have a monumental task. The advantage though is that Uganda is a country run by the army, and NRM can find the financial muscle to overcome its organisational incompetence.  Yet, it can be argued that this proximity to power, background running the army, and diplomatic networks are the very things that qualify him to take over because he already knows how this thing works. We watch and wait.

Mr Rukwengye is the founder, Boundless Minds. @Rukwengye