The Uganda energy transition plan

Uganda plans to unveil its energy transition master plan at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates this November. This is in line with our international commitments under the Paris Agreement. 

The overall goals of the Paris Agreement was to, “Substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to hold global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels… and to provide financing to developing countries to mitigate climate change, strengthen resilience and enhance abilities to adapt to climate impacts.” 

The agreement basically sought to limit global greenhouse gas emissions and provide financing to developing countries, a form of climate reparations. The developed world was to pay $100 billion per year to the developing countries as part of the accord. 

The fact is the money has not come and most likely will not come. Be that as it may, Uganda still has commitments under the agreement which it has to meet. Uganda also has the challenge of energy access. The transition for us must not be a transition from darkness to deeper darkness. On the African continent, we have 600 million people with no access to electricity and 900 million with no access to clean cooking methods. 

The climate of darkness must not be allowed to continue on the African continent. The rest of the globe is battling with just the climate crisis. In Africa, we are battling with both a climate crisis and an energy crisis. 

The Uganda energy transition plan is alive to these challenges. It realises that Uganda requires rapid economic development which must be underpinned by universal energy access and by unlocking the depressed demand for energy in Uganda. Energy access must not just be limited to access to a light bulb. Africans need to have more than light bulbs and an ability to charge phones. They need a refrigerator in the house as well. 

The energy master plan will provided the ground work for Uganda to develop what is called an integrated energy resource master plan which shall contain a pipeline of projects to cause universal access to energy. The plan also seeks to find ways of unlocking the elusive climate finance in the context of the Paris Agreement and the just energy transition partnerships. 
Uganda’s energy transition plan must and indeed does include a massive kickstart to our mining sector. Our critical minerals like copper, cobalt, lithium, nickel, to mention a few, are necessary in the development of solar panels and wind turbines. The transition must, therefore, represent a substantial opportunity to lift our societies out of pre industrial backwardness. 

While the world is fighting to simply cut emissions, we must be alive to the fact that by 2050 total final energy consumption will grow in all sectors in Uganda except for residential. Electricity and oil will see the biggest demand increase due to shifts away from traditional use of biomass and growth of the industrial and service sectors.

While the transition represents a significant opportunity, we must not abandon the opportunity that the oil and gas industry gives Uganda. To do that would be a monumental failure on our part. A refinery in Uganda would represent a significant step in the right direction. We must also build the Eacop pipeline which we are currently doing. It is not wrong or immoral to develop these projects. To leave the oil in the ground would be a substantial strategic blunder. 

However, the development of the sector must be done in a responsible manner that is alive to the social and environmental impacts it will have on society. Yes, we must have sustainable development. We must, however, also be alive to the fact that there must be development to sustain. 

With regard to emissions, our greatest source of emissions remains deforestation which is caused by poverty and lack of access to cleaner energy sources for cooking. In less than 25 years, if this challenge of deforestation is not addressed, Uganda could have no more forest cover left. Poverty is now a significant and substantial risk to the environment.  
Uganda’s energy transition plan must be ambitious, futuristic, realistic and optimistic. We need the energy yesterday.

The writer is an advocate and partner at Kampala Associated Advocates 
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