Here are my prophesies on regional politics and security
Dr Kizza Besigye declared 2019 the year of action. Of course you have heard the remarks that ‘the dictatorship must go before 2021…’ If you have not, I have.
Without being carried away by Dr Besigye’s call for ‘action and the final push against the dictatorship…, here are my prophesies on the geopolitical dynamics and security of the Great Lakes Region in the next two years.
Two former presidents and one sitting president in the region will die. The country whose sitting president will die, will quickly pick up after a constitutional crisis.
About four MPs from one parliament in the region will die. Because parliaments in the region are more of appendages to the executive, there won’t be any serious outrage (even if the circumstances one or two of the deaths will be questionable and worth criminal investigations).
One particular country in the region that I have failed to muster is DR Congo or Democratic Republic of Congo. Because I am always ‘accused’ of being Congolese, it sounds ironical that I am unable to predict or seek godly prophesy over that country.
But my problem lies in the name of the country and many other things; one of which is: in spite of the name, the country is not democratic. Neither is it a Doctor.
The said country has changed its name more than any other African country. And with the change of name, has come change of the instruments or symbols of national identity: the national flag, coat of arms, national anthem (I still like the Zairoise Mobutu one), national football team (from Simba to Leopard and back to Simba).
During the Kabila dynasty, the country has had two national flags.
Don’t laugh… And the reader may want to note that since independence, all presidents of that country have either been Joseph or Desire. Here is the line-up: Joseph Kasavubu, Joseph Desire Mobutu, Laurent Desire Kabila and Joseph Kabange Kabila.
Even as a bona fide witch, how would one predict (least said of prophesising) events in a country that changes its name like pants (each time they have a new president)?
I always write the year-ender for this column inside the DR Congo or as near it as possible (in Kiburara). Unfortunately, I am writing this in my new shrine in jungles of Luweero in central Uganda.
Why? Because I am protesting the postponement of the election date (in DR Congo) from December 23 to December 30. Plus: elections will not take place in Beni and Butembo (the provenance of Congolese Bakonzo known as Bandandi).
Another prophesy is that I will consider retiring this column after the 2021 elections (if they take place anyway) or at the expiry of the famous Kisanja Hakuna Muchezo (May 2021).
In the year 2018, Gen Mugisha Muntu was unable to finalise the registration of a new political party. That the party will be registered in 2019 is a foregone conclusion…; but the first challenge the new party will face is the unnecessary savage confrontation between cadres of Mugisha Muntu’s new political party and cadres of his former political party (Forum for Democratic Change).
Some people say the year 2018 was Bobi Wine’s year. Wrong. Bobi’s year will be 2019. However, the challenge will be for him to pick the fruits of 2019 and use them in the year 2020 (the year of real political business).
As you may know, there is no political business in 2021 save for the delivery of the fruits one picked in the previous year (2020).
In 2019, Mr Sam Ka Ku of Uganda (not Hong Kong) is unlikely to visit the USA.
Happy New 2019.
Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of East African Flagpost.
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