Tame all headwinds to meet 2025 oil output target

After pushing forward against so many headwinds for nearly 20 years, Uganda on Tuesday launched its first oil drilling programme in the Kingfisher field, operated by the China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

This is that “finally” moment for the country’s crude reserves estimated at 6.5 billion barrels, of which 1.4 billion barrels are recoverable.

There are congratulatory messages flying in the air for this key milestone – the government can do a lot of it – but they should be hushed. For one, there are also many licking their lips; they are not looking at the many more rivers the country has to cross as it races to meet its target of first oil output in 2025.

From the head where the Executive has defended gross corruption as a necessary evil for the corrupt to create jobs with their loot, to the tail where scavengers are looking for whatever is falling from the pillage flight, it is a state of vultures.

The next two years is a crunch period, a squeaky bum time, for the oil sector and the country’s envisaged production of 230,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Meeting this target will be significant for the oil sector but also for the country at large after such a long and arduous wait since November 2006 when the President announced the discovery of viable commercial oil reserves in the Albertine graben.

In the past, Mr Yoweri Museveni has justified the extension of his rule – now into 37 years – saying he could not just leave the “oil money for these people to come and spoil.” The President is now up against nature’s clockwork to ensure that he delivers on a resource that has been personal for him over the last 15 years.

This personal attachment to the oil exploration and production should see the 2025 output target executed and delivered seamlessly. And that is only possible if the political and economic dysfunction known as the “oil curse” and its attendant relative called corruption are sent to the cemetery using strong policies.

Meeting the 2025 output target will be crucial in reinforcing public confidence in the oil sector but, more importantly, lay significant steps for the second project area, Tilenga, north of Lake Albert astride River Nile and operated by France’s Total Energies.

There should be nothing except for unforeseen circumstances to delay the output target of 2025. Corruption is not one of those unforeseen circumstances. This should be two years of ‘Mafuta hakuna mchezo’ (there is no play with oil).