Kenyans are already focused on candidates of 2027 polls

Kenyans held general elections on Tuesday August 9. As I wrote this on Thursday, August 11, the whole region was holding her breath awaiting the announcement of a new President of the Republic of Kenya.

As late as 3pm (Thursday), the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission of Kenya had not (yet) announced the winner of the presidential elections. This scuttled my wish to use this column to send a congratulatory message to the winner.

But at least we know the next president of Kenya will either be Raila Amolo Odinga or William Samoei Ruto. We can take that to the bank. What we cannot take to the bank though is who will be the president of Kenya after the next elections in 2027. Chew on that!

Since we know one of the two men mentioned above will be the next president, focus must now trained on the next elections in 2027. Who will be the main actors in the 2027? On Saturday, March 9, 2013, I published a Facebook post reading: The thing is ‘William the Conqueror’ Ruto; not Uhuru Kenyatta. Next? ‘The fall out.’

My Facebook post was published before Uhuru and Ruto were sworn in as President and Deputy President, respectively in 2013 for their first term of office. Even at that time, some of us smelt that the political friendship of the two would not stand the test of time.

Although the threat of The Hague and the fear of losing power in 2017 created an unsecured bonding, it was easy to detect that the chemistry between Uhuru and Ruto didn’t seem to be organic.

The fall-out I predicted in March 2013 reached its crest on  the August 9, polling day when Uhuru publicly voted Ruto’s opponent. Bear in mind that Ruto is still the Deputy President while Uhuru is the President.

With the Uhuru-Ruto precedence, will Martha and Gachagua be supported by their principals (Raila and Ruto) when the time comes? Will there be a fall out between Ruto and his running mate Gachagua? Will there be a fall-out between Raila and his running mate Martha?

How will 2027 play out? What we can bet on is that whether Ruto wins the 2022 elections or not, he will be expected to be on the ballot paper in 2027; either as president seeking re-election or a challenger.

Whether Raila wins this 2022 election or not, there is a high possibility he may be tempted ‘not to’ run in 2027. Would Raila support Martha Karua’s presidential candidature? Wouldn’t Ruto whitewash her?

In any case, does the 2022 election mark the end of an era of the colonials (politicians born before independence)? Is this the end of Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetangula and the other Kenyan political luminaries born after independence?

Uganda Vs Kenya

Ugandans are all over themselves comparing the smoothness with which the Kenyan electoral commission is running stuff. Most Ugandans would like to be associated with this smoothness. Truth to tell, most Ugandans are partisan in the matter of the Kenya elections. They have candidates.

I am a member of a WhatsApp group whose members are on tenterhooks over their particular choices between Raila and Ruto. I advised them members to stop worrying about the 2022 elections and start thinking about their candidates in the Kenya elections of 2027.

Mr Bisiika is the executive editor of the East African Flagpost. [email protected]